CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: One more tick towards more ns interaction would likely mean a huge hit for everybody, and then suddenly the RGEM wouldn't be such a fantasy anymore... Still a ways to go for eastern areas. GFS still torches the surface here for hours with rain falling. That has not changed over recent runs. We would lose all the snow from the front end, and end up with maybe 2-3 on the ground verbatim. Look at the placement of the 850 mb low on the RGEM compared to the GFS as it exits the coast. Hug the Canadians. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z def has a bigger red horse schlong but still not in the right place. Maybe euro will put the schlong in my yard @Mrs.J ... Edit before this post gets nuked : Not getting my hopes up based on just the RGEM, but this movement a bit south so far in the 12z suite is encouraging. Hell...even if it means we extend the enjoyment of tracking higher-end potential for another 6 hours, then it’s worth it. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 This looks acceptable 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Moisture trend ^ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I stand corrected, I like this better at hour 90 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 27 minutes ago, Ji said: need to work on my stamina Dude, it's 2021. There's an entire shelf of various colored pills at the pharmacy. Some are better than others but you havent lived until you take them all at once 2 1 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Whose got my heady CMC maps? I don't have the good graphics...looks like for QPF, 1" line goes like 30-40 miles south of DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The CMC is a naughtier version of the GFS. A true forum pleaser 9 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 CMC looks impressive. Most will like it, especially the suburbs. Low tuck, stall, bit of mixing then good banding. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, frd said: I stand corrected, I like this better at hour 90 What are the worst surface temps as the coastal is getting going for this area? Low 40s like the GFS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: What are the worst surface temps as the coastal is getting going for this area? Low 40s like the GFS? Worst 2m temps on the CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: What are the worst surface temps as the coastal is getting going for this area? Low 40s like the GFS? I think this is the "worst" panel for you on the eastern shore... looks to have temps around 36-38 degrees (this is for the para-GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Worst 2m temps on the CMC CMC has not been bad here. 36-37 but not for long. GFS is a long duration torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Lol its still snowing at hour 90 on the CMC. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 South Central PA still the bullseye on cmc but the goods are in the northern areas and its really not awful for anyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: What are the worst surface temps as the coastal is getting going for this area? Low 40s like the GFS? 40- ish, I don't buy the temps on the GFS. Your area struggles, but would think temps come crashing down, " hopefully ". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: We need to get some old man sag to the south just a bit more. But if that actually does happen then let’s just have this one time where the GEM scores a 1.00 verification 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Snow finally stops at hr 96 here but I'll take it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, frd said: 40- ish, I don't buy the temps on the GFS. Your area struggles, but would think temps come crashing down, " hopefully ". I was asking about the GFS Para lol. I got the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I wasn't expecting the GEFS mean to look this good 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, H2O said: We need to get some old man sag to the south just a bit more. But if that actually does happen then let’s just have this one time where the GEM scores a 1.00 verification I think we’re still well within the southern range of solutions. We’ll see what the Euro has to say, but we only need a out a 50-mile more souther capture and we’re in the goods. Staying interested, even if not expectant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, H2O said: We need to get some old man sag to the south just a bit more. But if that actually does happen then let’s just have this one time where the GEM scores a 1.00 verification Hugging the crap out of the Canadians. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 We're a little over 12 hours from the onset. For the those in the know, for a storm like this with the forecast long duration and complexities involved, if you had one model at your disposal to analyze and hug, which one would it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 No Euro yet obviously, but I like where we sit. Most of us are comfortably in the zone for decent action from the deform, and some have us right in the thick of it while most models show us just a bit south of ideal. I'd feel real good if I lived between extreme Northern MD and the York area, Mappy, PSU, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Hugging the crap out of the Canadians. Only the RGEM it's 3X as much for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: I think we’re still well within the southern range of solutions. We’ll see what the Euro has to say, but we only need a out a 50-mile more souther capture and we’re in the goods. Staying interested, even if not expectant. Has the trend with the 12Z been well north? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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