Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD

[catoctin wx]

only because you asked

Sugarloaf mountain snow hole?


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[Deck Pic]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

only because you asked

That's pretty tasty...I think it's a nice run for the cities...have to flirt with mix to really get the goods

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

I wonder if the WWA snow ends up overperforming. I feel like we've seen that happen before and given the trajectory of the heavier snow to our southwest, you wonder if that pushes in early and rolls our way.

The prob we run into here (and it's very normal) is the waa piece will die off overhead during the transfer. That's why the big totals are almost always down by CHO and ROA etc. Loses some of the punch even tho sw of us gets clobbered. There was a storm that none of us should ever talk about ever again but it was an extreme case of the shutoff basically right overhead even though radar looked sick for hours leading in 

[SnowDreamer]

QPF vs 12Z big bump for immediate DC and NOVA, tick N

 

[nj2va]

Much better run for DC.  Doubled the snowfall from 12z.  It’s the rare region wide storm that gets RIC all the way to the M/D line.

[frd]

ECM max res 

 

[snowmagnet]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a grey area and we all have our own rating system. To me, true miller A's run the southern stream and turn the corner. They often run into the TN valley and transfer but imo they are still pure miller As. Any northern stream storm is a hybrid or miller B. This one is more of a hybrid than a miller B but we all think our own way

I’m happy to hear you say that because I don’t remember many Miller B’s that have worked out well IMBY. And so glad to hear from you!  The last good storm we had was the Bob Chill storm - 2 long years ago. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I think more like a toddler step with wraparound...the 12z scooted out rather abruptly

Agree it ended very well. Trough was less positively tilted. Low started to get going further west and tucked a bit more which had the desired effect on the deform zone across our area. I’m happy with it. It was a very acceptable run but left some room for improvements.  I do think we see a full tuck like other guidance on tonight’s run. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

only because you asked

It’s the Megaopolis storm from Kocin’s book.  DC to Boston

[Imgoinhungry]

2 minutes ago, catoctin wx said:

Sugarloaf mountain snow hole?


.

A bunch of maps have been showing snow holes right over my house.  It is odd.  Due to lower elevation in Frederick proper?

[Deck Pic]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The prob we run into here (and it's very normal) is the waa piece will die off overhead during the transfer. That's why the big totals are almost always down by CHO and ROA etc. Loses some of the punch even tho sw of us gets clobbered. There was a storm that none of us should ever talk about ever again but it was an extreme case of the shutoff basically right overhead even though radar looked sick for hours leading in 

There have been too many...Not sure if you were here for 1/22/05, but we were under warnings and expecting 8+ and it just jetted out....like a 3-4 hour period of moderate to heavy snow and scooted out...I think I got 3"

[Deck Pic]

Just now, Imgoinhungry said:

A bunch of maps have been showing snow holes right over my house.  It is odd.  Due to lower elevation in Frederick proper?

FDK gets snow shadowed a fair amount, but you're still better off there than the cities, and sometimes the dryslot will miss you...I wouldn't sweat it too much

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The prob we run into here (and it's very normal) is the waa piece will die off overhead during the transfer. That's why the big totals are almost always down by CHO and ROA etc. Loses some of the punch even tho sw of us gets clobbered. There was a storm that none of us should ever talk about ever again but it was an extreme case of the shutoff basically right overhead even though radar looked sick for hours leading in 

You are back and answered my burning question already.  Why EZF max and NE from there in my yard less.  You can see the fade from SW to NE.  Vacation is over Bob...back to work sir!  

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

There have been too many...Not sure if you were here for 1/22/05, but we were under warnings and expecting 8+ and it just jetted out....like a 3-4 hour period of moderate to heavy snow and scooted out...I think I got 3"

Yea, gotta be ready for that becuase radar doesnt extrapolate well. No implying we dont do very well but the boom potential for the WAA is sw of us like almost every time. The obvious tradeoff is we get the deform and sw of us doesn't. It's when both pieces bust that send me walking the streets kicking anything alive that I see. 

[Deck Pic]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Yea, gotta be ready for that becuase radar doesnt extrapolate well. No implying we dont do very well but the boom potential for the WAA is sw of us like almost every time. The obvious tradeoff is we get the deform and sw of us doesn't. It's when both pieces bust that send me walking the streets kicking anything alive that I see. 

1/16/03 is an example....super cold...under a warning and the storm just colossally shit the bed and dried up.  maybe like 0.5"....so many disasters, I could post about them all night...but I won't...good vibes

[dukeblue219]

11 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Much better run for DC.  Doubled the snowfall from 12z.  It’s the rare region wide storm that gets RIC all the way to the M/D line.

There are always fewer people posting inside the beltway than I expect, but I'm one who is more than happy with the 18z VS 12z, at least if you take them at face value. Things are coming together nicely for a good DC snow. 

[psuhoffman]

That hole is an area that got unlucky twice. Ended up between bands during the WAA then again during the deform. Subsidence can be cruel. Btw euro started to pick up on that duel banding structure on the NW side that happens EVERY time. There will always, in EVERY storm, be unlucky little pockets like that. I actually ended up in one in 2016. I got 28”, and no I’m not complaining one bit I’m not crazy, but all around me got 30-36”. I ended up in a couple dead zones between banding and oh well. But no model can get either the meso banding or the associated screw zones between them right from 24 hours let alone 72 so I wouldn’t sweat it.  That’s something for the now cast. 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

1/16/03 is an example....super cold...under a warning and the storm just colossally shit the bed and dried up.  maybe like 0.5"....so many disasters, I could post about them all night...but I won't...good vibes

At least 03 kept paying us back into march. Nurses the wounds. Some of the recent busts during crazy snow droughts is weenie waterboarding

[real]

10 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said:

There are always fewer people posting inside the beltway than I expect, but I'm one who is more than happy with the 18z VS 12z, at least if you take them at face value. Things are coming together nicely for a good DC snow. 

There are actually relatively few storms of any sort of consequence where I have felt that inside-the-beltway gets totally screwed over, where its a total dud here while areas within a half-hour of Downtown DC cash in.  I think there was one storm in 2006 where DC got like 6 inches and Columbia Maryland got like 20. I think the big bust in March of 2011 or so also left DC with very little while parts of Fairfax got like 8 inches.  But it rarely seems to work out like that. At least until you get to Upper Montgomery or Frederick Counties, we tend to rise or fall together more than it may seem, unless we are talking about 1 to 2 inch or 2 to 4 inch type storms or ice events. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That hole is an area that got unlucky twice. Ended up between bands during the WAA then again during the deform. Subsidence can be cruel. Btw euro started to pick up on that duel banding structure on the NW side that happens EVERY time. There will always, in EVERY storm, be unlucky little pockets like that. I actually ended up in one in 2016. I got 28”, and no I’m not complaining one bit I’m not crazy, but all around me got 30-36”. I ended up in a couple dead zones between banding and oh well. But no model can get either the meso banding or the associated screw zones between them right from 24 hours let alone 72 so I wouldn’t sweat it.  That’s something for the now cast. 

Surprised the snow map looked that good here given the lack of precip for several hours, with the banding just to the NW. That has been the trend though the last 2-3 runs, as I told you it would be last night when you were sure this was on the road to suppression lol.

[nj2va]

6 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said:

There are always fewer people posting inside the beltway than I expect, but I'm one who is more than happy with the 18z VS 12z, at least if you take them at face value. Things are coming together nicely for a good DC snow. 

Yep, we’ll likely mix at some point but if we get 4-6” from the WAA and 1-3/2-4 from the coastal, that’s basically 75% of our climo in one storm, ha.  I’m excited.

[JakkelWx]

Just now, CAPE said:

Surprised the snow map looked that good here given the lack of precip for several hours, with the banding just to the NW. That has been the trend though the last 2-3 runs, as I told you it would be last night when you were sure this was on the road to suppression lol.

It just wants to snow here this winter.

[jnis]

19 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

A bunch of maps have been showing snow holes right over my house.  It is odd.  Due to lower elevation in Frederick proper?

The lower elevation might make sense. If you look at snowfall maps of average snow in this area, you can definitely see the effect of elevation in the region, but this sugarloaf snow hole just seems weird. It also looks like the lower amounts follow the Potomac river.

[chris21]

18 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

1/16/03 is an example....super cold...under a warning and the storm just colossally shit the bed and dried up.  maybe like 0.5"....so many disasters, I could post about them all night...but I won't...good vibes

I remember that one really well. Those were the Wright weather days. I was a senior in high school and stayed out drinking... long story short two hour delay. If I remember it was trending worse and worse and was supposed to be a 3-6 inch deal.

[BlizzardNole]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That hole is an area that got unlucky twice. Ended up between bands during the WAA then again during the deform. Subsidence can be cruel. Btw euro started to pick up on that duel banding structure on the NW side that happens EVERY time. There will always, in EVERY storm, be unlucky little pockets like that. I actually ended up in one in 2016. I got 28”, and no I’m not complaining one bit I’m not crazy, but all around me got 30-36”. I ended up in a couple dead zones between banding and oh well. But no model can get either the meso banding or the associated screw zones between them right from 24 hours let alone 72 so I wouldn’t sweat it.  That’s something for the now cast. 

Hurts when it happens!  In 1/25/2000, I got stuck between heavy bands to the east and west, and even had sun peaking out.  I measured about 7" while areas all around got double or more.

 

[Solo2]

31 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

A bunch of maps have been showing snow holes right over my house.  It is odd.  Due to lower elevation in Frederick proper?

I wouldn't worry about it...I feel like FDK always over-performs a bit in coastals some how. Transient snows not so much...

[JakkelWx]

That's a pretty significant shift on the EPS 06z vs 18z

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, H2O said:

Could do without the mix threat. Been good with solid cold column

that is REALLY hard to do on the coastal plain with a miller b hybrid where the primary is coming across west to east at about our latitude.  Doesn't mean it can't end up a good storm...but there is almost always going to be a period during the transfer/secondary process where you end up in the dry slot and some of the warmer air riding across ahead of the wave sneaks in and without the dynamic and convective cooling and heavy precip to help mix out mid level warm layers...and to keep the surface saturated...its just hard.  It's possible...and there was that one euro run (besides the runs many days ago when this was still in fantasy land range and models tend to mess up more major aspects) that struck the perfect balance, but you are playing with fire with that.  To get all snow with a miller b coming across this far north you kind of need it to be de-amplifying and sinking southeast.  But then you risk something like March 2013.  If you hit the jackpot perfectly you can get something like that one euro run where it de-amplified the perfect amount then the coastal started to amplify just in time to give DC a 12" cold smoke outcome...but like I said that is walking a high wire and its playing with fire.  You get SLIGHTLY more suppression and the coastal doesn't amp up in time with that scenario and suddenly you have a dying WAA wave and its a pathetic nothing burger for everyone.  That said I am not ignoring the challenges of your geographic location.  But you can do pretty good from the WAA thump still...4-6" is very possible...and then you need to have that deform band sink south on Monday and give you some love on the way out.  If we can get this storm to tuck into the VA capes then fade ENE from there that is very much on the table.  

[stormtracker]

43 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I mean 8-12" for most of the region. with some higher amounts in the typical areas.....step up from 12z for sure....I'm sure someone will post WB kuchera maps shortly./..

I’ll take

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Surprised the snow map looked that good here given the lack of precip for several hours, with the banding just to the NW. That has been the trend though the last 2-3 runs, as I told you it would be last night when you were sure this was on the road to suppression lol.

That NS vort over New England that was trending south every run for 36 hours before reversing course was giving me shades of every great setup we have wasted in the last 5 years.  It seems we've been screwed several times by something like that recently.  Likely a correlation to the dominant NS patterns we've been in.  Que someone with #remindsmeof2018