Dabuckeyes Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Roger Smith said: GGEM has an exceptional look for this region, 15-25 inch potential with about 24h of continuous moderate to heavy snow potential as the coastal slowly develops in an ideal location, while the primary slumps southeast to eliminate dry slot and transient warmth. GFS is almost as good. ECM appears to be drifting into the same outlook. Based on that, first call from me: widespread 17-23 inch totals, local 25-30. mixing issues confined to central, southern DE, southeast MD, VA s/e of RIC. Sometimes I wonder if you forget to convert mm into inches....but I like your style! 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 850's torch at 60 before the coastal gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: yea weird looking frame for sure Look at the next few frames. This is exactly why you need to be careful with NAM after 48. It's bouncing all over the place trying to transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Nest is still drier on the front end. 0.2-0.4" QPF by 00z Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: 850's torch at 60 before the coastal gets cranking. Yep but at least NAM has already laid down 6-8” over a wide area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 yea NAM after 48 take with grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: 850's torch at 60 before the coastal gets cranking. Actually looking better at that panel than 12z if I'm not mistaken. Also seems to be a tad bit more neg tilted? Interesting panels to come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Maybe some type of feedback thing, I don't know..we need the NCEP guys on this one. Anyway, now has the coastal over Wilmington, NC..lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 tries to pivot back at 72, just have to laugh at it at this point. it tried....should be a better model by 12z tomorrow for what happens during the day monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This is the primary Im talking about Just an artifact of how the model stamps out the lowest pressure even though that's not where the CoC is. That "low" is being printed there likely because of terrain effects and the fact that the primary over the OH/IN/KY border is filling pretty quickly at that point, causing the pressure at the old CoC to be higher. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Some back end loving on the NAM now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Some back end loving on the NAM now probably just noise, but flipping between 18z and 12z, seems to be a little more neutrally tilted. Not a bad trend for us, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 700 frontogenesis - NJ is the winner in the NAM run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Here da perty map. 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The HRRR model looks to have a decent thump of snow before the model stops running so that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 14 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Nest is still drier on the front end. 0.2-0.4" QPF by 00z Monday. Any particular reason it's so dry? That's even less than what it showed for 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Here da perty map. Obviously have to be careful with nam totals but I think that run could've been better and it wasn't done snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 319 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 VAZ048-061-062-064-068-069-509>517-519-521-300430- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.210131T0300Z-210201T0000Z/ Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Amelia-Powhatan- Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover- Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Western King and Queen-Western Essex- Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham, Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Corbin, Burruss Corner, Cedar Fork, Dawn, Earls, Mannboro, Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, Louisa, Mineral, Ashland, Mechanicsville, Bon Air, Midlothian, Chesterfield, Chester, Colonial Heights, Richmond, Sandston, Aylett, Beazley, Biscoe, Henley Fork, Indian Neck, Newtown, Owenton, Saint Stephens Church, and Tappahannock 319 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches possible. In addition, sleet and freezing rain may result in ice accumulations. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central and north central Virginia. * WHEN...From late Saturday evening through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 319 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 MDZ021-022-VAZ075>078-300430- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.210131T1200Z-210201T0600Z/ Dorchester-Wicomico-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland- Lancaster- Including the cities of Cambridge, Salisbury, Sandy Point, Westmoreland, Colonial Beach, Leedstown, Oak Grove, Potomac Beach, Potomac Mills, Naylors Beach, Downing, Emmerton, Ethel, Farnham, Haynesville, Kennard, Lewisetta, Alfonso, Beanes Corner, Brook Vale, Kilmarnock, Lancaster, Lively, and Regina 319 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland and east central and eastern Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. http://www.weather.gov/akq URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 312 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 ...Wintry Mix LIkely Saturday Night through Sunday... .A winter storm will impact the region beginning Saturday night through at least Sunday night. Precipitation will change from snow, to sleet, to freezing rain, and possibly back to snow or rain throughout the event. This wintry mix will make travel difficult and dangerous. NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>044-507-508-300800- /O.NEW.KRNK.WS.A.0002.210131T0300Z-210201T0300Z/ Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes- Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery- Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt- Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania- Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers- Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Danbury, Eden, Yanceyville, Boone, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Amherst, Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg, Appomattox, South Boston, Keysville, Bluefield, Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle 312 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of up to 6 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west central Virginia, north central and northwest North Carolina and southeast West Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. SHH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 310 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 VAZ025-026-036-037-503-504-508-WVZ505-506-300415- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T0300Z-210201T0300Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Nelson-Albemarle-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 310 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Potential for 5 or more inches of snow. * WHERE...Portions of central Virginia, the central Shenandoah Valley, as well as Highland County in Virginia and Pendleton County in West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Saturday evening through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Charleston WV 223 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 WVZ516-518-520-522>526-300330- /O.NEW.KRLX.WS.A.0001.210131T0300Z-210201T1800Z/ Southeast Raleigh-Southeast Fayette-Southeast Nicholas- Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas- Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph- Including the cities of Beckley, Meadow Bridge, Richwood, Snowshoe, Marlinton, Elkins, and Harman 223 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of northeast and southeast West Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Ice accumulations will be mainly confined to the highest ridges, especially along their upper eastern slopes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Any particular reason it's so dry? That's even less than what it showed for 12Z. I don't know. It is better to compare it to the other front-end projections, not the 12km NAM since we know that one is often wet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said: Obviously have to be careful with nam totals but I think that run could've been better and it wasn't done snowing It has the right idea, trying to follow big brother 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Can we not copy/paste watch text? a link will do. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM still certainly looks to stay cold despite a period of sleet around the metro areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, mappy said: Can we not copy/paste watch text? a link will do. Or at least not the full headers. It does sometimes end up being helpful if anybody is every reading through the thread in the future - as those links will die. Though I guess watches/warnings are available via archives too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 700 frontogenesis - NJ is the winner in the NAM run. How does that compare to 12z? Seems like a definite improvement this run, earlier transfer and even slight more negative tilt? Would explain why the backside snow was somewhat improved compared to last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: Or at least not the full headers. It does sometimes end up being helpful if anybody is every reading through the thread in the future - as those links will die. Though I guess watches/warnings are available via archives too. i would hope by now those who post here know where to find watch/warning information. we dont need it copied/pasted. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said: Obviously have to be careful with nam totals but I think that run could've been better and it wasn't done snowing I am thinking the deform band would be more expansive/continuous from NJ southwestward towards DC. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I can’t see a lot of reason at h5 that would have cause the NAM to be that improved. It actually looks more suppressive to our northeast. I’m still looking for the stall and tuck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Hey did anyone notice that the Watch only goes to Sunday night. So it does not even count the Monday stuff apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Hey did anyone notice that the Watch only goes to Sunday night. So it does not even count to Monday stuff apparently. Because the coastal details still need to be worked out. Plus watches only go out so far ahead in time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 WSW for southern half of Mount Holly FA as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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