clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 My take on the 12Z runs so far is that all of the models stall the storm. Some tuck it more than others. That means someone is going to get blasted under the ccb for a long time. We just dont know who yet. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 One of the things I'm noticing with the GFSv16 is a shift in the max precip field over the last several runs. It has built up the precip field and expanded the area of 1+" QPF, as well as ramping up within where it places the CCB. It has shifted from the Hudson Valley to central PA in the last 3 runs. Perhaps it's starting to catch on to an earlier capture and better mid-level frontogenic placement to the south? Maybe it's still trying to decipher the surface low placement given the nature of the transfer? Maybe it's Maybillene? 1 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Did this thing seriously just give the I-95 corridor 20 inches? Lol Probably the wackiest model run we've seen to date! Except the EURO with 30"+ for central virginia earlier in the week! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Would this be a setup for possible Bay Effect or Enhanced Snow for folks in the Virginia Chesapeake Bay Region. Only seen it happen once in a significant way and it was a similar setup maybe 20 years ago. The storm was pulling away, Mets called for Snowshowers and locations along the bay got an additional 6 inches of of heavy snow. Which side of the bay? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: One of the things I'm noticing with the GFSv16 is a shift in the max precip field over the last several runs. It has built up the precip field and expanded the area of 1+" QPF, as well as ramping up within where it places the CCB. It has shifted from the Hudson Valley to central PA in the last 3 runs. Perhaps it's starting to catch on to an earlier capture and better mid-level frontogenic placement to the south? Maybe it's still trying to decipher the surface low placement given the nature of the transfer? Maybe it's Maybillene? @ers-wxman1 and i were discussing this last night. You'd want to see the precip field expand as the event nears if you're looking for higher numbers. This is a good sign. Hope the other guidance starts picking it up, because that would up confidence on a more widespread high performing event. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There are 2 obvious camps emerging in the guidance... and it involves how they are handling the upstream feature in New England. Those that are diving the vort there further southwest are suppressing the flow (NAM/Euro) and causing the trough to remain more positive with a more suppressed east solution WRT the coastal. Then a camp that is less suppressive with that feature (GFS/PARA/ICON). The GGEM/RGEM are kind of in between and so we see probably the ideal result for 95. There is honestly no way to know for sure what is going to happen with that feature in New England, but it holds the key here IMO. So I'm wondering how long it'll be before we know what happens with that feature? Maybe not till gametime? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There are 2 obvious camps emerging in the guidance... and it involves how they are handling the upstream feature in New England. Those that are diving the vort there further southwest are suppressing the flow (NAM/Euro) and causing the trough to remain more positive with a more suppressed east solution WRT the coastal. Then a camp that is less suppressive with that feature (GFS/PARA/ICON). The GGEM/RGEM are kind of in between and so we see probably the ideal result for 95. There is honestly no way to know for sure what is going to happen with that feature in New England, but it holds the key here IMO. Wonder when the short wave trough up in New England gets modeled correctly? Jack Sillin mentioned this feature this morning and I posted about it, as you may be aware. I could speculate that if the afternoon Euro today comes in more GFS/PARA /ICON-ish then maybe we can feel a little more confident that it will not be a negative factor for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Which side of the bay? Lol Im on western side...Northern Neck of Virgiinia....ive seen it happen in past storms in VA beach where the storms cranks and winds flow from due north down the bay and create bay effect....things have to be just right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: Im on western side...Northern Neck of Virgiinia....ive seen it happen in past storms in VA beach where the storms cranks and winds flow from due north down the bay and create bay effect....things have to be just right.... That would be pretty cool, I'm sure the bay is warm enough for it given how warm it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, frd said: Wonder when the short wave trough up in New England gets modeled correctly? Jack Sillin mentioned this feature this morning and I posted about it, as you may be aware. I could speculate that if the afternoon Euro today comes in more GFS/PARA /ICON-ish then maybe we can feel a little more confident that it will not be a negative factor for us. I don't know but its obvious from the drastic shifts in guidance run to run and how closely those shifts correspond to the handling of that feature in New England, that its volatile and delicate. The guidance is having a really hard time getting a handle on what that little vort is going to do and it has a great effect on our system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I don't know but its obvious from the drastic shifts in guidance run to run and well closely those shifts correspond to the handling of that feature in New England, that its volatile and delicate. The guidance is having a really hard time getting a handle on what that little vort is going to do and it has a great effect on our system. Very true, one small feature can have dramatic effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Which model is the NWS relying on because I don't really understand why it has a significant ice storm for the area. From my understanding the only models that really are behind this are the Nam models. I just don't really understand why it has this, the GFS just has a switch to rain and back to snow. The Euro is snow and so are a bunch of other models. Am I just not understanding something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Para snows here from Sunday morning to Wednesday morning. I’d be ok with that 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Which model is the NWS relying on because I don't really understand why it has a significant ice storm for the area. From my understanding the only models that really are behind this are the Nam models. I just don't really understand why it has this, the GFS just has a switch to rain and back to snow. The Euro is snow and so are a bunch of other models. Am I just not understanding something? The NAM typically models the low-lvl CAD better, and sometimes can catch onto a stronger LLJ advecting in a warm nose aloft (it did well in diagnosing the sleet storm that impacted SE PA in December that a lot of the other guidance didn't handle well)... but it can also be overdone in this LLJ at times... it did this in the warm christmas heavy rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Which model is the NWS relying on because I don't really understand why it has a significant ice storm for the area. From my understanding the only models that really are behind this are the Nam models. I just don't really understand why it has this, the GFS just has a switch to rain and back to snow. The Euro is snow and so are a bunch of other models. Am I just not understanding something? Thinking historically it's a good idea to mention all the precip types. In coastal storms with uncertain temperature profiles we can see any type of precipitation. UKMET looks great to me, delivers some backend love with cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 UK is a picture perfect capture/stall location for our area. Hopefully the euro follows. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 UKMET coming in hot 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: UK is a picture perfect capture/stall location for our area. Hopefully the euro follows. Is there a sharp northern cutoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: UK is a picture perfect capture/stall location for our area. Hopefully the euro follows. 12z so far: Ukie, GGEM, GFS, RGEM, Para, ICON vs 12k nam 3 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdcrob Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Is that every model except the NAM on board with a clean, big solution for DC and immediate burbs now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I know they may not be as useful anymore but can anyone shed light on if the GEFS generally supports the OP? Didnt see a post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: UKMET coming in hot Having the UKMET support the GFS, GEM and ICON makes me feel a lot better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: UKMET coming in hot Same as yesterday afternoon - 13" for DC metro area. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 IF (huge mega if) we do get the further southwest capture/stall option guidance will underdo the snowfall in that deform bad. That is a 90% given. They also will miss the NW deathband...we all know that. But that only works out if we actually get the close to the coast capture stall option...if the storm swings out too wide due to a positive tilt precipitated by the flow too suppressive in front...the area will be robbed of the moisture transport we need off the coastal as the upper low swings through and it will just be instability disorganized areas of snow. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, MD Snow said: 12z so far: Ukie, GGEM, GFS, RGEM, Para, ICON vs 12k nam That's not a fight, it's a homicide. As long as the Euro doesn't move farther south, I think we're looking good. If it holds or inches back northwestward with the coastal, then I think we get rolling. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: UK is a picture perfect capture/stall location for our area. Hopefully the euro follows. The evolution was perfect for I-95. It's likely underdone too in the intensity department given the dynamics and strength of the 85H and 7H lows. The placement was great though. A good sign 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: Is there a sharp northern cutoff? Not as bad as on the RGEM/GGEM. My area kind of is in a screw zone of subsidence between bands but that is not something I am going to worry about at this range...and we all know that if the southern PA/northern MD area gets into the actual CCB good banding will set up here due to oragraphic influences. Mappy's area gets absolutely crushed with one of those bands but the UK has some weird dry pockets mixed in that screw over some areas (me) lol. Even if that were true it wont nail that from this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Which model is the NWS relying on because I don't really understand why it has a significant ice storm for the area. From my understanding the only models that really are behind this are the Nam models. I just don't really understand why it has this, the GFS just has a switch to rain and back to snow. The Euro is snow and so are a bunch of other models. Am I just not understanding something? Looks like we're also still 'orange' for a winter storm threat. Can we at least get red? lol I think it's a better safe than sorry-just in case type deal. Throw in everything when there's still some uncertainty.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I just want the Euro to stop the suppression trend it has had for like the last 24 hours... even if it doesn't come in line with the better captures depicted by the other guidance, if it at least stabilizes near where it was, it would at least make the lower end cut-off a little clearer for this event. Because if it keeps trending more suppressed the floor on this event would be pretty low for anyone NW of I-95 (and maybe even near I-95, depending on how certain we think the initial WAA thump will be given the transfer in progress and the antecedent dry airmass). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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