Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,610
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, H2O said:

How often does a piece break off at 700 and expand like that?

It was a clean 700mb low pivot under the area on a transfer. The low intensified over near the coast, allowing for the 700mb jet to enhance overhead. This is a classic maturing phase of a cyclone prior to full occlusion. This is also one of the reasons why the surface low sits off OCMD and just doesn't move. 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

 

This is the Canadian, correct? Not sure if this is the CMC or RGEM but it looks pretty favorable with the costal, banding essentially pivots over the DMV area and points eastward. 

Yeah hours 0-48 are the RGEM on that site and then past it, is the GGEM I think.  That is a really nice panel.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, paxpatriot said:

Maybe I'm just naïve, but it seems concerning that we have such big differences with the major models on that feature over New England basically 48 hours from its impact on this storm. Seems like pretty big disparity for a feature so close.

Yes, for sure everyone is concerned.  That’s the way we roll in the mid-Atl. Mods basically had to close the last thread because of it.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The GFS is a bit on an island with the 00z to 12z Monday period.  Most of the models have a pause or lighter precip.  The GFS has significant (0.5"-1.0") precip during that timeframe.  The struggle is of course that this is the most likely period to have thermal troubles.

 

I'm curious looking at the run, but it almost looks like some kind of inverted trough feature on the GFS right across central MD. This actually isn't the first model to show this feature either. I wonder if there could be something sneaky like this in the cards that won't be solved fully until closer in? 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah hours 0-48 are the RGEM on that site and then past it, is the GGEM I think.  That is a really nice panel.

Hopefully the good maps come out because it went back to the idea of a 50 hour storm. Good thump, some mix in the middle, and than the CCB just keeps reforming over DCA/MD. Pummeled. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

It looks like the GFS finally caved to the Euro but still has a mixing problem this combined with the latest RGEM and Icon models really means that this storm is starting to makes sense and take shape.

we heard you the first time ;) 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think this will be a storm where in the end it will come down to the costal low and where the banding features set up. Unfortunately we won't know this until Sunday when the storm is already occurring so for now looking at snowfall maps is not that helpful. Just take the RGEM it sets up the band right over Fairfax and DC and dumps over a foot! The 00z run had it miss us and we got a still respectable 5-10 inches of snow. We just won't know for a while what happens. What I am saying is don't trust the banding this far out wait till Saturday or Sunday. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Para GFS (v16) is drier and colder than the OP.  0.75-1" QPF total.  Kucera 6" near DC, closer to a foot by the PA border.

I was looking at the UL evolution and I really don't understand why it did what it did. It wasn't THAT far off from the GFS, but it was way off with the CCB comparatively. GFS has a slightly better 7H presentation, but it wasn't super different. Not sure. Wasn't a terrible run, but I think it could've looked a little better at the surface. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...