Ji Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 He is right..but did anyone think this was even close to reality? (my yard is the jack zone, so NO).You actually deserve it and I hope you get it 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, frd said: Pretty wide expanse in the snowfall Can you share this image for entire state of Va? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Say what you want about the GFS, but this is pretty good precip field consistency in our area. Notice that little twist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Impressive 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 That gfs run keeps the stall and tuck idea alive. I’d now like to see it ramp up sooner and deeper. Think we’d all like that. Would probably juice up and temps would probably be less of an issue anywhere west of the low 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Notice that little twist? Maybe we want less precip over Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Is the convection off the Carolina coast hurting us in this gfs run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: Maybe we want less precip over Lake Michigan. Haha no I meant it looks like the precip from the low is being thrown back into our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Multiple models now put me at 15+". Euro obviously was the better model at range, GFS is showing now what Euro showed days ago. We need a good happy hour Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Get outta here with those troll amounts 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Whoa, para finally joins the party. Total tuck and stall. Looks like all snow from DC on north. Great run. HH has been very kind. 13 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I'll take Steven DiMartino's map and run with it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Whoa, para finally joins the party. Total tuck and stall. Looks like all snow from DC ok north. Great run. HH has been very kind. Still a bit too far north with its maximum love (for us Howard County folks), but each of the last 4 cycles has see the GFS para shift southward with the location of its max. Just need one or two more.... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Whoa, para finally joins the party. Total tuck and stall. Looks like all snow from DC ok north. Great run. HH has been very kind. It’s been good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, high risk said: Still a bit too far north with its maximum love (for us Howard County folks), but each of the last 4 cycles has see the GFS para shift southward with the location of its max. Just need one or two more.... It’s REALLY close. @mappy and @psuhoffman are huggin’. Its been very stubbornly north even when the regular GFS started shifting. Seems like a big jump this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Get outta here with those troll amounts 12” DCA16” Dulles10” BWITrace Mappys House . 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I notice that all of the models have convection blowing up off the North Carolina coast Sunday evening. Would love to know how this affects the storm in general terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Sterling slowly cranking the totals up.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Probably the last time where these ensembles are useful, but certainly juicing up the mean.. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, high risk said: Still a bit too far north with its maximum love (for us Howard County folks), but each of the last 4 cycles has see the GFS para shift southward with the location of its max. Just need one or two more.... Give me 2.5-3 more shifts to get some more of that into the metro area too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Question: Why are ensembles no longer useful once we get this close to an event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Question: Why are ensembles no longer useful once we get this close to an event? Because they basically mimic the OP that close in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: Because they basically mimic the OP that close in. That's definitely part of it. Also they're lower resolution and won't be able to show the more subtle features and/or thermals as well as the high-res deterministic counterparts. Ensembles are most useful beyond ~3 days. I might almost argue they're still of some use for a short while more for the second part of this event, with the coastal development, to get an idea of the low center spreads, etc. But we're on that fence of usefulness for that even now, as regional models are in range of it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Question: Why are ensembles no longer useful once we get this close to an event? Most of the source of spread in the ensembles (SREF and HREF not included) comes from tweaks to the initial state, and one must go further into the forecast period before those tweaks start to manifest themselves as significant spread in the outcomes. If we forced spread to develop much faster in the forecast, it's likely that the spread in the longer ranges would be unusably large. 8 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Ok it’s been fun but it’s time for the euro to tuck this biatch right up against the Delmarva and end the suspense. 14 3 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Ok it’s been fun but it’s time for the euro to tuck this biatch right up against the Delmarva and end the suspense. If that happens the forum will probably crash. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Ok it’s been fun but it’s time for the euro to tuck this biatch right up against the Delmarva and end the suspense. Waitwaitwait... @CAPE and I would like at least some snow from the back end, don't be greedy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: If that happens the forum will probably crash. Haven’t had a weenie happy hour in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok it’s been fun but it’s time for the euro to tuck this biatch right up against the Delmarva and end the suspense. You know it’s never that easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro come out around 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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