nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: 3k improved too. This is what I want to see today....juicier QPF for our backyards tomorrow. Kuchera 12k is like 6-8” lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: He is in Maine. Pretty sure any movements to the NW are later in the storm evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Still snowing here too. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Good thump then a transition in areas further South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Trough looks a little sharper and less positively tilted at 42 on the NAM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Heights in the SE would have what effects on the tilt of the trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Winter Storm Warning posted for Southern/SW Parts of LWX Forecast Area...... Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 902 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 VAZ040-050-051-055>057-502-302215- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T0600Z-210201T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0002.210131T0600Z-210201T0500Z/ Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Southern Fauquier- 902 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch expected. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night. The heaviest snow is most likely just after sunrise Sunday into Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The WAA has started to take on a different look. The other day it was a streak that moved through then part 2 of WAA came in. Now it’s kinda blossoming right over the region. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, pitmd said: At what point would we expect consensus on where the ccb will setup? Usually not until its already happening and we dont need models anymore 7 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Usually not until its already happening and we dont need models anymoreHey man you gonna stick around for what looks to be an active February. And yes...on your post. Think March 2001 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Usually not until its already happening and we dont need models anymore That's when I start posting the RAP and HRRR every hour. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: Last minute southeast ticks NAM joining the party 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The 500 and 850 low looks better on all the NAMs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Looks juicy 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM joining the partyIt's getting there. Maybe when it's within its wheelhouse by tomorrow afternoon 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Usually not until its already happening and we dont need models anymore This must be the most stressful part for meteorologists. People will always complain when they get it wrong. Everyone wants an accurate forecast, but with these kinds of storms, you really can't know until it sets up off the coast. I've always liked these kinds of storms for this reason...the storm will do what it wants. Then we just sit and watch the NWS continue to increase totals throughout the storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Usually not until its already happening and we dont need models anymore Hey man you gonna stick around for what looks to be an active February. And yes...on your post. Think March 2001 lol Only for game time during events. If this storm wasnt lining up over a weekend I prob wouldnt have jumped back in. Expectations on these kinds of storms should be easy. There's plenty of history to draw off of. Jan 2016 was the absolutely ultimate end result and quite anomalous. Which was incredible but that's not happening again with this one. This one is more typical w/climo. You and me are fighting for a total respectable enough that we can light the board up with goofy nonsense. Otherwise we go dark and log off. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: The 500 and 850 low looks better on all the NAMs. It's adjusting to new data and I don't think those shifts are truly over either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 sterling snowfall map as of earlier this AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I’d love to lock in the 3k Nam thermals. Thump of snow, over to freezing drizzle, sleet, then back to snow. Everyone on and west of 95 stays at freezing or below. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: NAM joining the party Too much dry slot. We ain't even sniffing the deform band on the NAMs Many hours of light rain/drizzle and then some snizzle and a few snow showers once the upper levels cool. Maybe an inch or so on the back end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Too much dry slot. We ain't even sniffing the deform band on the NAMs Many hours of light rain/drizzle and then some snizzle and a few snow showers once the upper levels cool. Maybe an inch or so on the back end. That's Miller B climo for this region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Too much dry slot. We ain't even sniffing the deform band on the NAMs Many hours of light rain/drizzle and then some snizzle and a few snow showers once the upper levels cool. Maybe an inch or so on the back end. Yeah that's pretty lame. But its a step in the right direction. Edit: it's probably not gonna go our way in the end. It's easier to hope for CCB further east but what good is that anyways when it's all washed away by 12 hours of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: That's Miller B climo for this region. Yeah I know, but eastern areas can sometimes cash in on the sw edge of a developing coastal. I wont mention Boxing day 2010. oops. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 What's up with the off runs of the euro being better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 After all the potential this has shown all week, anything less than 8-10” is a disappointment for many. Let’s see how the GFS comes in here soon. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: After all the potential this has shown all week, anything less than 8-10” is a disappointment for many. Let’s see how the GFS comes in here soon. Practically EVERY SINGLE STORM is a disappointment to many. Nobody knows our yards like we do. Gotta combine modelism with IMBY'ism and adjust accordingly. PSU was only freaking out this week because storms like this often crush his yard and models werent showing that. They were showing "unusual yard jacks" and it was very troubling to him 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, LeesburgWx said: After all the potential this has shown all week, anything less than 8-10” is a disappointment for many. Let’s see how the GFS comes in here soon. I'll be happy with 4 inches, which is a reasonable expectation given climo and the 6z suite. I think it's going to be hard to avoid the CCB being between Philly and NYC or a dryslot/changeover for part of the storm. But who knows. That's the fun of this hobby, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 hours ago, CAPE said: I never thought there was enough confluence with this one. The NA vortex is on the move as this system slowly evolves, so we lose the 'suppressive' element and the mechanism to keep the cold feed from the NE as the transfer is unfolding. I knew early on that there would be some rain here, and why I never bought the somewhat suppressed/colder Euro runs. I don’t think the confluence is the problem. That has to be moving out as the storm arrives or it can’t amplify on the coast and we get a weaker sinking wave and no coastal at all. The problem is the angle of that last vort of the pinwheel to our north comes down in a bad spot and as the trough to our west feels the influence it stretches out positively tilted. That wasn’t on guidance 5 days ago when we were getting 30” bomb solutions here. Confluence has reversed and backed off the last few runs but is still slightly MORE then those epic runs. What changed us the trough being positive on approach which then makes the transfer and capture process take a little longer. Longer pushes that process further up the coast since the low will be gaining latitude UNTIL its captured then it stalls and pinwheels. But we need that sooner v later. We simply need a quicker phase unfortunately if we’re being honest the model bias is typically the wrong way with this and if anything the phase tends to happen slower. Not always though. And the trough is trending better (less positive) the last few runs of the euro and the NAM made a significant jump south at 12z. So DC is still in the ccb game. But the interaction between the wave in the Midwest and that last NS SW to rotate around the Atlantic vortex is what hurt us imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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