Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The 00z euro has been super nasty to us the past 3 4 nights 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I do recall a comment in the AFD for the last little event we had here saying that LWX was still looking at EPS qpf right up to onset, so they seem to think there's value in Ens even late in the game too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Let’s see what 6z has to say. The ole 6z//.. Notorious for depicting QPF laden bombs and clown maps within 36 hr, just to pull back at 12z. Man. Wish we had a LITTLE more consistency in solutions, but it’s hard when the models are trying to handle part 2 of a storm when part 1 is nowhere near the area and there’s so many moving parts associated with this setup. Miller b’s are tricky. They can’t bite us to the NE... but when they pan out....it’s a thing of perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The origins of this is out there now. How is it, where is it as compared to forecasts for it at this time ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, jayyy said: Let’s see what 6z has to say. The ole 6z//.. Notorious for depicting QPF laden bombs and clown maps within 36 hr, just to pull back at 12z. Man. Wish we had a LITTLE more consistency in solutions, but it’s hard when the models are trying to handle part 2 of a storm when part 1 is nowhere near the area and there’s so many moving parts associated with this setup. Miller b’s are tricky. They can’t bite us to the NE... but when they pan out....it’s a thing of perfection. I feel the same way models say this this this then one model out of no where closer to the event says oh not. then forecast for me says fri will be 52 how can you even forecast that when the models have problems with a storm 48-72 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 21 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: It’s because the h7 low keeps trending N imo. Except the track looks pretty similar the last 2 runs. 0z was deeper and has a more broad h7 circulation vs a tighter closed h7 low 18z. Maybe that made a difference but the track didn’t seem north to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: The origins of this is out there now. How is it, where is it as compared to forecasts for it at this time ? Good luck extrapolating where a deform of a coastal that hasn’t formed yet sets up in 72 hours from current observations. Let me know how that works for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 19 minutes ago, Ji said: The 00z euro has been super nasty to us the past 3 4 nights EPS look really good for you. N VA Jack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 @high risk and @ers-wxman1 can chime in with how much it does/doesn’t mean but the EPS does not support the dryslot on the op. Increased qpf significantly again especially over N VA. Very slight cut back from WAA but significantly increased the CCB from 18z and we thought that was a great run. Totals dropped SLIGHTLY along the southern zones due to the loss of some with the WAA and deform won’t help south of EZF but increased everywhere else. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Good luck extrapolating where a deform of a coastal that hasn’t formed yet sets up in 72 hours from current observations. Let me know how that works for you. It already has worked well. Analogs. That’s why I asked snippy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, WEATHER53 said: It already has worked well. Analogs. That’s why I asked snippy. Analogs only give you a basic framework to work from. Nothing more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: It already has worked well. Analogs. That’s why I asked snippy. Every storm is unique. Analogs give you goalposts but yesterday for instance the top 4 analogs included 2 storms that dropped less then 3” on the DC metro and 2 storms that dropped over 20” so you gonna forecast 2-25”? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: Analogs only give you a basic framework to work from. Nothing more You ninjad me again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS look really good for you. N VA Jack. 9 inches at DCA on the 00z EPS mean lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 @jayyy @psuhoffman There are around 11 or 12 monster hits in the EPS tonight FYI ETA: I consider "monster" to be around 16 inches or more 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: There are around 11 or 12 monster hits in the EPS tonight FYI ETA: I consider "monster" to be around 16 inches or more Show us you will 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I’m so sleepy but I want to see more models runs that make me feel better hahaha 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: Show us you will I will take you to Jabba now... er.. show you the EPS members now 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: I will take you to Jabba now... er.. show you the EPS members now Ohhhh, wow. That’s promising to see. Member 26 anybody? Bueller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Ohhhh, wow. That’s promising to see. Member 26 anybody? Bueller? I added the first group just after you quoted my original post which only had the 2nd fyi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, yoda said: I added the first group just after you quoted my original post which only had the 2nd fyi Man. That was a solid EPS to end the night. Anybody else pumped for 6z? Alright. I need to sleep a little bit. Can’t wait to track some more with y’all in a few hours. T minus 30 hours until snow!!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I added the first group just after you quoted my original post which only had the 2nd fyi I was gonna say! Are my tired eyes playing tricks on me?! lol! PS - panel 14 is a thing of beauty. That’s my birthday day. Lock it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 You know things are going well when (a) you wonder if the 4 inch QPF would be all snow or just mostly snow (b) you wonder why that guy in BC always underpredicts snowfalls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 MDZ001-VAZ025>027-029-036>039-503-504-507-508-WVZ055-501>503-505- 506-301600- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T0300Z-210201T0300Z/ Garrett-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Nelson-Albemarle- Greene-Madison-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hardy- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 MDZ006-008-011-507-508-301600- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T1100Z-210201T1100Z/ Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford- 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Northern Baltimore, Cecil, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore and Northwest Harford Counties. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 DCZ001-MDZ003>005-013-014-016>018-501>506-VAZ028-030-031-040- 050>057-501-502-505-506-WVZ050>053-504-301600- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T0600Z-210201T0600Z/ District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Frederick VA-Warren- Clarke-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Eastern Mineral- 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 06z 3km NAM juiced up compared to its 00z run by a good amount for the WAA part... up to 0.45" to 0.50" QPF by hour 45 when DCA mixes... 3-6" of snow... 4-8 on Kuchera 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 00z NAM still very juicy and nice with WAA... but big swing and miss after with CCB -- too far north for just about everyone 4-8" and that's it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Meanwhile... we hope... 06z NBM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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