caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 If I was told 2 weeks ago that I could lock up a 4-6" storm this weekend even if Philly-NYC got a foot+++, I would have done it and I'd still do it right now. Just saying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 #fulltuck im baffled though. Placement, h5/h7... they all look great. God I hope that dry slot is wrong. Without that, it’s a region wide burial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 If I was told 2 weeks ago that I could lock up a 4-6" storm this weekend even if Philly-NYC got a foot+++, I would have done it and I'd still do it right now. Just saying.No man. I really see why Bob Chill gave up this hobby. Hobbies are suppose to be fun and rewarding. Imagine if you tried to play the guitar for 15 years and only knew the D Chord 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Central VA seemed to lose 1-2” on the thump on this 00z EURO run. Real bummer. Yea that is killing places DC south. Even with some marginal gains from part 2 it’s a net loss. Unfortunately the primary is shearing out and weakening so the WAA is dying as it gets to us. Suppression ugh lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea that is killing places DC south. Even with some marginal gains from part 2 it’s a net loss. Unfortunately the primary is shearing out and weakening so the WAA is dying as it gets to us. Suppression ugh lol Only way we make that up is if the low transfers / deepens early and south, and tucks with a solid h5 passage. That’s a lot of risk to bank on though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 At least you could give the D (chord) whenever needed @Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Yea that is killing places DC south. Even with some marginal gains from part 2 it’s a net loss. Unfortunately the primary is shearing out and weakening so the WAA is dying as it gets to us. Suppression ugh lol That was suppose to be the easy part of the storm. Wouldn't it be something if we got a dusting to 2 inches because both sides dried up. This has a March 01 feel to it. Red flag was seeing all these 48 hour storm with 8 inches on the map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 What happened to the great 18z eps run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Ji said: What happened to the great 18z eps run To be fair the 0z euro looked great in every way except the QPF. If you just looked at the h5 and mslp you would think N VA northeast got 12”+ easy. Instead we sat under a dryslot forever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 To be fair the 0z euro looked great in every way except the QPF. If you just looked at the h5 and mslp you would think N VA northeast got 12”+ easy. Instead we sat under a dryslot forever. I don't get it. I saw this first...and then 500 and didn't bother looking at the precip panels . Just shocking 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ji said: No man. I really see why Bob Chill gave up this hobby. Hobbies are suppose to be fun and rewarding. Imagine if you tried to play the guitar for 15 years and only knew the D Chord For me, the hobby is learning. Not figuring out how to will our climo to be like Boston's. That's eh, a losing battle. Nothing you or I or Bob or PSU can do will change anything. That's why I don't get caught up in the "rooting for this feature" or that. It doesn't matter. It never will. I hope I get snow to play in with my kids. From the looks of things, I will. I want to learn more about how we get it and how we don't. That's why I'm here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, jayyy said: #fulltuck im baffled though. Placement, h5/h7... they all look great. God I hope that dry slot is wrong. Without that, it’s a region wide burial. Seems you and @psuhoffman are on agreement on that... which is good lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: To be fair the 0z euro looked great in every way except the QPF. If you just looked at the h5 and mslp you would think N VA northeast got 12”+ easy. Instead we sat under a dryslot forever. Guess we'll see what happens on the 00z EPS... though I think we are just about too close in now for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea that is killing places DC south. Even with some marginal gains from part 2 it’s a net loss. Unfortunately the primary is shearing out and weakening so the WAA is dying as it gets to us. Suppression ugh lol And yet that helped the CCB! Look What an inverse relationship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Seems you and @psuhoffman are on agreement on that... which is good lol Perhaps euro is having trouble with all of the lifting / frontogenesis going on to the NE and precip to the W that it’s having convective issues in between. If someone told me that if I said yes, the surface, 500 and h5 setup would pan out exactly as tonight’s 0z euro depicts, I’d say yes in a heartbeat and chance the fact that the dry slot is placed too far west / too prominent. That upper air setup = MECS 9/10 times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Guess we'll see what happens on the 00z EPS... though I think we are just about too close in now for it Not necessarily. A better qpf mean could indicate the op dryslot was a bit overdone. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Not necessarily. A better qpf mean could indicate the op dryslot was a bit overdone. Well if we go that route, FWIW, the GEPS mean was 0.3 to 0.5" wetter on 00z than 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Not necessarily. A better qpf mean could indicate the op dryslot was a bit overdone. Also think we’re still plenty far away to still be able to use EPS / Euro and the Canadian to analyze the part 2 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: I don't get it. I saw this first...and then 500 and didn't bother looking at the precip panels . Just shocking So it’s still a 6-12” snowstorm across our area so it’s not like it’s a full fail. But yes that’s underperforming that look right there. Even more so if you look at the whole progression, primary jumps from the KY OH border to eastern NC then tucks up east of OC. Perfection. But it’s possible the op simply overdid the dryslot on that run. Maybe it was a hiccup. Precip isn’t the most accurate at this range. If we actually get that surface and h5 progression I’ll bet it’s a better result. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Well if we go that route, FWIW, the GEPS mean was 0.3 to 0.5" wetter on 00z than 18z Yea but the ggem op was very wet so they simply supported that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ji said: I don't get it. I saw this first...and then 500 and didn't bother looking at the precip panels . Just shocking It’s because the h7 low keeps trending N imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The 00z euro has been super nasty to us the past 3 4 nights 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I do recall a comment in the AFD for the last little event we had here saying that LWX was still looking at EPS qpf right up to onset, so they seem to think there's value in Ens even late in the game too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Let’s see what 6z has to say. The ole 6z//.. Notorious for depicting QPF laden bombs and clown maps within 36 hr, just to pull back at 12z. Man. Wish we had a LITTLE more consistency in solutions, but it’s hard when the models are trying to handle part 2 of a storm when part 1 is nowhere near the area and there’s so many moving parts associated with this setup. Miller b’s are tricky. They can’t bite us to the NE... but when they pan out....it’s a thing of perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The origins of this is out there now. How is it, where is it as compared to forecasts for it at this time ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, jayyy said: Let’s see what 6z has to say. The ole 6z//.. Notorious for depicting QPF laden bombs and clown maps within 36 hr, just to pull back at 12z. Man. Wish we had a LITTLE more consistency in solutions, but it’s hard when the models are trying to handle part 2 of a storm when part 1 is nowhere near the area and there’s so many moving parts associated with this setup. Miller b’s are tricky. They can’t bite us to the NE... but when they pan out....it’s a thing of perfection. I feel the same way models say this this this then one model out of no where closer to the event says oh not. then forecast for me says fri will be 52 how can you even forecast that when the models have problems with a storm 48-72 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 21 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: It’s because the h7 low keeps trending N imo. Except the track looks pretty similar the last 2 runs. 0z was deeper and has a more broad h7 circulation vs a tighter closed h7 low 18z. Maybe that made a difference but the track didn’t seem north to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: The origins of this is out there now. How is it, where is it as compared to forecasts for it at this time ? Good luck extrapolating where a deform of a coastal that hasn’t formed yet sets up in 72 hours from current observations. Let me know how that works for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 19 minutes ago, Ji said: The 00z euro has been super nasty to us the past 3 4 nights EPS look really good for you. N VA Jack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 @high risk and @ers-wxman1 can chime in with how much it does/doesn’t mean but the EPS does not support the dryslot on the op. Increased qpf significantly again especially over N VA. Very slight cut back from WAA but significantly increased the CCB from 18z and we thought that was a great run. Totals dropped SLIGHTLY along the southern zones due to the loss of some with the WAA and deform won’t help south of EZF but increased everywhere else. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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