Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: There have been too many...Not sure if you were here for 1/22/05, but we were under warnings and expecting 8+ and it just jetted out....like a 3-4 hour period of moderate to heavy snow and scooted out...I think I got 3" Yea, gotta be ready for that becuase radar doesnt extrapolate well. No implying we dont do very well but the boom potential for the WAA is sw of us like almost every time. The obvious tradeoff is we get the deform and sw of us doesn't. It's when both pieces bust that send me walking the streets kicking anything alive that I see. 7 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, nj2va said: Much better run for DC. Doubled the snowfall from 12z. It’s the rare region wide storm that gets RIC all the way to the M/D line. There are always fewer people posting inside the beltway than I expect, but I'm one who is more than happy with the 18z VS 12z, at least if you take them at face value. Things are coming together nicely for a good DC snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 That hole is an area that got unlucky twice. Ended up between bands during the WAA then again during the deform. Subsidence can be cruel. Btw euro started to pick up on that duel banding structure on the NW side that happens EVERY time. There will always, in EVERY storm, be unlucky little pockets like that. I actually ended up in one in 2016. I got 28”, and no I’m not complaining one bit I’m not crazy, but all around me got 30-36”. I ended up in a couple dead zones between banding and oh well. But no model can get either the meso banding or the associated screw zones between them right from 24 hours let alone 72 so I wouldn’t sweat it. That’s something for the now cast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 1/16/03 is an example....super cold...under a warning and the storm just colossally shit the bed and dried up. maybe like 0.5"....so many disasters, I could post about them all night...but I won't...good vibes At least 03 kept paying us back into march. Nurses the wounds. Some of the recent busts during crazy snow droughts is weenie waterboarding 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said: There are always fewer people posting inside the beltway than I expect, but I'm one who is more than happy with the 18z VS 12z, at least if you take them at face value. Things are coming together nicely for a good DC snow. There are actually relatively few storms of any sort of consequence where I have felt that inside-the-beltway gets totally screwed over, where its a total dud here while areas within a half-hour of Downtown DC cash in. I think there was one storm in 2006 where DC got like 6 inches and Columbia Maryland got like 20. I think the big bust in March of 2011 or so also left DC with very little while parts of Fairfax got like 8 inches. But it rarely seems to work out like that. At least until you get to Upper Montgomery or Frederick Counties, we tend to rise or fall together more than it may seem, unless we are talking about 1 to 2 inch or 2 to 4 inch type storms or ice events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That hole is an area that got unlucky twice. Ended up between bands during the WAA then again during the deform. Subsidence can be cruel. Btw euro started to pick up on that duel banding structure on the NW side that happens EVERY time. There will always, in EVERY storm, be unlucky little pockets like that. I actually ended up in one in 2016. I got 28”, and no I’m not complaining one bit I’m not crazy, but all around me got 30-36”. I ended up in a couple dead zones between banding and oh well. But no model can get either the meso banding or the associated screw zones between them right from 24 hours let alone 72 so I wouldn’t sweat it. That’s something for the now cast. Surprised the snow map looked that good here given the lack of precip for several hours, with the banding just to the NW. That has been the trend though the last 2-3 runs, as I told you it would be last night when you were sure this was on the road to suppression lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said: There are always fewer people posting inside the beltway than I expect, but I'm one who is more than happy with the 18z VS 12z, at least if you take them at face value. Things are coming together nicely for a good DC snow. Yep, we’ll likely mix at some point but if we get 4-6” from the WAA and 1-3/2-4 from the coastal, that’s basically 75% of our climo in one storm, ha. I’m excited. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Surprised the snow map looked that good here given the lack of precip for several hours, with the banding just to the NW. That has been the trend though the last 2-3 runs, as I told you it would be last night when you were sure this was on the road to suppression lol. It just wants to snow here this winter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 19 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: A bunch of maps have been showing snow holes right over my house. It is odd. Due to lower elevation in Frederick proper? The lower elevation might make sense. If you look at snowfall maps of average snow in this area, you can definitely see the effect of elevation in the region, but this sugarloaf snow hole just seems weird. It also looks like the lower amounts follow the Potomac river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 1/16/03 is an example....super cold...under a warning and the storm just colossally shit the bed and dried up. maybe like 0.5"....so many disasters, I could post about them all night...but I won't...good vibes I remember that one really well. Those were the Wright weather days. I was a senior in high school and stayed out drinking... long story short two hour delay. If I remember it was trending worse and worse and was supposed to be a 3-6 inch deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That hole is an area that got unlucky twice. Ended up between bands during the WAA then again during the deform. Subsidence can be cruel. Btw euro started to pick up on that duel banding structure on the NW side that happens EVERY time. There will always, in EVERY storm, be unlucky little pockets like that. I actually ended up in one in 2016. I got 28”, and no I’m not complaining one bit I’m not crazy, but all around me got 30-36”. I ended up in a couple dead zones between banding and oh well. But no model can get either the meso banding or the associated screw zones between them right from 24 hours let alone 72 so I wouldn’t sweat it. That’s something for the now cast. Hurts when it happens! In 1/25/2000, I got stuck between heavy bands to the east and west, and even had sun peaking out. I measured about 7" while areas all around got double or more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 31 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: A bunch of maps have been showing snow holes right over my house. It is odd. Due to lower elevation in Frederick proper? I wouldn't worry about it...I feel like FDK always over-performs a bit in coastals some how. Transient snows not so much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 That's a pretty significant shift on the EPS 06z vs 18z 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 42 minutes ago, H2O said: Could do without the mix threat. Been good with solid cold column that is REALLY hard to do on the coastal plain with a miller b hybrid where the primary is coming across west to east at about our latitude. Doesn't mean it can't end up a good storm...but there is almost always going to be a period during the transfer/secondary process where you end up in the dry slot and some of the warmer air riding across ahead of the wave sneaks in and without the dynamic and convective cooling and heavy precip to help mix out mid level warm layers...and to keep the surface saturated...its just hard. It's possible...and there was that one euro run (besides the runs many days ago when this was still in fantasy land range and models tend to mess up more major aspects) that struck the perfect balance, but you are playing with fire with that. To get all snow with a miller b coming across this far north you kind of need it to be de-amplifying and sinking southeast. But then you risk something like March 2013. If you hit the jackpot perfectly you can get something like that one euro run where it de-amplified the perfect amount then the coastal started to amplify just in time to give DC a 12" cold smoke outcome...but like I said that is walking a high wire and its playing with fire. You get SLIGHTLY more suppression and the coastal doesn't amp up in time with that scenario and suddenly you have a dying WAA wave and its a pathetic nothing burger for everyone. That said I am not ignoring the challenges of your geographic location. But you can do pretty good from the WAA thump still...4-6" is very possible...and then you need to have that deform band sink south on Monday and give you some love on the way out. If we can get this storm to tuck into the VA capes then fade ENE from there that is very much on the table. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 43 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I mean 8-12" for most of the region. with some higher amounts in the typical areas.....step up from 12z for sure....I'm sure someone will post WB kuchera maps shortly./.. I’ll take 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: Surprised the snow map looked that good here given the lack of precip for several hours, with the banding just to the NW. That has been the trend though the last 2-3 runs, as I told you it would be last night when you were sure this was on the road to suppression lol. That NS vort over New England that was trending south every run for 36 hours before reversing course was giving me shades of every great setup we have wasted in the last 5 years. It seems we've been screwed several times by something like that recently. Likely a correlation to the dominant NS patterns we've been in. Que someone with #remindsmeof2018 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: That's a pretty significant shift on the EPS 06z vs 18z Good shift yes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, yoda said: Good shift yes? more neutral tilt.. better 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: Surprised the snow map looked that good here given the lack of precip for several hours, with the banding just to the NW. That has been the trend though the last 2-3 runs, as I told you it would be last night when you were sure this was on the road to suppression lol. BTW I think you can still do pretty good with a more amped solution...I think a decent front end is likely and then so long as the storm exits more east then north (likely given the blocking) that deform axis will be shifting southeast as it exits and can clip you on the way out. March 2018 was a good example of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Best run yet. 6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Hurts when it happens! In 1/25/2000, I got stuck between heavy bands to the east and west, and even had sun peaking out. I measured about 7" while areas all around got double or more. Ironically the same happened to me where I was up in PA that year. Got about 8" but all around got like 10-12...was stuck between meso bands all afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Best run yet. Upped the 12" probabilities for most of the subforum too. And obviously given the low resolution this won't pick up on the usual areas that get death banded 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: The 18z Euro ens mean is pretty filthy...10:1 I can't decide if it's filthy or Stimpy after hitting the top shelf indica. 6 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I can't decide if it's filthy or Stimpy after hitting the top shelf indica. Check this out. Definite west cluster that are likely a clobbering with the costal. Would explain why the 12 inch probabilities went up a fair bit (for reference, the larger L is the op Euro, the rest are the EPS low pressure cluster) I'd imagine the numbers PSU referenced for the ratio of SE to tucked has drastically changed. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Nothing not to like about the EPS. More amplified less positively tilted trough. H5 cuts off in a better spot. Low is less progressive after being captured leading to the bump up in the snow mean. Most significantly a BIG expansion and ramping up of the precip shield across the members. Snowfall expanded on BOTH sides of the max stripe! That is a good sign heading into the home stretch. 23 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Wondering if we see this really amp up going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That hole is an area that got unlucky twice. Ended up between bands during the WAA then again during the deform. Subsidence can be cruel. Btw euro started to pick up on that duel banding structure on the NW side that happens EVERY time. There will always, in EVERY storm, be unlucky little pockets like that. I actually ended up in one in 2016. I got 28”, and no I’m not complaining one bit I’m not crazy, but all around me got 30-36”. I ended up in a couple dead zones between banding and oh well. But no model can get either the meso banding or the associated screw zones between them right from 24 hours let alone 72 so I wouldn’t sweat it. That’s something for the now cast. The 1/25/2000 did that to me in Sterling. Huge long lull over top of me with heavy stuff west and east of there! Edit: Ninjad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Wondering if we see this really amp up going forward. The Euro set the bar a few days ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 13 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I can't decide if it's filthy or Stimpy after hitting the top shelf indica. Why are the ensembles so much snowier down here in the Richmond area? Is this skewed by an outlier or too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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