Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: The large discrepancy between all the models is indicative of how uncertain things are. Pattern is fragile with a lot of moving parts, any one of them could be on to something as we do not know what the outcome will be. How ever the model initializes the moving parts is the eventual outcome. Complexity of a Miller B. From climo, they are usually not too favorable for the Mid Atlantic, more so the Northeast and we are seeing those trends. Fact is, the 500 trough and upper low are not all that impressive until later in the game. Well, in this case, at least we have the WAA...as long as nothing negative happens with that, many of us get out of this with warning criteria, hopefully. As much as we'd love to have double digits, if we gotta fail with the CCB, 6-8" isn't a bad consolation prize! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Probably in to close, but FWIW, GEPS mean went up 2-4" area wide at 00z compared to 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well, in this case, at least we have the WAA...as long as nothing negative happens with that, many of us get out of this with warning criteria, hopefully. As much as we'd love to have double digits, if we gotta fail with the CCB, 6-8" isn't a bad consolation prize! except that if we fail on the CCB, 6-8" for areas north of DC probably isn't the default option. 3-5" seems more reasonable, and that could legitimately fall to 2-4" (see NAM nest). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: CMC ens mean is pretty wet for an ens mean...not the op of course 00z increased up to 0.5" in part of our forum lol over 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Every model has a more robust NS vortex coming down from Canada. This is similar to what happened with the December 2003 storm if it verifies. I was waiting for it but didn't think it would suddenly appear on one run. 6z runs are going to be telling to see if this is real or a hiccup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, high risk said: except that if we fail on the CCB, 6-8" for areas north of DC probably isn't the default option. 3-5" seems more reasonable, and that could legitimately fall to 2-4" (see NAM nest). Had that in the back of my brain as I was typing it...shoot. So we gonna need the CCB in order to achieve the recently elusive 5" warning level criteria? Oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, high risk said: except that if we fail on the CCB, 6-8" for areas north of DC probably isn't the default option. 3-5" seems more reasonable, and that could legitimately fall to 2-4" (see NAM nest). Luckily the areas most likely to fail with WAA are most likely to win with the ccb so it mitigates that somewhat. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Luckily the areas most likely to fail with WAA are most likely to win with the ccb so it mitigates that somewhat. Ah so there IS an inverse relationship? Lol (somewhat, at least?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CavalierHoo Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 38 minutes ago, stormtracker said: In addition to the consensus you said that was against the CMC (which I guess is good now?), now the UKMET is bad? Tell us why it can likely be thrown out, in your expert opinion. Why such a passive aggressive approach to this guy for the second time tonight? The UKMET is further south and lower in totals than most models. I'm sure you know this. Can't people post their opinions in this thread without a douchy comment? Practically half of the posts in this thread are about IMBY. Seems like the regulars get away with this.....regularly, without any gruff. Lighten up dude. Enjoy the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, CavalierHoo said: Why such a passive aggressive approach to this guy for the second time tonight? The UKMET is further south and lower in totals than most models. I'm sure you know this. Can't people post their opinions in this thread without a douchy comment? Practically half of the posts in this thread are about IMBY. Seems like the regulars get away with this.....regularly, without any gruff. Lighten up dude. Enjoy the snow. That guy has been trolling for days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, CavalierHoo said: Why such a passive aggressive approach to this guy for the second time tonight? The UKMET is further south and lower in totals than most models. I'm sure you know this. Can't people post their opinions in this thread without a douchy comment? Practically half of the posts in this thread are about IMBY. Seems like the regulars get away with this.....regularly, without any gruff. Lighten up dude. Enjoy the snow. Because early Friday afternoon that same guy said that the CMC couldn't be trusted, without ever giving a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: That guy has been trolling for days. Why he hasn’t been banned is beyond me. It’s been daaaays of the same comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 So with only the euro left...the NAM is late with the CCB and a miss but has the best WAA lol. But among the other guidance DC gets clipped good by the ccb on the gfs (yea too much rain due to gfs awful thermals) rgem, ggem and icon. And the UK is south and a VA to DC special. VAs results were hurt most tonight by a trend to suppress the WAA wave more. Unfortunately once you get SW of DC a higher % of their snow was always going to be the WAA. So that drying up will hurt the further south more and north less. The euro is big Imo. So long as it doesn’t agree with the NAM I don’t think we’ve seen a huge shift in the CCB. We have seen the WAA weaken and that’s a problem for the southern 1/2 of the region that need that to be the majority of their snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 00z EURO at 24 -- 998mb SLP in C MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Looks like a lil better ridging out west at 00z 36 compared to 12z 48 to me... yes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Looks like a lil better ridging out west at 00z 36 compared to 12z 48 to me... yes? Slight but noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 One last point with ccb trends. This is the Cmc ensemble. Totals in central VA went down ENE because the WAA trended weaker. But the CCB trended a lot better. This is just the ccb part from 12z to 0z overall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Central VA seemed to lose 1-2” on the thump on this 00z EURO run. Real bummer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Agrees with the cutback in WAA which I don’t want to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Imagine if this storm was at least a double phased system or at least stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 994mb SLP just east of Ocean City, MD at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I will take that CCB placement in the Euro, low gets tucked in closer to the coast, though... a more obvious dry slot and a bit warmer overall. Probably a period of drizzle/freezing drizzle (depending how cold the surface is) around Monday AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Fairly good agreement (Euro, Canadian, Both GFS, NAM) of a Philly-NYC jackpot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: I will take that CCB placement in the Euro Show us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Might be the most ragged, epic storm in recent history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: I have a feeling we will see high ratios. Its really cold.. it ill be one of those instant accumulation deals.. Hope we can squeeze 6-12 over CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 25 minutes ago, CavalierHoo said: Why such a passive aggressive approach to this guy for the second time tonight? The UKMET is further south and lower in totals than most models. I'm sure you know this. Can't people post their opinions in this thread without a douchy comment? Practically half of the posts in this thread are about IMBY. Seems like the regulars get away with this.....regularly, without any gruff. Lighten up dude. Enjoy the snow. Actually, it's the 3rd time tonight. And he's constantly been posting junk, even before tonight. Learn to read a room before you lecture. But yeah, I'm good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 As Deck Pic pointed out, this is really spread out. I’m putting all my eggs in the WAA which was about 3-5” in DC. Sunday will look pretty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 If I didn't know what the other models were saying, I'd love the Euro, but I hate it so much right now. I lost an inch or so on this run, VA burbs lose 2-3". Baltimore gains though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts