yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Looks like a lil better ridging out west at 00z 36 compared to 12z 48 to me... yes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Looks like a lil better ridging out west at 00z 36 compared to 12z 48 to me... yes? Slight but noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 One last point with ccb trends. This is the Cmc ensemble. Totals in central VA went down ENE because the WAA trended weaker. But the CCB trended a lot better. This is just the ccb part from 12z to 0z overall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Central VA seemed to lose 1-2” on the thump on this 00z EURO run. Real bummer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Agrees with the cutback in WAA which I don’t want to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Imagine if this storm was at least a double phased system or at least stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 994mb SLP just east of Ocean City, MD at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Not the best run...too far north, warm, so most of us get dryslotted. It's still quite a bit of snow, but meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I will take that CCB placement in the Euro, low gets tucked in closer to the coast, though... a more obvious dry slot and a bit warmer overall. Probably a period of drizzle/freezing drizzle (depending how cold the surface is) around Monday AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Fairly good agreement (Euro, Canadian, Both GFS, NAM) of a Philly-NYC jackpot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: I will take that CCB placement in the Euro Show us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Might be the most ragged, epic storm in recent history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 anyone up with WB? Kuchera will look decent...6"+ for most, but much of the QPF is so spread out and light/moderate...plus warm....I would be cautious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: I have a feeling we will see high ratios. Its really cold.. it ill be one of those instant accumulation deals.. Hope we can squeeze 6-12 over CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 25 minutes ago, CavalierHoo said: Why such a passive aggressive approach to this guy for the second time tonight? The UKMET is further south and lower in totals than most models. I'm sure you know this. Can't people post their opinions in this thread without a douchy comment? Practically half of the posts in this thread are about IMBY. Seems like the regulars get away with this.....regularly, without any gruff. Lighten up dude. Enjoy the snow. Actually, it's the 3rd time tonight. And he's constantly been posting junk, even before tonight. Learn to read a room before you lecture. But yeah, I'm good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 As Deck Pic pointed out, this is really spread out. I’m putting all my eggs in the WAA which was about 3-5” in DC. Sunday will look pretty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 If I didn't know what the other models were saying, I'd love the Euro, but I hate it so much right now. I lost an inch or so on this run, VA burbs lose 2-3". Baltimore gains though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Definitely stings, but still doable for me. 5 to 10...that's all I need 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Definitely stings, but still doable for me. 5 to 10...that's all I need Yes... I mean as I have said before I would love 12".... but I just want to see that WSWarning issued... 4" is my benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: If I didn't know what the other models were saying, I'd love the Euro, but I hate it so much right now. I lost an inch or so on this run, VA burbs lose 2-3". Baltimore gains though. The storm is too complex for a global model to get the dryslot location right...It's a cautionary tale. I don't think the euro has the details right....NW of the cities will probably do better than the cities, except NE MD... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 We got the full tuck. Better track. Further SW. but it didn’t really work out to a better result. The WAA really got suppressed. That hurt DC south. Most places lost 1-3” there. Then we got stuck in the dry slot too long. And despite a better deform band it didn’t extend as far south into VA despite a further southwest stall of the surface low. That part shocked me. I looked at the slp first and expected a better result then what I saw when I looked at the qpf. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Definitely stings, but still doable for me. 5 to 10...that's all I needman this is a rough hobby 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Definitely stings, but still doable for me. 5 to 10...that's all I need It’d be an epic fail even for DC standards if we don’t get 5” Sunday - Monday. I’m more interested in the WAA. CCB will be so tricky to nail down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Yes... I mean as I have said before I would love 12".... but I just want to see that WSWarning issued... 4" is my benchmark Wait isn't warning level 5"? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro looks the other models with the track but its bone dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 After more examination the 0z was an improvement at every level. More amplified and better h5 pass. H7 looked slightly better. Better track. That dry slot was just a killer but that could be wrong. It certainly wasn’t a NAM type fail with the CCB. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Euro looks the other models with the track but its bone dry Yea exactly, thanks for saying it in way less words. Lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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