wasnow215 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Even down here in RIC we’ll take that 12/9/18 let’s go!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Wes just said on the CWG stream that he doesn't believe the GFS thermals - thinks Euro is right. Just to ease concerns. Can I get GFS precip with euro thermals? TIA! Yes, precip and thermal profiles go hand in hand often... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 38 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: Why are the ensembles so much snowier down here in the Richmond area? Is this skewed by an outlier or too? Euro/eps has been the coldest global leading in. I havent looked at nearly as many maps as others around here with this storm but I do know the euro suite is the most optimistic with cold. You're def getting plenty of precip. Just need CAD to flex. You know your climo better than me tho. That always matters in the midatlantic regardless of what models say 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 LWX AFD Update at 9:00 PM .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 9:00 PM UPDATE: No change to the previous forecast at this time, but some increase in expected snow totals may be necessary in the next shift. Model guidance continue to increase in confidence of 4-7" for most areas along and west of I-95, with the higher end of that starting to look a little more likely. Would like to see another round of guidance before bumping things up just yet. For now, see the previous update and discusison for more detailed thoughts. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 From Mt Holly, includes Eastern Shore, surprisingly even. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. HRRR is trash that far out. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. I think you should avoid paying too much attention to the HRRR at 48h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. Most people around here only use the HRRR right before the onset. Late tomorrow night and Sunday morning it will get discussed more. It’s not generally thought to be too useful past like 12 hours or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 WAA looks solid on the 0Z NAM .6-.7 for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12km NAM holding serve with a very wet front side. 6” WAA thump. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 We Take! 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. I never looks HRRR or CAMS beyond 24 hours before an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: HRRR is trash that far out . The caveat is that after a few runs of the 3km NAM being dry, I’m not sad to see 0.6” qpf on the other mesoscale model prior to 00z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: The caveat is that after a few runs of the 3km NAM being dry, I’m not sad to see 0.6” qpf on the other mesoscale model prior to 00z. And on queue, the NAM 3km is very dry on the front side again. 0.2” QPF by 00z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM thump not near as good out this way. And it torches at 850 at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I know it’s the SREF but it’s still better for them to look good then bad. And they look VERY good. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I know it’s the SREF but it’s still better for them to look good then bad. And they look VERY good. Are you looking at QPF on there FWIW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM isn’t having the back end for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 h5 looks better at 00z 66 compared to 18z at 72, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hour 69 NAM....I dont know if the thermals are real but the tuck is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, poolz1 said: Hour 69 NAM....I dont know if the thermals are real but the tuck is real. At 69 hours out in the future nothing is real 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: NAM isn’t having the back end for us. what? it's only at 69 hours. Prob should wait until we get to the time period where the back end starts. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: what? it's only at 69 hours. Prob should wait until we get to the time period where the back end starts. It doesn't on PW... but it does have a dual low structure set up it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3KM NAM fills in pretty quickly after the waa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Our worst-case scenario seems to be the 00z NAM Nest dry front side and the 00z 12km NAM dry backside. That’s about a 3” storm for many of us along 95. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hard to put much faith in the NAM past about 36 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The nam3k seems always dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: It doesn't on PW... but it does have a dual low structure set up it appears what hour on PW tho? Because at 18z the back end didn't start until like 72/78 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM still snowing out here at 12Z Tuesday. 8 inches in 50 hours I would be able to count the snowflakes as they fall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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