stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Definitely stings, but still doable for me. 5 to 10...that's all I need 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Definitely stings, but still doable for me. 5 to 10...that's all I need Yes... I mean as I have said before I would love 12".... but I just want to see that WSWarning issued... 4" is my benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 We got the full tuck. Better track. Further SW. but it didn’t really work out to a better result. The WAA really got suppressed. That hurt DC south. Most places lost 1-3” there. Then we got stuck in the dry slot too long. And despite a better deform band it didn’t extend as far south into VA despite a further southwest stall of the surface low. That part shocked me. I looked at the slp first and expected a better result then what I saw when I looked at the qpf. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Definitely stings, but still doable for me. 5 to 10...that's all I needman this is a rough hobby 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Definitely stings, but still doable for me. 5 to 10...that's all I need It’d be an epic fail even for DC standards if we don’t get 5” Sunday - Monday. I’m more interested in the WAA. CCB will be so tricky to nail down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Yes... I mean as I have said before I would love 12".... but I just want to see that WSWarning issued... 4" is my benchmark Wait isn't warning level 5"? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro looks the other models with the track but its bone dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 After more examination the 0z was an improvement at every level. More amplified and better h5 pass. H7 looked slightly better. Better track. That dry slot was just a killer but that could be wrong. It certainly wasn’t a NAM type fail with the CCB. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Euro looks the other models with the track but its bone dry Yea exactly, thanks for saying it in way less words. Lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 If I was told 2 weeks ago that I could lock up a 4-6" storm this weekend even if Philly-NYC got a foot+++, I would have done it and I'd still do it right now. Just saying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 #fulltuck im baffled though. Placement, h5/h7... they all look great. God I hope that dry slot is wrong. Without that, it’s a region wide burial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 If I was told 2 weeks ago that I could lock up a 4-6" storm this weekend even if Philly-NYC got a foot+++, I would have done it and I'd still do it right now. Just saying.No man. I really see why Bob Chill gave up this hobby. Hobbies are suppose to be fun and rewarding. Imagine if you tried to play the guitar for 15 years and only knew the D Chord 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Central VA seemed to lose 1-2” on the thump on this 00z EURO run. Real bummer. Yea that is killing places DC south. Even with some marginal gains from part 2 it’s a net loss. Unfortunately the primary is shearing out and weakening so the WAA is dying as it gets to us. Suppression ugh lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea that is killing places DC south. Even with some marginal gains from part 2 it’s a net loss. Unfortunately the primary is shearing out and weakening so the WAA is dying as it gets to us. Suppression ugh lol Only way we make that up is if the low transfers / deepens early and south, and tucks with a solid h5 passage. That’s a lot of risk to bank on though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 At least you could give the D (chord) whenever needed @Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Yea that is killing places DC south. Even with some marginal gains from part 2 it’s a net loss. Unfortunately the primary is shearing out and weakening so the WAA is dying as it gets to us. Suppression ugh lol That was suppose to be the easy part of the storm. Wouldn't it be something if we got a dusting to 2 inches because both sides dried up. This has a March 01 feel to it. Red flag was seeing all these 48 hour storm with 8 inches on the map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 What happened to the great 18z eps run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Ji said: What happened to the great 18z eps run To be fair the 0z euro looked great in every way except the QPF. If you just looked at the h5 and mslp you would think N VA northeast got 12”+ easy. Instead we sat under a dryslot forever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 To be fair the 0z euro looked great in every way except the QPF. If you just looked at the h5 and mslp you would think N VA northeast got 12”+ easy. Instead we sat under a dryslot forever. I don't get it. I saw this first...and then 500 and didn't bother looking at the precip panels . Just shocking 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ji said: No man. I really see why Bob Chill gave up this hobby. Hobbies are suppose to be fun and rewarding. Imagine if you tried to play the guitar for 15 years and only knew the D Chord For me, the hobby is learning. Not figuring out how to will our climo to be like Boston's. That's eh, a losing battle. Nothing you or I or Bob or PSU can do will change anything. That's why I don't get caught up in the "rooting for this feature" or that. It doesn't matter. It never will. I hope I get snow to play in with my kids. From the looks of things, I will. I want to learn more about how we get it and how we don't. That's why I'm here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, jayyy said: #fulltuck im baffled though. Placement, h5/h7... they all look great. God I hope that dry slot is wrong. Without that, it’s a region wide burial. Seems you and @psuhoffman are on agreement on that... which is good lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: To be fair the 0z euro looked great in every way except the QPF. If you just looked at the h5 and mslp you would think N VA northeast got 12”+ easy. Instead we sat under a dryslot forever. Guess we'll see what happens on the 00z EPS... though I think we are just about too close in now for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea that is killing places DC south. Even with some marginal gains from part 2 it’s a net loss. Unfortunately the primary is shearing out and weakening so the WAA is dying as it gets to us. Suppression ugh lol And yet that helped the CCB! Look What an inverse relationship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Seems you and @psuhoffman are on agreement on that... which is good lol Perhaps euro is having trouble with all of the lifting / frontogenesis going on to the NE and precip to the W that it’s having convective issues in between. If someone told me that if I said yes, the surface, 500 and h5 setup would pan out exactly as tonight’s 0z euro depicts, I’d say yes in a heartbeat and chance the fact that the dry slot is placed too far west / too prominent. That upper air setup = MECS 9/10 times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Guess we'll see what happens on the 00z EPS... though I think we are just about too close in now for it Not necessarily. A better qpf mean could indicate the op dryslot was a bit overdone. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Not necessarily. A better qpf mean could indicate the op dryslot was a bit overdone. Well if we go that route, FWIW, the GEPS mean was 0.3 to 0.5" wetter on 00z than 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Not necessarily. A better qpf mean could indicate the op dryslot was a bit overdone. Also think we’re still plenty far away to still be able to use EPS / Euro and the Canadian to analyze the part 2 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: I don't get it. I saw this first...and then 500 and didn't bother looking at the precip panels . Just shocking So it’s still a 6-12” snowstorm across our area so it’s not like it’s a full fail. But yes that’s underperforming that look right there. Even more so if you look at the whole progression, primary jumps from the KY OH border to eastern NC then tucks up east of OC. Perfection. But it’s possible the op simply overdid the dryslot on that run. Maybe it was a hiccup. Precip isn’t the most accurate at this range. If we actually get that surface and h5 progression I’ll bet it’s a better result. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Well if we go that route, FWIW, the GEPS mean was 0.3 to 0.5" wetter on 00z than 18z Yea but the ggem op was very wet so they simply supported that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ji said: I don't get it. I saw this first...and then 500 and didn't bother looking at the precip panels . Just shocking It’s because the h7 low keeps trending N imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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