Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Too much dry slot. We ain't even sniffing the deform band on the NAMs Many hours of light rain/drizzle and then some snizzle and a few snow showers once the upper levels cool. Maybe an inch or so on the back end. That's Miller B climo for this region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Too much dry slot. We ain't even sniffing the deform band on the NAMs Many hours of light rain/drizzle and then some snizzle and a few snow showers once the upper levels cool. Maybe an inch or so on the back end. Yeah that's pretty lame. But its a step in the right direction. Edit: it's probably not gonna go our way in the end. It's easier to hope for CCB further east but what good is that anyways when it's all washed away by 12 hours of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: That's Miller B climo for this region. Yeah I know, but eastern areas can sometimes cash in on the sw edge of a developing coastal. I wont mention Boxing day 2010. oops. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 What's up with the off runs of the euro being better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 After all the potential this has shown all week, anything less than 8-10” is a disappointment for many. Let’s see how the GFS comes in here soon. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: After all the potential this has shown all week, anything less than 8-10” is a disappointment for many. Let’s see how the GFS comes in here soon. Practically EVERY SINGLE STORM is a disappointment to many. Nobody knows our yards like we do. Gotta combine modelism with IMBY'ism and adjust accordingly. PSU was only freaking out this week because storms like this often crush his yard and models werent showing that. They were showing "unusual yard jacks" and it was very troubling to him 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, LeesburgWx said: After all the potential this has shown all week, anything less than 8-10” is a disappointment for many. Let’s see how the GFS comes in here soon. I'll be happy with 4 inches, which is a reasonable expectation given climo and the 6z suite. I think it's going to be hard to avoid the CCB being between Philly and NYC or a dryslot/changeover for part of the storm. But who knows. That's the fun of this hobby, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 hours ago, CAPE said: I never thought there was enough confluence with this one. The NA vortex is on the move as this system slowly evolves, so we lose the 'suppressive' element and the mechanism to keep the cold feed from the NE as the transfer is unfolding. I knew early on that there would be some rain here, and why I never bought the somewhat suppressed/colder Euro runs. I don’t think the confluence is the problem. That has to be moving out as the storm arrives or it can’t amplify on the coast and we get a weaker sinking wave and no coastal at all. The problem is the angle of that last vort of the pinwheel to our north comes down in a bad spot and as the trough to our west feels the influence it stretches out positively tilted. That wasn’t on guidance 5 days ago when we were getting 30” bomb solutions here. Confluence has reversed and backed off the last few runs but is still slightly MORE then those epic runs. What changed us the trough being positive on approach which then makes the transfer and capture process take a little longer. Longer pushes that process further up the coast since the low will be gaining latitude UNTIL its captured then it stalls and pinwheels. But we need that sooner v later. We simply need a quicker phase unfortunately if we’re being honest the model bias is typically the wrong way with this and if anything the phase tends to happen slower. Not always though. And the trough is trending better (less positive) the last few runs of the euro and the NAM made a significant jump south at 12z. So DC is still in the ccb game. But the interaction between the wave in the Midwest and that last NS SW to rotate around the Atlantic vortex is what hurt us imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 RGEM is rolling on https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html and is out through 48. Front end looks good and precip is just changing back to snow through the cities. Will need to wait for the more thorough maps on TT, etc but I liked what I saw on here at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: RGEM is rolling on https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html and is out through 48. Front end looks good and precip is just changing back to snow through the cities. Will need to wait for the more thorough maps on TT, etc but I liked what I saw on here at least. I will hug it until something better comes. 7am change Monday morning with good precip rotating back through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don’t think this is a typical Miller B fail setup. Typically you’ve got a low that’s on a heading south of east that is in the process of transferring as the WAA precip is moving in to a low on the coast that immediately starts moving off to the ne. This low isn’t transferring until after the WAA precip is already through the area to a low almost on the South Carolina border on some models that is crawling. Not typical at all IMO. The reason that I think the WAA is a bit more lean is that the primary is a little further south than it was originally. Look in southern Va. The NAM is spitting out over an inch of WAA precip. It isn’t drying up. It’s just a little south. It’s a trade. Little south early enhances our chances with the main low. Just my thoughts. I don't know man. This looks pretty much how we get screwed every time in a Miller B to me. Yes. The Eps has targeted our area for 5 days straight at this point. So there is some reason to be optimistic. But I was counting on the waa thump to be the bulk of our snow. This mornings runs seem to be targeting us with an outer band. Similar to what we would see in a Miller A. But I don't know if the coastal is gonna bomb in time for that to happen out here. And counting on that for the bulk of our snow is almost always a losing proposition here. I had low expectations anyways. Because it's a Miller B. 6 inches is a win for us IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Icon looks good. Faster and further south development of the coastal. Tucks into the eastern shore with nice banding into many areas by 00z Tue. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: Hello 2-3” per hour rates. Hope you guys get crushed. Good to see chill. He’s the man @bobchill 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 As long as my kids can go sledding this is a win! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Rgem destroys Baltimore, wiped off the map lol 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Mother of Mercy, RGEM! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Rgem destroys Baltimore, wiped off the map lol As it should be 4 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Icon looks good. Faster and further south development of the coastal. Tucks into the eastern shore with nice banding into many areas by 00z Tue. I thought 3K looked a tad better. It's not there yet, but it's way better than 12k and hopefully is catching on. I think we all just need to hug the hell out of the RGEM. It's been consistently delivering for us. Agree with what PSU said above about the trend with these tends to be later than modeled redevelopment, so you would certainly not prefer to see yourself on the southern edge of the CCB on models. Looks like somewhere between NYC and Philly is likely the spot to be, but let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Oy Gevalt, RGEM!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Less than 24 hrs from the onset of snow and the models still have zero clue where the low will be captured. NAM is off Lewes, DE and the RGEM is off Wallops Island. The difference places the CCB from SE PA to Central NJ on the NAM and Philly to DC on the RGEM. Actually pretty remarkable we this kind of discrepancy. Just shows the intricacy of the 85H and 7H lows during the transfer window. 12z Mon through 00z Tuesday is still a very volatile period. . 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Rgem destroys Baltimore, wiped off the map lol Just how I like it. Very interesting how the Canadian models have been gung ho about this all of a sudden; wish it were easy to tell why they went this direction the past few runs under the hood. Not gonna hug it because it's literally too perfect, but I hope it has the better of the NAM this time around and we can reach those foot totals. But I'll take 6 if that's all we get. REally interested in where the euro puts the CCB; it's been much more optimistic than the NAM but not as much as the RGEM/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 How good is the RGEM at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Mother of Mercy, RGEM!The consistency of this model has been absolutely incredible. I honestly hope it’s right for the sub-forum. It would be a monster for I-95 DC to Philly. Dare I say, looking....2006ish on that run *Ducks for cover* . 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Crazy4Wx said: How good is the RGEM at this range? Those details don’t matter. Just enjoy it. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: I thought 3K looked a tad better. It's not there yet, but it's way better than 12k and hopefully is catching on. I think we all just need to hug the hell out of the RGEM. It's been consistently delivering for us. Agree with what PSU said above about the trend with these tends to be later than modeled redevelopment, so you would certainly not prefer to see yourself on the southern edge of the CCB on models. Looks like somewhere between NYC and Philly is likely the spot to be, but let's see what happens. In my opinion this is the best run of the Icon for our area yet. Oddly the snow maps aren’t all that impressive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 4.00 " Lollie ftw Central Md area 30"+ Um what now!? Eta: where’s that clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Icon looks good. Faster and further south development of the coastal. Tucks into the eastern shore with nice banding into many areas by 00z Tue. how is that model? I think its the first time ive ever heard you mention it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Crazy4Wx said: How good is the RGEM at this range? Meh. I’ll take it over the NAM but wouldn’t trust it until tomorrow. Just like that it was south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 8 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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