yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 LWX morning disco on part 1 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 350 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build overhead today. Low pressure will approach from the west Sunday and transfer off the coast on Monday. High pressure will build back in by the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will build overhead today. Dry conditions expected with plenty of sunshine through much of the day. High clouds will begin to increase ahead of the next low pressure system that will arrive from the west later today into tonight. Highs will top out in the 30s to near 40. The low pressure system will move along the Ohio Valley tonight. A surge of warm advection aloft in advance of the surface low/closed upper low tracking into the Ohio Valley will start to overspread the area from southwest to northeast over the course of the nighttime hours. Snow should move into the central Shenandoah Valley and western parts of the Virginia Piedmont around midnight, before onward into D.C. around or just after daybreak on Sunday. A steady period of snow is expected across the entire area Sunday in association with this push of warm advection. A general 4-6 inches of snow is expected across the area with this round of snow. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for most of the forecast area. Once we have observed the latest guidance and tweaked our forecast to account for snow accumulations and any ice accumulation, we will decide which zones would be the most impacted by snow and/or ice, then we will issue advisories or warnings during this upcoming dayshift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 DCA just missed out on the epic CCB on 06z RGEM... just off to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3.4 liquid for philly that has to be some mix setting up right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, yoda said: dang saw this as soon as i posted about philly and having so much liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 33 minutes ago, yoda said: That's a paddle smacking NE MD, SE PA, a smidge of DE, and a bit of NJ. Or a spatula, if you'd prefer. Pancakes for breakfast! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I remember worrying about suppression. Not the problem. Slipping away to the north is the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Have to keep an eye on the location and timing of the area of heavier precip that develops to the west of the 850 low as it tracks off the coast. This is close over here with p-type as the cold is just wrapping back in at this time. Verbatim probably heavy rain/sleet flipping to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Miller Bs screw issues showing their hand. Dry slot, slow transfer, slow wraparound. NE Maryland pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Truth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, midatlanticweather said: Miller Bs screw issues showing their hand. Dry slot, slow transfer, slow wraparound. NE Maryland pummeled. Don't forget the E wind effing up the lower levels. Mild rainy day here much of Monday. Oh yeah the Euro caved lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Truth I never thought there was enough confluence with this one. The NA vortex is on the move as this system slowly evolves, so we lose the 'suppressive' element and the mechanism to keep the cold feed from the NE as the transfer is unfolding. I knew early on that there would be some rain here, and why I never bought the somewhat suppressed/colder Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: I never thought there was enough confluence with this one. The NA vortex is on the move as this system slowly evolves, so we lose the 'suppressive' element and the mechanism to keep the cold feed from the NE as the transfer is unfolding. I knew early on that there would be some rain here, and why I never bought the somewhat suppressed/colder Euro runs. My uneducated eyes suggested that the other day when psu had his meltdown over the euro suppression. Who knows.. not a warm and fuzzy morning in here that's for sure. Guess we are in scramble/save mode now. Good luck all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: My uneducated eyes suggested that the other day when psu had his meltdown over the euro suppression. Who knows.. not a warm and fuzzy morning in here that's for sure. Guess we are in scramble/save mode now. Good luck all! As usual I sleep through the overnight stuff and evaluate in the AM. And I don't go back and read the thread lol. This is pretty much going as I expected for my yard. I have always hoped the front end would maximize, and had low expectations beyond that. Front end still looks ok, although I think the forecast here of 4-8 through Sunday night might be a bit optimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 FWIW from AKQ for part 1... they went WSWarning for the counties bordering the LWX CWA URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 434 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 VAZ048-061-062-064-069-509>511-302200- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.210131T0300Z-210201T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.210131T0300Z-210201T0600Z/ Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Powhatan-Western Louisa- Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham, Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Corbin, Burruss Corner, Cedar Fork, Dawn, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, Louisa, Mineral, and Ashland 434 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central and north central Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: As usual I sleep through the overnight stuff and evaluate in the AM. And I don't go back and read the thread lol. This is pretty much going as I expected for my yard. I have always hoped the front end would maximize, and had low expectations beyond that. Front end still looks ok, although I think my forecast of 4-8 through Sunday night might be a bit optimistic. My two spots to stay are both in no man's land lol....I may be in the dryslot from start to finish ...that's one way to fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hey a novice question here. But don’t we do much better when the weaker Low develops in the gulf coast region and feeds/redevelops to the primary Low off the NC/VA border? it seems to me that, like our current situation, when the weaker Low comes from the west (farther North if you will) and we have to wait on that L to feed the coastal, we tend to bust more often as it becomes too far North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: My two spots to stay are both in no man's land lol....I may be in the dryslot from start to finish ...that's one way to fail I would choose Sykesville. Better shot to get in on the CCB as it looks now. That part of the storm is still iffy on the guidance, and subject to some changes imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: I would choose Sykesville. Better shot to get in on the CCB as it looks now. That part of the storm is still iffy on the guidance, and subject to some changes imo. Came up last night...hope your area gets some ground coverage... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Hurricanegiants said: Hey a novice question here. But don’t we do much better when the weaker Low develops in the gulf coast region and feeds/redevelops to the primary Low off the NC/VA border? it seems to me that, like our current situation, when the weaker Low comes from the west (farther North if you will) and we have to wait on that L to feed the coastal, we tend to bust more often as it becomes too far North. Not that I am an expert, but yes. Miller Bs that come from the west often reform too far north for our area. Lows out of the Gulf have all the moisture and strength they need without the new low becoming the driver to deliver the precipitation. The thing that can overcome the problem is blocking that can push these normally north of us storms underneath us, far enough to bring a healthy snow. Additionally, the storms get stuck from being able to go north so they stall and pour snow over the region. We see the typical issues with our latitude showing up now because the block to the north was not quite at the strength once modeled. The low is further north before it does the stall. Storm collapse appears more likely other than the front end thump or if you are northern Maryland and North and east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, yoda said: 00z NAM still very juicy and nice with WAA... but big swing and miss after with CCB -- too far north for just about everyone 4-8" and that's it I like that look. Solid snowy day Sunday, comes in hot and heavy. I’m gonna really enjoy daytime snow that sticks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 My two spots to stay are both in no man's land lol....I may be in the dryslot from start to finish ...that's one way to fail Geez just be happy you are seeing some snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: It’s because the h7 low keeps trending N imo. It’s also the trough taking its sweet time to tilt negative. If it ticks earlier or quicker the best lift will reorganize a little father SW and we’re in business on the tail end of the CCB. Unfortunately (like many times) just north of Baltimore and and Phillies area seem to be the sweet spot for deepening and cyclogenisis. I was also a little disappointed over past 2 days on the WAA thump. Those can really deliver here and can hold on sometimes longer than anticipated. That’s not as robust as it was 48 hours ago. For me though.. I’m all good. Sitting on plane at the moment in bound to Jackson Hole. It always snows back in dc when I leave during the winter. 09/10 was a direct result of my 6 week absence. So you’re welcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6z euro gets the ccb a little further south. Maybe we can stop the bleeding a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 CcB looks good into the cities on the 06z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6z euro is 6+ from EZf north. 10+ dc north 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6z euro with a decent uptick in qpf. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Look at that stinger from md up through poconos etc. that ccb needs to chill now though worried about further nw ticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6z euro with a decent uptick in qpf. Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesssssss.....suppression baby! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6z euro gets the ccb a little further south. Maybe we can stop the bleeding a little.Did anything tick south besides the ccb line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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