Weather Will Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 am Mon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 They're covering the envelope because it's on the table. Imo- some sleet is prob a lock for everyone near the cities. Can you name any hybrid coastal tracking under us that produced a legit ice storm? I cant either. Feb 2007? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Deform strengthening through the day Monday. Still tucked just off ocean city at 17z monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: 7am Mon You can see the low forming off OC MD here. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 pm Mon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 am MonWhats your with all the pink over Loudoun lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: They're covering the envelope because it's on the table. Imo- some sleet is prob a lock for everyone near the cities. Can you name any hybrid coastal tracking under us that produced a legit ice storm? I cant either. Feb 2007? That was a sleet bomb tho no? And very very rare honestly. But you're right, that was a coastal gone wrong in incredibly rare fashion. Personally, i love that storm for what it was. I mean our area was a legitimate glacier for days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Less of a dryslot than 00z, but the track and evolution look really similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, AACOUNTYMD said: wow- that isn't awesome for the DC and east. . . we will have sleet but change to back to snow this will be a HUGE event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The track looks really good but the lack of Precip on the Euro concerns me a bit for anyone south of Mason Dixon line....you would think with a strengthening storm pushing south west that it would wrap more precip into Virginia..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 That ccb will be a nail biter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, AACOUNTYMD said: wow- that isn't awesome for the DC and east. . . Are you looking at the Euro from 12z today??? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, WhiteoutMD said: we will have sleet but change to back to snow this will be a HUGE event Agreed! You never get 3 days of straight snow in AA. Take a little sleet...be happy with over 12 inches on this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 It’s almost identical to the 6z euro. best deform panel below. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Looks real close to 06z on the snow maps, basically no difference. Still 10” for DCA which is nothing to shrug off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Good news is it held serve, didn’t go north. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I like the run. 3-6 inches on the front end. Then we take our chances with a low sitting off asseteague for 24+ hours. If the Euro low position is correct I think we'd get some additional snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 988 Low off the delmarva 125 miles offshore and nearly stationary would create bands of snow up and down the Chesapeake one would think.... This is going to be fun to watch 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 WB EURO 12Zprecipitation. Sorry froze up... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Should I still be worried about suppression? I'm totally good with the euro's progression. Surface and mid level low placement def keeps my yard in the game. CCB won't be locked in for nearly 48 hours. Dont run yourself ragged tracking red schlongs. It will move around, grow, and shrink like it has a mind of it's own every 6 hours. 7 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro is 10”+ for DC and points north. Pretty uniform evolution among the guidance back to a close tuck near OCMD and stall or slow movement for 24hrs or so from Monday through early Tuesday. Given that, I think the Ukie and Euro are still fairly dry...not that I think the RGEM is right, but that position for that much time would argue for a moister flow off the ocean. May come down to small differences in the LLJ orientation. We want it with a bit more fetch off the ocean vs fetch off New Jersey and Philly lol. Either way, fun long duration storm. I’m ready. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 You’ve gotta like the trends with the low sitting right off Lewes/OC for 24 hours basically. Based on the UL features today across all the models I’m starting to get pretty optimistic about the CCB portion of the storm. That evolution really starts to bring the huge totals into play and we’ve seen a trend in that direction. Might continue into game time and finally deliver us the jack we’ve been waiting for. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The precip shield seems a bit odd on this run with that track, no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The earlier Sunday stuff kinda looks light to me north of DC though. I don’t love that. But obviously it’s better late Sunday and then the CCB from Baltimore-north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro still looks great for everyone in my humble opinion. I get it though and understand. Schlong....I mean snow envy is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The transfer was clean and very similar to the overnight runs of the Euro. One of the things that would make this better is if the 700mb low were to be about 25-50 miles further south. The deformation axis still gets down efficiently into the northern and northeast portion of the sub-forum with heavy snow for several hours north of I-70 and further NE. Even to the south, there would be high ratio fluff that would fall for hours, slowly accumulating with a final storm total of 8-12" from I-66 to Howard Co. Then 10-15" with local to 20" to the north. It was a great run for @mappy and @psuhoffman as it held serve from previous runs, and was in line with the GFS/CMC. One of the biggest differences from previous runs is it actually upped total precip within the deformation zone, so amounts are a touch higher north of I-70. It was closer to a bigger run for the whole sub-forum so chalk another up to a slight positive trend. 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Should I still be worried about suppression? I'm totally good with the euro's progression. Surface and mid level low placement def keeps my yard in the game. CCB won't be locked in for nearly 48 hours. Dont run yourself ragged tracking red schlongs. It will move around, grow, and shrink like it has a mind of it's own every 6 hours. There's really not much to hate on the Euro. I know my area/climo, you have a better chance at the CCB than I do, but I don't care how I get there, if I get 10 as shown on the Euro, I'm fine. I suspect it will be less. But then again, I never brought into double digits for my backyard, so I'm going to enjoy 5 or 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, LeesburgWx said: The precip shield seems a bit odd on this run with that track, no? As mentioned above with that depiction maybe the Euro will trend wetter during the next 12 to 24 hours for Southern sections, even a bit has significant implications. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Like. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 P.S. nice agreement as well in the WAA precip tomorrow. A couple euro and 3k NAM runs were a bit dry, but now showing 0.4-0.6” of liquid. Nice uniform 3-5”/4-6” type deal that’s going to be falling onto a cold surface. That alone will be really nice. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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