Rhino16 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Are there people out there who don’t like 40” of snow? Like.... 12-18” is their “ideal storm” and 24+ is just “too much”? If so, they need to get checked out. They’ve lost their weenie way! Would that much snow cause damage? I mean... We are the same people hoping to see tornadoes in summertime so... (anyway, back on topic) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Gfs just never develops the healthy ccb once it stalls off the Delmarva. Still gets wrap around snows after the thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Are there people out there who don’t like 40” of snow? Like.... 12-18” is their “ideal storm” and 24+ is just “too much”? If so, they need to get checked out. They’ve lost their weenie way! That’s like 90% of the population. You just won’t find any in here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Nice shift south though compared to 6z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 GFS was a step in the right direction IMO not there yet but for being a crappy model I dont hate it. Maybe it will catch on by OOz lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Gfs just never develops the healthy ccb once it stalls off the Delmarva. Still gets wrap around snows after the thump. maybe its lack of high resolution? It has healthy snow through 12z Tuesday but not heavy but it did take a step towards the RGEM in terms of features 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 WB 12Z GFS v 6z. Nice tick South 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: GFS was a step in the right direction IMO not there yet but for being a crappy model I dont hate it. Maybe it will catch on by OOz lol Another shift South , more focus Northern Delaware area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Craziest part about that RGEM run is we’ve never been terribly far away on models from having the low get captured and transfer earlier / further south as its showing here. The players have always been on the field for a biggie, as PSU keeps saying, but they just never really aligned on any model until now. Slight differences in the timing of the transfer, the track of the primary, ridging out west, the vort diving south on the back end, the track of the 700mb low, etc have left us within an insane range of solutions. Everything finally lined up on the Rgem and that’s the final product. Of course we shouldn’t expect these totals, but it’s been insanely consistent, and if others models trend in its direction... look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: maybe its lack of high resolution? It has healthy snow through 12z Tuesday but not heavy but it did take a step towards the RGEM in terms of features Yeah...looking at everything that run was better but the surface was just like you said, moderate stuff. I’ll hang on the lower resolution excuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: That's certainly interesting and a significant trend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 thoughts on the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 WB 12Z v 6Z GFS total precipitation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Para may be going South a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Next up, the 12z CMC. Should have it on TT at around 3pm 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: That's certainly interesting and a significant trend. One more tick towards more ns interaction would likely mean a huge hit for everybody, and then suddenly the RGEM wouldn't be such a fantasy anymore... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 the PARA looks interesting if it could just pass the 42 hour frame 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The 7H evolution on the NAM is completely different from the GFS and Euro, and is absolutely nothing like the RGEM. The RGEM develops the 7H low to our south over central VA, then goes bonkers as it pivots slowly underneath us. The NAM hangs on the 7H low out in the OH Valley for a long time before finally transferring to the coast, leading to a late capture and keeping the best frontongen to the north. The GFS/Euro is fairly similar, but one thing I've noticed is the orientation of the 700mb low is very SW to NE, which places the mid-level frontogen just off to the north, leading to NE MD to SE PA on northeast getting slammed. A slight adjustment in the capture and/or a more N-S oriented 700mb low like the aggressive models have could be all the difference in the world in the positioning of the CCB through part of the sub-forum. I will say one thing, the trends so far have been positive, outside the NAM 12km, so keep the faith. If I had to guess, right now the area north of I-70 has the best chance to see the most CCB action with Carroll Co on eastward the highest opportunity. Models still have a lot to figure out and I see this going to the 11th hour. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, jayyy said: Holy shit I’ve missed you If my yard gets screwed I can assure you that you will change your mind 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 no dice on the para--still too north for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z v 6Z GFS total precipitation. 12z def has a bigger red horse schlong but still not in the right place. Maybe euro will put the schlong in my yard 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Para actually moved south, not a huge amount, but hey...keeping with the small trend 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html that looks like the RGEM. is that RGEM or GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 GFS and Euro seem to be in pretty great agreement now on snow totals for the cities and Maryland. I'm 11.5" on GFS and 13.5" on the Euro. You GOTTA feel good about that given snow will be starting soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Ji said: no dice on the para--still too north for us Looks good to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Looks good to me well you are in skanksville...you have a better chance 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: that looks like the RGEM. is that RGEM or GGEM? I always thought this was GGEM....it goes out past 84 and looks a little different to my untrained eye.... someone smarter than me can comment on that though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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