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Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD


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3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Just like any other model. It has its biases, however in recent events it’s been more conservative when the GFS would bust high. It’s improving. 

if this is actually snow on the icon and not rain...............

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_17.png

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1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Seems like it's got thermal issues, gets pretty much everyone in MD not in the Appalachians into rain for a long period of time.

No ice feature on the model, I believe it only shows rain and snow, at least on TT. It has all snow in good bands with the low tucked near the coast all the way into 03z Wednesday. Overdone? Perhaps, but so is RGEM. Perhaps though we are seeing signals that the better stuff might be shifting south again. That’s how I would take it.

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2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Anybody know how the RGEM has been doing at this range?

Been targeting that general area for the last 36 hours, sometimes DC, sometimes Northern Delaware. 

ICON ticked South , maybe a trend, still way too complicated. 

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RGEM / ICON shift in guidance is what I was alluding to last night. Just keep my (or your) yard in the game. Unlikely that all of 12z follows but having a couple runs (and not a freakshow outlier) keep my yard in the envelope for big totals is a big win. 

Again, these storms almost ALWAYS do unexpected things in real time. I just want to know I have a chance so I dont feel compelled to troll and stir up chit

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