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Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD


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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Hope we don't see this creep north with each run though. IMO, by 12z tomorrow we'll probably know if we're looking at a low end warning event or if something special is coming down the pike. Having flashbacks from December.

We were just worrying about suppression 12 hrs ago...lol Like psu said, there is definitely a limit to how far north things get. That confluence is definitely there...but just weak enough to help, hopefully.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Holy cow is that a good run. Snows forever on the back side. Expanded the deform significantly also like the euro did. 

It's good for you.  As expected.   Luckily, I'm a city boy and I'm fine with high single digits.  5 to 10 and I'll be just fine.

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16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

We were just worrying about suppression 12 hrs ago...lol Like psu said, there is definitely a limit to how far north things get. That confluence is definitely there...but just weak enough to help, hopefully.

12 hours ago that vort over New England was trending south. It has since relaxed some. But in a way suppressed is still an issue just not in an easily apparent way. But the fail option is to see the WAA wave suppressed...then have the coastal develop too late like the NAM. That ends up looking like the problem was a north trend because the coastal wraps snow back in to our north but in reality suppression initially helped that happen.  We need a storm to develop a healthy circulation and amp up quicker down here compared to the other northeast cities further up the coast.  

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Gfs is still a notch too far north imo for the 95 corridor (to alleviate dry slot and coastal transfer concerns) and has been essentially all week, but it’s close enough and there’s a snowstorm incoming. Gotta think that by tomorrow there’ll be more of a consensus of where the best banding will appear.

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