frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Interesting observation by Jack, the trend further NW may continue today . For us in the low lands and further South that would be bad news. I can imagine that if the front thump does not deliver this may end up being yet another disappointing event. We still have a ways to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM southeast and a bit faster compared to 6z at 19 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12k nam looks thumpier for tomorrow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Pete knows his stuff. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Pete knows his stuff. Pete works for WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12k nam looks thumpier for tomorrow. I’d say. 0.5” runs through DC by 4p tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: Pete works for WPC Yup. Went to Millersville with him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I’d say. 0.5” runs through DC by 4p tomorrow. 3k improved too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: 3k improved too. This is what I want to see today....juicier QPF for our backyards tomorrow. Kuchera 12k is like 6-8” lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: He is in Maine. Pretty sure any movements to the NW are later in the storm evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Still snowing here too. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Good thump then a transition in areas further South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Trough looks a little sharper and less positively tilted at 42 on the NAM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Heights in the SE would have what effects on the tilt of the trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Winter Storm Warning posted for Southern/SW Parts of LWX Forecast Area...... Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 902 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 VAZ040-050-051-055>057-502-302215- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T0600Z-210201T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0002.210131T0600Z-210201T0500Z/ Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Southern Fauquier- 902 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch expected. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night. The heaviest snow is most likely just after sunrise Sunday into Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The WAA has started to take on a different look. The other day it was a streak that moved through then part 2 of WAA came in. Now it’s kinda blossoming right over the region. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, pitmd said: At what point would we expect consensus on where the ccb will setup? Usually not until its already happening and we dont need models anymore 7 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Usually not until its already happening and we dont need models anymoreHey man you gonna stick around for what looks to be an active February. And yes...on your post. Think March 2001 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: Last minute southeast ticks NAM joining the party 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The 500 and 850 low looks better on all the NAMs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Looks juicy 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM joining the partyIt's getting there. Maybe when it's within its wheelhouse by tomorrow afternoon 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Usually not until its already happening and we dont need models anymore This must be the most stressful part for meteorologists. People will always complain when they get it wrong. Everyone wants an accurate forecast, but with these kinds of storms, you really can't know until it sets up off the coast. I've always liked these kinds of storms for this reason...the storm will do what it wants. Then we just sit and watch the NWS continue to increase totals throughout the storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Usually not until its already happening and we dont need models anymore Hey man you gonna stick around for what looks to be an active February. And yes...on your post. Think March 2001 lol Only for game time during events. If this storm wasnt lining up over a weekend I prob wouldnt have jumped back in. Expectations on these kinds of storms should be easy. There's plenty of history to draw off of. Jan 2016 was the absolutely ultimate end result and quite anomalous. Which was incredible but that's not happening again with this one. This one is more typical w/climo. You and me are fighting for a total respectable enough that we can light the board up with goofy nonsense. Otherwise we go dark and log off. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: The 500 and 850 low looks better on all the NAMs. It's adjusting to new data and I don't think those shifts are truly over either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 sterling snowfall map as of earlier this AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I’d love to lock in the 3k Nam thermals. Thump of snow, over to freezing drizzle, sleet, then back to snow. Everyone on and west of 95 stays at freezing or below. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: NAM joining the party Too much dry slot. We ain't even sniffing the deform band on the NAMs Many hours of light rain/drizzle and then some snizzle and a few snow showers once the upper levels cool. Maybe an inch or so on the back end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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