Negnao Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Just remember, it's a Miller B. That’s why I liked the euro runs with a weaker coastal that went E rather than NE up the coast from our latitude. Wasn’t a blockbuster but it was clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM 500 trough is swinging across positively tilted and the upper low is closed, but the best forcing is generally north of where the closed circulation crosses. Trough needs to swing across neutral or even a bit negative tilt. Coastal does not get captured or tuck where it needs to and we torch, stay out of the CCB. At least it’s just the nam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 LWX's new snow map is decent. Would be the biggest event for many in several years and meet or exceed January climo for IAD, DCA, and BWI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 There will probably be some drizzle and freezing drizzle once the dry slot rolls in. Could be an extended period of it too. The reason is that cloud top temps warm above -10C as the dry slot erodes it away, leaving no very few ice crystals available for snow formation. Still plenty of moisture underneath that and some background lift though, so there will be drizzle. That's going to be an issue until/unless the coastal low can set up a reasonable def. zone and ccb to remoisten the column. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: IMO, LWX's new snow map is decent but given the NAMs being bad for us, I don't see it going any higher. I was just thinking that it’s interesting when the pros see things one way and weenies see it another. I can’t say for certain but I highly doubt they are hanging their forecast on the NAMfrom this range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Hard to put much faith in the NAM past about 36 hours. That's what I'm saying, lol Is it really worth parsing (pr panicking over) the details of it right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: At least it’s just the nam . Attention should be paid to it. The NAM even beyond 48 hours can give insight into how the smaller details may be evolving. Guidance is guidance. We shouldn’t look at it’s QPF verbatim, but more so to understand it’s evolution. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I was just thinking that it’s interesting when the pros see things one way and weenies see it another. I can’t say for certain but I highly doubt they are hanging their forecast on the NAMfrom this range This. I'm sure Lwx isn't second guessing there snow map because of a NAM run from 48 hours out. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Attention should be paid to it. The NAM even beyond 48 hours can give insight into how the smaller details may be evolving. Guidance is guidance. We shouldn’t look at it’s QPF verbatim, but more so to understand it’s evolution. Correct. Everyone laughed back in December when the NAM was the first model to show that storm coming much further west and ruining chances for heavy snow along the I-95 corridor. That doesn't at all mean that it's correct now, but to completely dismiss it at this stage comes with risk. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, high risk said: Correct. Everyone laughed back in December when the NAM was the first model to show that storm coming much further west and ruining chances for heavy snow along the I-95 corridor. That doesn't at all mean that it's correct now, but to completely dismiss it at this stage comes with risk. You and I are on the same page, NAM kept bumping that mix line NW and folks just laughed it off until it became clear things were going that way. Also wanted to say that somehow when I quoted this post it added a ''laugh'' reaction and I can't change it because I hit my limit for the day. Weird. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 00z RGEM keeps most of the LWX CWA in snow through 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 RGEM is better than 18z. Back end love is real. Flip between the two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, high risk said: Correct. Everyone laughed back in December when the NAM was the first model to show that storm coming much further west and ruining chances for heavy snow along the I-95 corridor. That doesn't at all mean that it's correct now, but to completely dismiss it at this stage comes with risk. What was odd was the mslp actually improved slightly but the storm had a “blown out” look to it and never wrapped back up. Very odd to have a captured tucked low off OC and all the precip is up in PA. ETA: ehh on second look the low gets captured further north then I thought on first glacé. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: RGEM is better than 18z. Back end love is real. Flip between the two @mappy cleans up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: RGEM out to lunch in its fantasy land unfortunately. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: RGEM is better than 18z. Back end love is real. Flip between the two OK, well...that's good to see after what the NAM just did. It's been kind of consistent overall, no? Not saying it's right, but maybe it's something. On to the globals now, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, yoda said: @mappy cleans up Yup. It's better for all, but NE MD crew on N and E does very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Philly gets hammered on the RGEM. It joined the Euro with the outer band over me as well. Great run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Rgem is better for the northeast and NE md (for our forum) and about the same or so for dc and south. Maybe a little worse dc and south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 RGEM just dropped like 30” on Wilmington. Lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Three feet of snow right at Hockessin on the RGEM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Three feet of snow right at Hockessin on the RGEM Check this out 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, snowfan said: RGEM just dropped like 30” on Wilmington. Lol. OMG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, frd said: OMG RGEM has been doing that, 2 runs ago @CAPE was getting 24" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_K76 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 51 minutes ago, BristowWx said: At 69 hours out in the future nothing is real That’s what the prophetic forecasters are for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: RGEM is better than 18z. Back end love is real. Flip between the two Holy cow is that a good run. Snows forever on the back side. Expanded the deform significantly also like the euro did. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, SnowtoRain said: RGEM has been doing that, 2 runs ago @CAPE was getting 24" We are closer to the event , wondering if these higher totals carry any weight, sampling should be better as mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, frd said: OMG That looks sweet! It’s good to see the max snow area migrating north finally. 1 5 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Holy cow is that a good run. Snows forever on the back side. Expanded the deform significantly also like the euro did. Hope we don't see this creep north with each run though. IMO, by 12z tomorrow we'll probably know if we're looking at a low end warning event or if something special is coming down the pike. Having flashbacks from December. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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