WEATHER53 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Okay, I understand that...but what I'm saying is, does a weaker WAA mean an earlier coastal? Or are they not connected like that? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, LP08 said: Just for posterity but goodness. Still some light snow falling too hah. Please god be real 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Absolutely worlds apart are the uk and the Gem. Hopefully consensus tomorrow but I’m not even sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Some biblical maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, WEATHER53 said: Some biblical maps! yeah.. the models are starting to show mesoscale potential. Banding is going to set up somewhere.. It appears to be favoring the north and east portions of the sub.. hopefully it is generous and we all some serious conveyor belt stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Where do we sign? Great run for dc. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 39 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So...are you saying that we can benefit from even more relaxation of that vort over NE? So in a way it's like the opposite...suppression issues show up as "north" and not south? In other words, a further relaxation of that vort would produce a more of a "south"--in a good way--solution? *head spinning* It sounds counter intuitive but it’s a complicated setup. The suppressive flow is relaxing. As it does eventually the coastal storm will amplify, phase and get captured. Once that it will stall and tuck and where that happens to the NW is where the heavy snow will develop. Illustrated below by the ggem. the capture/tuck was perfect there for DC northeast. The heavy snow is banding in the deformation axis where there is the convergence of winds and sheer at different levels. Look at how the winds ahead of the h5 h85 and surface levels all converge on that zone. Additionally you have moisture transport into that zone from the east. So you add moisture, instability and lift from convergence and that death band is what you get! But one issue on some guidance is the h5 opens up as it presses up against the shear from that suppression and because of that the transfer process is delayed and so the low doesn’t phase and capture until further northeast up the coast? I give you the NAM same scenario but the low is further northeast at the same time AND it never really got its act together and synced at at all levels like the rgem/ggem did. The result is the ensuing snow bands set up north. But yes suppression had a part in that. It’s delicate though. The suppression is easing. If it eased too soon the primary could hang on too long. If it suppressed initially we lose some of the WAA wave then the coastal front could be further southeast and the secondary will develop further ots. It’s a tricky balance. Miller Bs are a pain in the a$$ compared to muller As to pin down. If this was a juiced up gulf low we probably would have a better idea how it’s going to go by now. But guidance has a notoriously difficult time with transfers and phases. I’ll never forget how EVERY model was giving be a 6-10” snow from the CCB in early March 2018 only about 12 hours out and then the whole thing shifted northeast and I didn’t get a flake from the coastal. On the other hand a similar storm in Feb 1996 was supposed to hit NJ and crushed DC with no warning. I never count on a ccb from a miller b secondary until it’s snowing from it. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: UKMET a big outlier at this point... likely can be thrown out. In addition to the consensus you said that was against the CMC (which I guess is good now?), now the UKMET is bad? Tell us why it can likely be thrown out, in your expert opinion. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Obviously we prefer this, although CMC was about the same for us? But up in the highlands, it's on another planet vs CMC. If anything, this will be plenty interesting. Hopefully things firm up tomorrow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Anyone believing the CMC is right needs to go to bed now. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Anyone believing the CMC is right needs to go to bed now. what that their will be CCB setting up somewhere across the northeast portion of our sub? How is that so hard to believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, mattskiva said: Ukmet, CMC, and wxrisk clown maps should be banned in storm mode as fake news. Let's focus on the adult models... The large discrepancy between all the models is indicative of how uncertain things are. Pattern is fragile with a lot of moving parts, any one of them could be on to something as we do not know what the outcome will be. How ever the model initializes the moving parts is the eventual outcome. Complexity of a Miller B. From climo, they are usually not too favorable for the Mid Atlantic, more so the Northeast and we are seeing those trends. Fact is, the 500 trough and upper low are not all that impressive until later in the game. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Okay, I understand that...but what I'm saying is, does a weaker WAA mean an earlier coastal? Or are they not connected like that? Dont worry yourself to death and get caught between IMBY'ism. It's game time. We all only care about our yards. I'm honest about it. Some like to wish everybody gets the same amount but that's not how this game works. You'll see all kinds of different "takes" on each run because people are only focusing on about 30 pixels of the entire digital map Know your climo. NS hybrids rarely jack anyone north of the potomac with part #1. I always expect to be in the middle unless there's ptype problems. Your area is lower and sw in VA is higher. It's how it works basically always. These storms also rarely jack my yard with part 2. NOVA fears part 2 for good reasons. Climo favors N-NE MD. I usually get some decent snow but again, fall in the middle. Your yard is typically higher and part 2 has higher ratios due to cold column and upper level support. This helps juice accums for the lucky ones. Models struggle dearly with part 2 because a ton of sh!t has to happen first before part 2 gets going. As leads shorten, more and more of the important things are resolved and out of the way. We're close to that part but were still talking Monday, not Sunday. We won't know for sure how part 2 breaks until snow is already falling. Even then we wont know because storms like this have a long standing habit of doing unexpected things. I personally dgaf what models show tonight or even tomorrow night for part 2 as long as my yard is still generally in the game for something decent. Lastly there's the WD and WND indexes to consider. In 2016 my yard got absolutely raked in the deform bands. I was right on the line but got smoked. For that reason alone I don't expect to be in the jackpot zone in either part but I am expecting a very fun, long duration, instant stickage, multi faceted storm. These are rare and amazing. If you get a foot and it bugs you that somewhere relatively close gets 18", you'll never have fun doing this 16 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: The large discrepancy between all the models is indicative of how uncertain things are. Pattern is fragile with a lot of moving parts, any one of them could be on to something as we do not know what the outcome will be. How ever the model initializes the moving parts is the eventual outcome. Complexity of a Miller B. From climo, they are usually not too favorable for the Mid Atlantic, more so the Northeast and we are seeing those trends. Fact is, the 500 trough and upper low are not all that impressive until later in the game. Well, in this case, at least we have the WAA...as long as nothing negative happens with that, many of us get out of this with warning criteria, hopefully. As much as we'd love to have double digits, if we gotta fail with the CCB, 6-8" isn't a bad consolation prize! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 CMC ens mean is pretty wet for an ens mean...not the op of course 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Probably in to close, but FWIW, GEPS mean went up 2-4" area wide at 00z compared to 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well, in this case, at least we have the WAA...as long as nothing negative happens with that, many of us get out of this with warning criteria, hopefully. As much as we'd love to have double digits, if we gotta fail with the CCB, 6-8" isn't a bad consolation prize! except that if we fail on the CCB, 6-8" for areas north of DC probably isn't the default option. 3-5" seems more reasonable, and that could legitimately fall to 2-4" (see NAM nest). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: CMC ens mean is pretty wet for an ens mean...not the op of course 00z increased up to 0.5" in part of our forum lol over 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Every model has a more robust NS vortex coming down from Canada. This is similar to what happened with the December 2003 storm if it verifies. I was waiting for it but didn't think it would suddenly appear on one run. 6z runs are going to be telling to see if this is real or a hiccup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, high risk said: except that if we fail on the CCB, 6-8" for areas north of DC probably isn't the default option. 3-5" seems more reasonable, and that could legitimately fall to 2-4" (see NAM nest). Had that in the back of my brain as I was typing it...shoot. So we gonna need the CCB in order to achieve the recently elusive 5" warning level criteria? Oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, high risk said: except that if we fail on the CCB, 6-8" for areas north of DC probably isn't the default option. 3-5" seems more reasonable, and that could legitimately fall to 2-4" (see NAM nest). Luckily the areas most likely to fail with WAA are most likely to win with the ccb so it mitigates that somewhat. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Luckily the areas most likely to fail with WAA are most likely to win with the ccb so it mitigates that somewhat. Ah so there IS an inverse relationship? Lol (somewhat, at least?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CavalierHoo Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 38 minutes ago, stormtracker said: In addition to the consensus you said that was against the CMC (which I guess is good now?), now the UKMET is bad? Tell us why it can likely be thrown out, in your expert opinion. Why such a passive aggressive approach to this guy for the second time tonight? The UKMET is further south and lower in totals than most models. I'm sure you know this. Can't people post their opinions in this thread without a douchy comment? Practically half of the posts in this thread are about IMBY. Seems like the regulars get away with this.....regularly, without any gruff. Lighten up dude. Enjoy the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, CavalierHoo said: Why such a passive aggressive approach to this guy for the second time tonight? The UKMET is further south and lower in totals than most models. I'm sure you know this. Can't people post their opinions in this thread without a douchy comment? Practically half of the posts in this thread are about IMBY. Seems like the regulars get away with this.....regularly, without any gruff. Lighten up dude. Enjoy the snow. That guy has been trolling for days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, CavalierHoo said: Why such a passive aggressive approach to this guy for the second time tonight? The UKMET is further south and lower in totals than most models. I'm sure you know this. Can't people post their opinions in this thread without a douchy comment? Practically half of the posts in this thread are about IMBY. Seems like the regulars get away with this.....regularly, without any gruff. Lighten up dude. Enjoy the snow. Because early Friday afternoon that same guy said that the CMC couldn't be trusted, without ever giving a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: That guy has been trolling for days. Why he hasn’t been banned is beyond me. It’s been daaaays of the same comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 So with only the euro left...the NAM is late with the CCB and a miss but has the best WAA lol. But among the other guidance DC gets clipped good by the ccb on the gfs (yea too much rain due to gfs awful thermals) rgem, ggem and icon. And the UK is south and a VA to DC special. VAs results were hurt most tonight by a trend to suppress the WAA wave more. Unfortunately once you get SW of DC a higher % of their snow was always going to be the WAA. So that drying up will hurt the further south more and north less. The euro is big Imo. So long as it doesn’t agree with the NAM I don’t think we’ve seen a huge shift in the CCB. We have seen the WAA weaken and that’s a problem for the southern 1/2 of the region that need that to be the majority of their snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 00z EURO at 24 -- 998mb SLP in C MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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