Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, Yeoman said: more neutral tilt.. better Does that help to keep the storm closer to the coast? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Does that help to keep the storm closer to the coast? You see that greater than 18 inch Euro probability map posted above? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Dark sky forecast calls for 3-6” Sunday and 4-7” Monday. Wouldn’t that be nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 CWG doing a live video chat on their facebook page.. Wes is about to start his presentation 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 21 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Check this out. Definite west cluster that are likely a clobbering with the costal. Would explain why the 12 inch probabilities went up a fair bit (for reference, the larger L is the op Euro, the rest are the EPS low pressure cluster) I'd imagine the numbers PSU referenced for the ratio of SE to tucked has drastically changed. Seems like a pretty wide spread at such short range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 30 minutes ago, LP08 said: Best run yet. Even down here in RIC we’ll take that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: CWG doing a live video chat on their facebook page.. Wes is about to start his presentation Is Bob Ryan the camera man? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, RVASnowLover said: Even down here in RIC we’ll take that That’s a NOVA special with a side of fries. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: BTW I think you can still do pretty good with a more amped solution...I think a decent front end is likely and then so long as the storm exits more east then north (likely given the blocking) that deform axis will be shifting southeast as it exits and can clip you on the way out. March 2018 was a good example of that. It will be interesting to see how the mesos roll as we get more into their wheelhouse. The Fgen banding area will make all the difference for some. As long as the front end stays good and there isn't too much warming, a modest back end is fine. GFS is the one model that still annoys me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: GFS is the one model that still annoys me. It often does that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Pretty uniform maps. Nice to have almost everyone in the same spot for an event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I’m headed out to snowshoe, WV tomorrow for this event. Hopefully I’ll see 12+ for the event total. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Pretty uniform maps. Nice to have almost everyone in the same spot for an event. Your top map is outdated 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Wes just said on the CWG stream that he doesn't believe the GFS thermals - thinks Euro is right. Just to ease concerns. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Even down here in RIC we’ll take that 12/9/18 let’s go!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Wes just said on the CWG stream that he doesn't believe the GFS thermals - thinks Euro is right. Just to ease concerns. Can I get GFS precip with euro thermals? TIA! Yes, precip and thermal profiles go hand in hand often... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 38 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: Why are the ensembles so much snowier down here in the Richmond area? Is this skewed by an outlier or too? Euro/eps has been the coldest global leading in. I havent looked at nearly as many maps as others around here with this storm but I do know the euro suite is the most optimistic with cold. You're def getting plenty of precip. Just need CAD to flex. You know your climo better than me tho. That always matters in the midatlantic regardless of what models say 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 LWX AFD Update at 9:00 PM .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 9:00 PM UPDATE: No change to the previous forecast at this time, but some increase in expected snow totals may be necessary in the next shift. Model guidance continue to increase in confidence of 4-7" for most areas along and west of I-95, with the higher end of that starting to look a little more likely. Would like to see another round of guidance before bumping things up just yet. For now, see the previous update and discusison for more detailed thoughts. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 From Mt Holly, includes Eastern Shore, surprisingly even. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. HRRR is trash that far out. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. I think you should avoid paying too much attention to the HRRR at 48h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. Most people around here only use the HRRR right before the onset. Late tomorrow night and Sunday morning it will get discussed more. It’s not generally thought to be too useful past like 12 hours or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 WAA looks solid on the 0Z NAM .6-.7 for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12km NAM holding serve with a very wet front side. 6” WAA thump. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 We Take! 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. I never looks HRRR or CAMS beyond 24 hours before an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: HRRR is trash that far out . The caveat is that after a few runs of the 3km NAM being dry, I’m not sad to see 0.6” qpf on the other mesoscale model prior to 00z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: The caveat is that after a few runs of the 3km NAM being dry, I’m not sad to see 0.6” qpf on the other mesoscale model prior to 00z. And on queue, the NAM 3km is very dry on the front side again. 0.2” QPF by 00z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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