stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro is 10”+ for DC and points north. Pretty uniform evolution among the guidance back to a close tuck near OCMD and stall or slow movement for 24hrs or so from Monday through early Tuesday. Given that, I think the Ukie and Euro are still fairly dry...not that I think the RGEM is right, but that position for that much time would argue for a moister flow off the ocean. May come down to small differences in the LLJ orientation. We want it with a bit more fetch off the ocean vs fetch off New Jersey and Philly lol. Either way, fun long duration storm. I’m ready. Your lips to God's ears. Obviously the RGEM is way overdone, lol....but a solution in the middle would have been nice. As it is, Euro is a keeper. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Lol euro gives you a pretty nice parting shot on the way out early Tuesday @CAPE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Should I still be worried about suppression? I'm totally good with the euro's progression. Surface and mid level low placement def keeps my yard in the game. CCB won't be locked in for nearly 48 hours. Dont run yourself ragged tracking red schlongs. It will move around, grow, and shrink like it has a mind of it's own every 6 hours. You have no idea how refreshing it is to have your reasoned, sound input back in here Bob. This is the same old game folks. If the storm does what it needs to do as far as evolution is concerned and it tucks, we’re in great shape. Obsessing over the the location of the CCB 36+ hours out is going to drive you insane and get ya nowhere. We’ve been dealt a great poker hand in a Nina winter , let’s see if the dealer flips over the river card that gives us the straight flush. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: There's really not much to hate on the Euro. I know my area/climo, you have a better chance at the CCB than I do, but I don't care how I get there, if I get 10 as shown on the Euro, I'm fine. I suspect it will be less. But then again, I never brought into double digits for my backyard, so I'm going to enjoy 5 or 10. It's fine I suppose. We look to mix but if its for the greater good of everyone else then that's what has to happen like it does all other storms we mix and others rip fatties. A shift a little more S would be nice to see or some better front end. We know what happens when the CCB sets up over the...wait for it....usual areas. That sinking air dies off and anyone outside the deform is looking at grey skies. My top end has been 8" If I get 5" that's more than what's I've had TOTAL the last 3 years. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Lol euro gives you a pretty nice parting shot on the way out early Tuesday @CAPE Yeah the CMC had it, more so on the 0z run, and I thought the GFS was going there but it was just light stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro ptype looks wonky, with that low position, after initial WAA thump, would probably be mostly rain SE of I-95, so not trusting its explicit ptype in the CCB... hard to tell with thermals at this point on a global model but accumulating snow in a Miller B coastal at that latitude seems unlikely unless precip intensity was very high. Good setup NW of I-95 though. Will still take 3-6 assuming rain doesn't melt it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, H2O said: It's fine I suppose. We look to mix but if its for the greater good of everyone else then that's what has to happen like it does all other storms we mix and others rip fatties. A shift a little more S would be nice to see or some better front end. We know what happens when the CCB sets up over the...wait for it....usual areas. That sinking air dies off and anyone outside the deform is looking at grey skies. My top end has been 8" If I get 5" that's more than what's I've had TOTAL the last 3 years. Ah so you didn't get in on the Jan 2019 snowfall either? I know DC got a foot but fringed north, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Your lips to God's ears. Obviously the RGEM is way overdone, lol....but a solution in the middle would have been nice. As it is, Euro is a keeper. I don’t think you can find some massive difference in a dynamical reason between the absurd Canadian solution and the still quite nice euro. It’s not like the Canadian has a 10mb deeper low or something. Just comes down to where the moisture gets transported. Does south central PA get it straight off the ocean with us getting the leftovers? Or do we get the purest of the pure certified 100% fresh Gulf Stream moist flow? And I think that is just a little detail of how the 700, 850, and 925mb lows are oriented. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 From @MillvilleWx’s lips to my ears. Really digging todays trends for our area @psuhoffman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I know it is getting too close in for EPS ensembles but some RGEM hits in there... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Instant stickage for sure matter the rate . It's been solidly cold for days and it's late January. I'm hoping for.(.30" qpf) from waa round . Should yield 3-5" easy Agreed. I’m really liking the trends for our neck of the woods. We saw what lingering deform could do sitting over us in the 2/10/10 storm. Just dumped high ratio fluff for hours. Not afraid to say I’m thinking 12-18 for us with a chance at more if these trends continue. I mean, that’s still less than half what the RGEM gave us right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: I know it is getting too close in for EPS ensembles but some RGEM hits in there... Not too close to use the EPS for the coastal. For part 1, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Instant stickage for sure matter the rate . It's been solidly cold for days and it's late January. Ground is ripe. I'm hoping for.(.30" qpf) from waa round . Should yield 3-5" easy Yup and the top layer of soil is dry as a bone for the first time here in many months, not to mention it's been frozen the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: I know it is getting too close in for EPS ensembles but some RGEM hits in there... That’s 6z not 12z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: From @MillvilleWx’s lips to my ears. Really digging todays trends for our area @psuhoffman Absolutely. Us northern tier folks are setting up for hopefully an easy foot+ if the CCB performs. Let’s keep those trends going. Put a 995 there for 24 hours with a vertically stacked and stalled low and were going to puke it up. You can’t take something like the RGEM verbatim but it’s evolution is similar to other models. The main difference is it maximized dynamics and FGEN our right over the S PA/ CMD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 57 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Part of the reason I've backed off on this hobby is models are just gigantic math calculators where errors compound with time. Focusing on specifics with qpf (like 20 mile shifts or distribution) is simply not the way. It has never worked like that nor will it when I croak (i aint no spring rooster). It's much more accurate to compare the storm to every single similar one you can remember with how it broke for your yard. Drawing off personal experience COMBINED with giant atmospheric math calculator output with time based compounding errors gives a much clearer picture than tracking the exact placement of red horse schlongs. Now we see consensus (again) for a tucked crawl. I already know I'm walking a line with part 2 but if I'm going to get ccb'd, getting tucked up is where it's at. Speaking of tucked up, I'm just about 4 years since I quit drinking. If I can't get *ucked up then getting tucked up is the next best thing OMG. First two paragraphs my mantra. You are exactly right. They try to do too much, try to be too detailed and too far in advance. A binocular like approach instead of a microscope is the way to go. Now you are rightly somewhat sainted here so you won’t get lambasted for your comments. And then you delve into the even more verboten references to personal experiences and analogs of many other similar storms! Wonderful post by you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The transfer was clean and very similar to the overnight runs of the Euro. One of the things that would make this better is if the 700mb low were to be about 25-50 miles further south. The deformation axis still gets down efficiently into the northern and northeast portion of the sub-forum with heavy snow for several hours north of I-70 and further NE. Even to the south, there would be high ratio fluff that would fall for hours, slowly accumulating with a final storm total of 8-12" from I-66 to Howard Co. Then 10-15" with local to 20" to the north. It was a great run for @mappy and @psuhoffman as it held serve from previous runs, and was in line with the GFS/CMC. One of the biggest differences from previous runs is it actually upped total precip within the deformation zone, so amounts are a touch higher north of I-70. It was closer to a bigger run for the whole sub-forum so chalk another up to a slight positive trend. Really exellent post man. Love it and agree. Personally, I'm pretty stoked to be in an area of the "fgen wildcard". When that coastal gets cranking, there will be rapidly expanding fgen bands pushing outwards. No model can figure fgen jacks until the coastal is resolved. Obviously I'm not in a prime location but I never am. I fully expect thundersnow in our area or just to N-NE. Get under one of those and you can add 3-6" in the amount of time it takes to watch a movie.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12-18+ seems really like a reasonable total for areas North of Baltimore city headed into Northern Delaware and Jersey. Everyone will do well tho it seems! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Really exellent post man. Love it and agree. Personally, I'm pretty stoked to be in an area of the "fgen wildcard". When that coastal gets cranking, there will be rapidly expanding fgen bands pushing outwards. No model can figure fgen jacks until the coastal is resolved. Obviously I'm not in a prime location but I never am. I fully expect thundersnow in our area or just to N-NE. Get under one of those and you can add 3-6" in the amount of time it takes to watch a movie.. Couldn't agree more. This will be a rapidly developing cyclone with intense 7H dynamics as shown by models for several days now. You're going to have snowballs falling from the sky considering the massive lift across the region. CCB love is so hard to fully pin down, and the GFS/CMC also had a bit of a TROWAL signature on Monday night as the storm begins to occlude. I'd love to see the theta-E analysis and satellite when it gets to that time. Wish I was home for this one man. Cheers to large fatties falling while ripping a few fatties 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Couldn't agree more. This will be a rapidly developing cyclone with intense 7H dynamics as shown by models for several days now. You're going to have snowballs falling from the sky considering the massive lift across the region. CCB love is so hard to fully pin down, and the GFS/CMC also had a bit of a TROWAL signature on Monday night as the storm begins to occlude. I'd love to see the theta-E analysis and satellite when it gets to that time. Wish I was home for this one man. Cheers to large fatties falling while ripping a few fatties Sounds like a good plan all around! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: 12-18+ seems really like a reasonable total for areas North of Baltimore city headed into Northern Delaware and Jersey. Everyone will do well tho it seems! NE MD pummeled? 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: Euro ptype looks wonky, with that low position, after initial WAA thump, would probably be mostly rain SE of I-95, so not trusting its explicit ptype in the CCB... hard to tell with thermals at this point on a global model but accumulating snow in a Miller B coastal at that latitude seems unlikely unless precip intensity was very high. Will still take 3-6 assuming rain doesn't melt it all. There's a pretty consistent emergence of a warm layer on most guidance between ~800-900 mb (except the GEM/RGEM) ; 850-mb temperatures generally get above freezing up to the MD-PA border between 06-12z on the Euro. The duration of snowfall from the coastal low will depend on the degree of mesoscale forcing and the low track, and these features are highly correlated since the best mesoscale forcing is north of the 700-mb low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, jayyy said: You have no idea how refreshing it is to have your reasoned, sound input back in here Bob. This is the same old game folks. If the storm does what it needs to do as far as evolution is concerned and it tucks, we’re in great shape. Obsessing over the the location of the CCB 36+ hours out is going to drive you insane and get ya nowhere. We’ve been dealt a great poker hand in a Nina winter , let’s see if the dealer flips over the river card that gives us the straight flush. All major storms have the same things to worry about and be excited about. I dont like to focus on the worry side until I have to. I could make a list of 5 reasons to worry and repost it with every single storm day after day too but theres like 50 people here who already do that. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: 12-18+ seems really like a reasonable total for areas North of Baltimore city headed into Northern Delaware and Jersey. Everyone will do well tho it seems! I'd keep it 8-12 along I 95 until NNJ. Just too much room for a dryslot and mixing. to go with a blockbuster there. Going to need major tuck to get it. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I know it’s way to close for the eps but it’s a bump up for the WAA portion of the storm. I like the trend there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I know it’s way to close for the eps but it’s a bump up for the WAA portion of the storm. I like the trend there.It’s never to close for good news IMO. Definitely more wet for everyone which is great news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: It’s never to close for good news IMO. Definitely more wet for everyone which is great news. Annnd just like that...sends the deform further north than 6z, but we can toss that part lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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