stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Use small words. I’m slow. I get the local excitement I’ve the run, not a general excitement. Ok I’m done. I’m starting to bore myself with it LOL I deleted and rephrased...slightly. I'm hunting for the CCB stuff. I dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RGEM is 1.6 QPF in DC. Half that out this way. It is still a 6-8 storm out here so I am not complaining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 For the NE part of the forum 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: He is right..but did anyone think this was even close to reality? (my yard is the jack zone, so NO). No. I mean, if you are comparing it against a unicorn, I guess it's worse. I was never one into this being a double digit superstorm, so maybe that clouds my perception a little. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Are you serious? Yes. How is this ... Better than this ... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Pretty positive I may be going to my brothers in EC for this one. I think MoCo, HoCo, NE toward bel air and points NE could potentially cash in from both systems. Gonna wait until tomorrow to ultimately decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Yes. How is this ... lol that run was nuts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: lol that run was nuts though. Ok I’m good with that. But just as a comparison it’s a step back. I place stock only in qpf maps anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Guess we’ll see how the RGEM pans out versus reality. It’s been the most consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: No. I mean, if you are comparing it against a unicorn, I guess it's worse. I was never one into this being a double digit superstorm, so maybe that clouds my perception a little. I agree. But it wouldn’t take much to make it MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Gfs looks very similar to 12z. Major deform action into md and some into dc. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok I’m good with that. But just as a comparison it’s a step back. I place stock only in qpf maps anyway. The fgen banding is going to be the difference maker locally for the second half of the storm. That also creates local adjacent dead zones, so it can be feast/famine within a very short distance. No way to know exactly where that sets up at this juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GFS bringing the goods for the area. Nice stall again. Thermals seem better too 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I like seeing 0.5” QPF through 7p Sunday in DC. I’m ignoring GFS thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Ignore the thermals or not, GFS is certainly wet..... 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: I like seeing 0.5” QPF through 7p Sunday in DC. I’m ignoring GFS thermals. lol yeah because they persistently suck. I literally hate the last 6 runs of the GFS for here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, midatlanticweather said: The precip shield looks lackluster though. I would like to see it more juiced with a 995 off the coast It does. If the storm is that strong the shield would most likely be stronger as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: lol yeah because they persistently suck. I literally hate the last 6 runs of the GFS for here. I’d make a bet that dc doesn’t get to 38° on Monday at 7am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: lol yeah because they persistently suck. I literally hate the last 6 runs of the GFS for here. Yep, it has me raining apparently at 7p Sunday which I don’t buy. I know I’ll mix but GFS is consistently warmer than all other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Ignore the thermals or not, GFS is certainly wet..... Pouring rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GFS looks great to me. Nice stall and pivot of the CCB Deform Band over everyone. Not paying much attention to thermals, especially out this way where we should be all snow for the duration 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDSnowyWxTracker Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The Icon and RGEM had me worried there but the GFS seems to support the tucked west feature still. Saturates the whole area with good qpf. Hugging this run until the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok I’m good with that. But just as a comparison it’s a step back. I place stock only in qpf maps anyway. What I like to see more of is the run to run to run comparisons. You get a better sense how it all matches up. Granted you can only do that inside the window a mode runs but snapshot prognostication cause too much angst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Pouring rain here. Let's just make it simple. We're a little more than a stone's throw from getting a foot on the GFS, and that's with bad thermals. We can put that model to rest for now until tomorrow afternoon. Or never. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: Let's just make it simple. We're a little more than a stone's throw from getting a foot on the GFS, and that's with bad thermals. We can put that model to rest for now until tomorrow afternoon. Or never. The CMC was actually as warm/warmer, and now it is more in line with the Euro. Good sign. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Alright.. So how did we do upstairs. 700mb and 500mb.. Does this have more potential! Are we negative soon enough. Has it improved? And why doesn't the GFS like Winchester much! LOL! I mean that has been a persistent hole! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Pretty wide expanse in the snowfall 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, MDSnowyWxTracker said: The Icon and RGEM had me worried there but the GFS seems to support the tucked west feature still. Saturates the whole area with good qpf. Hugging this run until the next one. I think you guys will be okay out there. Both of those models had a weird low snow hole, but that kind of stuff is not figured out this far out. As was mentioned, a stronger storm would generally yield a larger precipitation field. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, frd said: Pretty wide expanse in the snowfall I’m good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Say what you want about the GFS, but this is pretty good precip field consistency in our area. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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