JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Wonderdog said: Very. I think the EURO improved by a smidge comparing the last two runs (today's 0z with yesterday's 12z). JUST one more smidge will solidify a double digit snowfall for mby. Maybe. Last minute southeast ticks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Very interesting the EPS has emphatically liked NoVA and the classic snowy N/W spots in MD for days but the Ops haven’t ever really put a bullseye there. Ops more into south central PA back toward NYC lately. Don’t know what that means, but it’s been a pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 37 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Honestly never lol. Probably the model runs Monday 6z. I’ve storm chased enough storms to know there is never consensus until the storm is on top of us Very true. Arguments were made for suppression and others for going North. For my hood not liking the trends. But I realize it is a very complex situation. Mount Holly gives a range from 4 inches to 12 in the WS Watch overview. I always felt the best snows would go North, simply due to storm evolution, not just climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Guys we got greedy, lets just be happy that all of the models agree we get 3-6 inches of snow. Enough to look nice and cover the grass. Also this is for Sunday one of the rare times when the ground is frozen so it will stick. This happens almost every time with a Miller B but there is time for it to shift back to us it is still two-three days out. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Guys we got greedy, lets just be happy that all of the models agree we get 3-6 inches of snow. Enough to look nice and cover the grass. Also this is for Sunday one of the rare times when the ground is frozen so it will stick. This happens almost every time with a Miller B but there is time for it to shift back to us it is still two-three days out. Agree people see a few maps at 15 and 20 and then get disappointed with 4-8. In this winter, 4-8 is epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 23 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Acceptable Lock it up, I approve this msg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Agree people see a few maps at 15 and 20 and then get disappointed with 4-8. In this winter, 4-8 is epic 4 to 8 would be the entire Janurary climo in one storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, blizzardmeiser said: Agree people see a few maps at 15 and 20 and then get disappointed with 4-8. In this winter, 4-8 is epic I know, my bar for this storm was 5 inches of snow and we got to look at all of the model runs. The Euro gives the whole area 8-12 inches of snow the NAM gives it 6 it still looks like a major snowstorm for us and in DC major is more than 4 inches of snow. Also we might have an ice storm so that's something. I also don't understand why this whole thread is in a bit of a panic we did the same thing yesterday and then it switched right back. It is two to three days out we are fine, it might even have us in the bullseye by Sunday. The models are going to be jumpy this far out, not to mention the snow is setting up in heavy bands which will keep jumping around until the day of. Even then even if the whole second part misses we still get 2-5 inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Very interesting the EPS has emphatically liked NoVA and the classic snowy N/W spots in MD for days but the Ops haven’t ever really put a bullseye there. Ops more into south central PA back toward NYC lately. Don’t know what that means, but it’s been a pattern. I've seen enough storms here to know that unless there's a glaring reason to say otherwise, I'm putting my money somewhere along a line fron Sterling to Cockeysville. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: I know, my bar for this storm was 5 inches of snow and we got to look at all of the model runs. The Euro gives the whole area 8-12 inches of snow the NAM gives it 6 it still looks like a major snowstorm for us and in DC major is more than 4 inches of snow. Also we might have an ice storm so that's something. I also don't understand why this whole thread is in a bit of a panic we did the same thing yesterday and then it switched right back. It is two to three days out we are fine, it might even have us in the bullseye by Sunday. The models are going to be jumpy this far out, not to mention the snow is setting up in heavy bands which will keep jumping around until the day of. Even then even if the whole second part misses we still get 2-5 inches of snow. LOL, the storm is less than 24 hours out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 22 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Acceptable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Guys we got greedy, lets just be happy that all of the models agree we get 3-6 inches of snow. Enough to look nice and cover the grass. Also this is for Sunday one of the rare times when the ground is frozen so it will stick. This happens almost every time with a Miller B but there is time for it to shift back to us it is still two-three days out. There are still models giving many in our forum 8"+. The Euro just gave literally everyone forum wide 6-20." "Settling" for 3-6" is really on the low end of all guidance. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL, the storm is less than 24 hours out. The 1st part is the Monday is around 48 hours out and the possible banding Monday night is 60 hours out plenty of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: The 1st part is the Monday is around 48 hours out and the possible banding Monday night is 60 hours out plenty of time. First flakes for most of the region will begin by noon tomorrow. Early in the morning for those way down in VA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I'm seeing close to a foot for DC proper on the 6z Euro but a number of disappointed posters. Who got shafted this morning? South of the city? Honestly if we get 6" (DC) I'll be thrilled. It's not like there's much difference in fun or beauty between 6 and 12", and the latter is twice the shoveling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, T. August said: First flakes for most of the region will begin by noon tomorrow. Early in the morning for those way down in VA. I miss typed sorry. I meant to sat that the 1st part of the storm would be within 24 hours but the second part that everyone is a bit annoyed at would happen in 40-60 hours from now which means the models can mess with us even more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Models have definately hurt MBY in Northern neck of Virginia the past 12 hours.....Was looking at a solid 6-8 event now getting fringed and will be lucky to get 2-3 but guess I should have expected that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hrrr long range is a a solid 5-6 inches for dc metro before any mixing. One part of the storm we need to produce is the thump so that’s reassuring even though it’s the hrrr at range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Negnao said: Hrrr long range is a a solid 5-6 inches for dc metro before any mixing. One part of the storm we need to produce is the thump so that’s reassuring even though it’s the hrrr at range. The other shorter term models tend to have a pretty good thump in the beginning on Sunday so that part of the storm looks good anywhere from 3-6 looks likely and that on it's own is great for our area and anything on top of that is a bonus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Through 7 AM Monday in my backyard although temporal distribution may be relevant for many (note times across the top are EST) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Interesting observation by Jack, the trend further NW may continue today . For us in the low lands and further South that would be bad news. I can imagine that if the front thump does not deliver this may end up being yet another disappointing event. We still have a ways to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM southeast and a bit faster compared to 6z at 19 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12k nam looks thumpier for tomorrow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Pete knows his stuff. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Pete knows his stuff. Pete works for WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12k nam looks thumpier for tomorrow. I’d say. 0.5” runs through DC by 4p tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: Pete works for WPC Yup. Went to Millersville with him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I’d say. 0.5” runs through DC by 4p tomorrow. 3k improved too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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