Amped Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I can’t see a lot of reason at h5 that would have cause the NAM to be that improved. It actually looks more suppressive to our northeast. I’m still looking for the stall and tuck. Nam doesn't need a reason, it just spits out random blobs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, mappy said: Can we not copy/paste watch text? a link will do. Yoda has been allowed to get away w this for like a decade, so that’s why it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, snowfan said: Yoda has been allowed to get away w this for like a decade, so that’s why it happens. Well perhaps I will make sure to change that 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Forecast here is 2-4 Sunday, 1-3 Sunday night. Beyond that- maybe more if it doesn't get too rainy/mixy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I can’t see a lot of reason at h5 that would have cause the NAM to be that improved. It actually looks more suppressive to our northeast. I’m still looking for the stall and tuck. I'm looking at the initial vort that comes around the base of the trough at ~hr 54. That makes more progress in the 18z run than it did at 12z. It is subtle, but might be helping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Amped said: Nam doesn't need a reason, it just spits out random blobs. Well, until someone can explain why it improved, other than it was actually suppressed a bit, then I have to agree. Seems random. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: How does that compare to 12z? Seems like a definite improvement this run, earlier transfer and even slight more negative tilt? Would explain why the backside snow was somewhat improved compared to last run. At 700 the low is more elongated SW to NE, which helps. I can't say what the cause of that is, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I suppose the trough is slightly sharper on the backside. Again I’m just looking for the feature that might stop this thing dead in its tracks, which I hope is right over OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 38 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol, what? NAM at 54 hours pushes the primary down to W NC NAM took a significant move towards the other camp this run. Gets DC better with the deformation zone and is still snowing at 84. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: It’s never final consensus. I mean we’re at the stage where we can start talking about totals, but it’s still early. On our forum someone posted discussion back from 2016. Just 48 hours out the euro didn’t crush the nw Philly burbs and finally as the storm was literally starting it shifted N When I said models are converging on a solution envelop - I meant that they are much closer with their solutions than they were 48 hours ago. Of course, there are still key differences between models (the ones I mentioned), but models are absolutely getting closer, not further apart. That’s all I was saying. 0z tonight should be the beginning of a consensus with the storm arriving 24-36 hours out from there. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 34 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Nest is still drier on the front end. 0.2-0.4" QPF by 00z Monday. it moistened up some though...the 3K sometimes does whacky stuff outside 36 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Interesting read from Mount Holly for the coastal low part of the storm. Kinda sounds like maybe the B word might make an appearance- By early Monday, the surface low intensifying and pivoting off the coast will result in increasing winds and increasing cold air advection as the mean flow turns northeasterly. Impressive wind fields (925 mb winds 40-50+ kts along and south/east of I-95) will develop as a result of the gradient leading to strong winds at the surface. The strongest winds will be along and near the coasts with gusts possibly in excess of 50 mph. Farther inland, wind gusts of 35- 45 mph will likely be common along and south/east of I-95. As a result, a change over to all snow is expected on the back side of the storm, even all the way to the coast, as the system begins departing into Monday night. Light snow may linger into Tuesday morning depending on how progressive the storm is. The exact placement and strength of the low will dictate exactly where the heaviest snow falls. The complexity of this system lies in details of the system transitioning from an overruning precip regime to a mesoscale banding (f-gen) and wrap-around precip regime. The latest 12Z guidance suite has trended the system a bit southward and thus colder, which suggests the greatest potential for f-gen banding across portions of interior southern New Jersey and Delmarva. This axis can certainly change over the coming forecast updates. Snow totals in the banding could potentially exceed the broadbrush ~6-8" storm total snowfall that is currently forecast across much of the urban corridor and south/east away from the coast. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 hr precip 12-18z Monday on the RGEM. Actual numbers irrelevant, but the placement... 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Nice to see watches up along 95. Looks to only be through Sunday night too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Nice to see watches up along 95. Looks to only be through Sunday night too Sounds like they're treating this in two parts (which it basically is) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: 6 hr precip 12-18z Monday on the RGEM. Actual numbers irrelevant, but the placement... Wild. Baltimore city is awfully close to that. 1+ QPF in 6 hours is wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, mappy said: Well perhaps I will make sure to change that Will only post about this once. I like this for future reference. If we revisit the threads on big systems it is fun reading back about what the NWS was showing. We lose that on links over time. Just my 2 cents. - Back to the regular scheduled program! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Sounds like they're treating this in two parts (which it basically is) Agreed. Also think part 2 is a) too uncertain and b) too far out for watches 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Also think part 2 is a) too uncertain and b) too far out for watches Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Will only post about this once. I like this for future reference. If we revisit the threads on big systems it is fun reading back about what the NWS was showing. We lose that on links over time. Just my 2 cents. - Back to the regular scheduled program! That’s a fair point. How about just a pic of the warnings and a pic of the likely and Max snowfall expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The great thing about WAA precip is that it’s reliable. It’s not the same as hoping the northern extent of a low to your south reaches you or the western edge of a coastal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18z RGEM has 9" in 3 hours at the end of the run just across the DE border from @CAPE and @JakkelWx lol I'm hugging hell out of it either way. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Wild. Baltimore city is awfully close to that. 1+ QPF in 6 hours is wild Wouldn't it be hilarious if the bay jackpots... but we'd still be doing quite well here regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This is an interesting map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, baltosquid said: Wouldn't it be hilarious if the bay jackpots... but we'd still be doing quite well here regardless. I would not be sad. At. All. Yeah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: 18z RGEM has 9" in 3 hours at the end of the run just across the DE border from @CAPE and @JakkelWx lol I'm hugging hell out of it either way. Sounds like what Mount Holly was discussing in their latest AFD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I assume no one trusts the ICON thermals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 No winter storm watches for Frederick County?? Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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