clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 CMC cut back on the waa this run. 3 or 4 inches for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, paweather said: This is a win for everyone. Thanks southern PA guy!! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: CMC cut back on the waa this run. 3 or 4 inches for everyone. Not the trend I like to see continue on the 00z suite. Hopefully that reverses tomorrow as the mesos get into range. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 CMC hour 108 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's the best case scenario, especially for DC/I-66 and points south. There definitely has been a northward tick with the 00z runs. Hopefully it's just a blip and when the Euro comes out it'll hold serve. The 00z suite is the first set of models that has all of the energy well onshore and sample by the RAOB network so we should see the guidance get a better handle on things quickly. CMC is best case scenario for everyone. Form VA to ME just about. It's the only model showing a HECS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: A little late here on this question, but any indication how that snow is "distributed" between the initial WAA and CCB parts? Just curious. It’s hard to pin for everyone because the rain snow line is moving north then sinking south. But for the DC metro and northern VA this is all snow from the WAA and this is snow from the CCB so far tonight my only qualm for N VA would be the coastal capture is happening a little slower and that risks shifting the CCB northeast of the area if it develops too late. But that’s always a risk with a miller b. The DC split. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: CMC cut back on the waa this run. 3 or 4 inches for everyone. Would that be the first sign that things are going wrong? I remember a storm like this once about 10 years ago where we were supposed to get a foot and the next morning I had two inches and regular citizens in Philly were digging snow out of the stadium in order to have a football game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, gopper said: CMC hour 108 NE MD pummelled! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, blueberryfaygo said: Would that be the first sign that things are going wrong? I remember a storm like this once about 10 years ago where we were supposed to get a foot and the next morning I had two inches and regular citizens in Philly were digging snow out of the stadium in order to have a football game. The CMC just dumped over a foot of snow in your neighborhood. There may be reasons to worry, but the CMC isn’t one of them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: NE MD pummelled! Baltimore City pummeled, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Thanks southern PA guy!! Sorry been on this forum since Marcus I needed to just say something, I don't mean any harm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: NE MD pummelled! what worries me is I keep seeing that southern NJ jackpot... back in December a storm pivoted over the NE like this one.. and some people saw all time records.. the way this thing tucks and pivots tells me that their is going to be a isolated max potential area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s hard to pin for everyone because the rain snow line is moving north then sinking south. But for the DC metro and northern VA this is all snow from the WAA and this is snow from the CCB so far tonight my only qualm for N VA would be the coastal capture is happening a little slower and that risks shifting the CCB northeast of the area if it develops too late. But that’s always a risk with a miller b. The DC split. Thanks, PSU, that's an excellent and clear delineation there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, blueberryfaygo said: Would that be the first sign that things are going wrong? I remember a storm like this once about 10 years ago where we were supposed to get a foot and the next morning I had two inches and regular citizens in Philly were digging snow out of the stadium in order to have a football game. Depends where you live. I certainly dont like the trend at 0Z for my area. But up where you are you should be pretty happy. I had pretty low expectations for my area anyways. We always get screwed in Miller B's. ALWAYS. I was hoping to snag 6 inches with the waa. But that has trended down tonight as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: Depends where you live. I certainly dont like the trend at 0Z for my area. But up where you are you should be pretty happy. I had pretty low expectations for my area anyways. We always get screwed in Miller B's. ALWAYS. I was hoping to snag 6 inches with the waa. But that has trended down tonight as well. Alright I'm confused here...we're seeing more favorable trends with the coastal/CCB, right? Now, is there some kind of inverse relationship with the WAA for areas like yours? (Apologies...just trying to visualize the scenarios here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, blueberryfaygo said: what worries me is I keep seeing that southern NJ jackpot... back in December a storm pivoted over the NE like this one.. and some people saw all time records.. the way this thing tucks and pivots tells me that their is going to be a isolated max potential area. You are new, and welcome to the board, but storm mode is really not supposed to be for IMBY questions. Hit banter for that. We in Baltimore always have plenty to worry about, but that CMC run was not one of them. Who cares if southern NJ jacks if we have 15-20. Let's be real. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Alright I'm confused here...we're seeing more favorable trends with the coastal/CCB, right? Now, is there some kind of inverse relationship with the WAA for areas like yours? (Apologies...just trying to visualize the scenarios here) WAA too weak and not as robust on early totals and coastal develops too late so no backside. His worry is the fail worry for any of us in a MillerB. Magnified where he is because backside in a Miller B is harder to catch out that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: WAA too weak and not as robust on early totals and coastal develops too late so no backside. His worry is the fail worry for any of us in a MillerB. Magnified where he is because backside in a Miller B is harder to catch out that way. Okay, I understand that...but what I'm saying is, does a weaker WAA mean an earlier coastal? Or are they not connected like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Okay, I understand that...but what I'm saying is, does a weaker WAA mean an earlier coastal? Or are they not connected like that? It can. And probably you should take this to banter. A weaker front end and a sloppy late transfer is a thing. Then the storm blows up north of our latitude. Cross your fingers, other than the NAM twins, nothing else really showing that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hola cheet... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just for posterity but goodness. Still some light snow falling too hah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: It can. And probably you should take this to banter. A weaker front end and a sloppy late transfer is a thing. Then the storm blows up north of our latitude. Cross your fingers, other than the NAM twins, nothing else really showing that. It’s alright if it’s here. This is good discussion between runs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 zoomed in Kuchera through 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Alright I'm confused here...we're seeing more favorable trends with the coastal/CCB, right? Now, is there some kind of inverse relationship with the WAA for areas like yours? (Apologies...just trying to visualize the scenarios here) Your backyard is seeing favorable trends with the coastal. DC/NOVA isn’t, at least with the 00z suite so far except the CMC which just got NOVA into the coastal. The initial slug of moisture from the WAA going south isn’t necessarily indicative of the coastal deepening in a great location for NOVA on north...they are two separate things. That is more dependent on the orientation of the trough, strength of 500 low, etc. At least I think. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, yoda said: zoomed in Kuchera through 102 What I would for this to be true. It gets almost everyone a beatdown in the entire region. Shares the wealth with everyone, even a huge chunk of the Eastern Shore. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 UK looked decent so far, not done yet, but I like it. Nothing as ridiculous as the CMC, but I don’t need to tell you all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, yoda said: zoomed in Kuchera through 102 lol no way. That’s 30+ imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 There are places in Pa on the Ukie that get 3-5 inches where the cmc drops the 40” spot. Ukie is mostly central va with the WAA then the coastal deform is through the cities and NE. Well south of the cmc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 UKMET a big outlier at this point... likely can be thrown out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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