JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I wasn't expecting the GEFS mean to look this good 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, H2O said: We need to get some old man sag to the south just a bit more. But if that actually does happen then let’s just have this one time where the GEM scores a 1.00 verification I think we’re still well within the southern range of solutions. We’ll see what the Euro has to say, but we only need a out a 50-mile more souther capture and we’re in the goods. Staying interested, even if not expectant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, H2O said: We need to get some old man sag to the south just a bit more. But if that actually does happen then let’s just have this one time where the GEM scores a 1.00 verification Hugging the crap out of the Canadians. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 We're a little over 12 hours from the onset. For the those in the know, for a storm like this with the forecast long duration and complexities involved, if you had one model at your disposal to analyze and hug, which one would it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 No Euro yet obviously, but I like where we sit. Most of us are comfortably in the zone for decent action from the deform, and some have us right in the thick of it while most models show us just a bit south of ideal. I'd feel real good if I lived between extreme Northern MD and the York area, Mappy, PSU, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Hugging the crap out of the Canadians. Only the RGEM it's 3X as much for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: I think we’re still well within the southern range of solutions. We’ll see what the Euro has to say, but we only need a out a 50-mile more souther capture and we’re in the goods. Staying interested, even if not expectant. Has the trend with the 12Z been well north? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Hugging the crap out of the Canadians. I read on another forum that the CMC and the RGEM are both too amped based on current OBS and should be taken with a grain of salt. This means the low tucks in too far west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, RDM said: We're a little over 12 hours from the onset. For the those in the know, for a storm like this with the forecast long duration and complexities involved, if you had one model at your disposal to analyze and hug, which one would it be? The one that gives you the most snow, duh! Nah, I'd never really want to hug just one model, but gun to my head, it's still the Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 New winter storm warnings have been posted. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: I read on another forum that the CMC and the RGEM are both too amped based on current OBS and should be taken with a grain of salt. This means the low tucks in too far west We lost 5-6" from the 0z run lol. The banding on the back side was better for our area than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Ukie has finally moved the max where the other models have it. Extreme northern md through southern Pa. main WAA is central va still and DC kinda misses both. Still a good storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Still off OC at 66 lol 993mb The UKIE is way too dry for that evolution. That would smack the forum pretty solidly. Hell, it's not bad as is. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, RDM said: We're a little over 12 hours from the onset. For the those in the know, for a storm like this with the forecast long duration and complexities involved, if you had one model at your disposal to analyze and hug, which one would it be? Is this a real question? ALWAYS the snowiest. ALWAYS. Intelligent, logical, or completely opposite, that how this game works 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 20 minutes ago, RDM said: We're a little over 12 hours from the onset. For the those in the know, for a storm like this with the forecast long duration and complexities involved, if you had one model at your disposal to analyze and hug, which one would it be? Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, RDM said: We're a little over 12 hours from the onset. For the those in the know, for a storm like this with the forecast long duration and complexities involved, if you had one model at your disposal to analyze and hug, which one would it be? We are about 12 hours away from first of the storm which is pretty much set in stone. The second is 36 hours away. The second part is where the real uncertainty comes into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: Ukie has finally moved the max where the other models have it. Extreme northern md through southern Pa. main WAA is central va still and DC kinda misses both. Still a good storm though. Seems like 4-6 from the front end and 2-4 from the backend, I feel like everyone will take in DC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, arlwx said: New winter storm warnings have been posted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I know it’s overdone but man that 12Z RGEM is ridiculous. I can’t stop playing it over and over again. Total snow porno. 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Is this a real question? ALWAYS the snowiest. ALWAYS. Intelligent, logical, or completely opposite, that how this game works Now if I'm forced to actually use my brain, set aside all bias, and be honest.... Euro of course for today. Mesos tomorrow for the waa but still euro for monday. Once monday rolls around, if models are still uncertain where the ccb is, just let it happen. Radar and satellite trump models imho in real time with ccb 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'm thinking 2 inch qpf widespread and 3 inch qpf in reality locally with a low hanging and spinning wheels at OC for hours and hours? Something like 1-1.3" SW of DC with 1.5-2" between DC-Balt. Then north of I-70 like 1.8-2.3" up to the border. It was like a perfect positioning with GFS QPF. A beat down would occur over the northern tier 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 CWG has an updated map out that isn't drastically different: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/30/washington-dc-winter-storm-snow/#click=https://t.co/fpM4o6Jh69 imrs.webp 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12z JMA through 72 hours with a precip max of 1.25-1.50 qpf for north east md/southeast pa. Has the rest of us (most of md) at 1-1.25". Using limited maps on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Part of the reason I've backed off on this hobby is models are just gigantic math calculators where errors compound with time. Focusing on specifics with qpf (like 20 mile shifts or distribution) is simply not the way. It has never worked like that nor will it when I croak (i aint no spring rooster). It's much more accurate to compare the storm to every single similar one you can remember with how it broke for your yard. Drawing off personal experience COMBINED with giant atmospheric math calculator output with time based compounding errors gives a much clearer picture than tracking the exact placement of red horse schlongs. Now we see consensus (again) for a tucked crawl. I already know I'm walking a line with part 2 but if I'm going to get ccb'd, getting tucked up is where it's at. Speaking of tucked up, I'm just about 4 years since I quit drinking. If I can't get *ucked up then getting tucked up is the next best thing 15 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, frd said: This looks acceptable No thanks. Fringed! I will take the 12Z RGEM with a side of the Euro from 3 days ago, please. I like today’s trends with the low transferring more south and spinning itself and our backyards into oblivion and beyond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I also wanted to add 2 more points. Climo is climo for a reason. Latitude, topography, proximity to the coast, and shape of the coastline defines climo. Storms behave in similar fashion for really good reasons. Central PA and N MD get big totals that wouldnt happen in my yard even if the storm went south because orographic influence is powerful. Just like deep creek getting hit with lake effect, C PA and N MD has an extra physical feature to wring out the sponge. I asked my wife if we could buy sugarloaf and move it to my back yard for this reason. She told me it sounds like a great idea if you're legally insane. Well... I am so... 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 28 minutes ago, Quasievil said: I know it’s overdone but man that 12Z RGEM is ridiculous. I can’t stop playing it over and over again. Total snow porno. You are going to grow hair on your palms. Dear snow gods, please let the RGEM be right! I think that solution pleases the most people in this sub. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, WesternFringe said: You are going to grow hair on your palms. Dear snow gods, please let the RGEM be right! I think that solution pleases the most people in this sub. We will all win with the RGEM and will relieve so much tension between many people. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AACOUNTYMD Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hello Everyone. I contribute nothing but I love lurking, so I hope you will forgive me if I ask a question- I am tucked in along the western part of the Bay between Annapolis and Baltimore. I think I am in a pretty good spot, and we have a watch for 4-8. However, my weather app simply says freezing rain for sunday and monday? Can anyone help explain that? I haven't seen long duration freezing rain called for by any of the models over the last several days. . . ? Thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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