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Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD


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Just now, nj2va said:

RGEM is rolling on https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html and is out through 48.  Front end looks good and precip is just changing back to snow through the cities.  Will need to wait for the more thorough maps on TT, etc but I liked what I saw on here at least.

I will hug it until something better comes.  7am change Monday morning with good precip rotating back through.

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t think this is a typical Miller B fail setup. Typically you’ve got a low that’s on a heading south of east that is in the process of transferring as the WAA precip is moving in to a low on the coast that immediately starts moving off to the ne. This low isn’t transferring until after the WAA precip is already through the area to a low almost on the South Carolina border on some models that is crawling. Not typical at all IMO. The reason that I think the WAA is a bit more lean is that the primary is a little further south than it was originally. Look in southern Va. The NAM is spitting out over an inch of WAA precip. It isn’t drying up. It’s just a little south. It’s a trade. Little south early enhances our chances with the main low. Just my thoughts.

I don't know man. This looks pretty much how we get screwed every time in a Miller B to me. Yes. The Eps has targeted our area for 5 days straight at this point. So there is some reason to be optimistic. But I was counting on the waa thump to be the bulk of our snow. This mornings runs seem to be targeting us with an outer band. Similar to what we would see in a Miller A. But I don't know if the coastal is gonna bomb in time for that to happen out here. And counting on that for the bulk of our snow is almost always a losing proposition here. I had low expectations anyways. Because it's a Miller B. 6 inches is a win for us IMO. 

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Icon looks good. Faster and further south development of the coastal. Tucks into the eastern shore with nice banding into many areas by 00z Tue.

I thought 3K looked a tad better. It's not there yet, but it's way better than 12k and hopefully is catching on.

I think we all just need to hug the hell out of the RGEM. It's been consistently delivering for us.

Agree with what PSU said above about the trend with these tends to be later than modeled redevelopment, so you would certainly not prefer to see yourself on the southern edge of the CCB on models. Looks like somewhere between NYC and Philly is likely the spot to be, but let's see what happens. 

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Less than 24 hrs from the onset of snow and the models still have zero clue where the low will be captured. NAM is off Lewes, DE and the RGEM is off Wallops Island. The difference places the CCB from SE PA to Central NJ on the NAM and Philly to DC on the RGEM. Actually pretty remarkable we this kind of discrepancy. Just shows the intricacy of the 85H and 7H lows during the transfer window. 12z Mon through 00z Tuesday is still a very volatile period.


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1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Rgem destroys Baltimore, wiped off the map lol

Just how I like it. Very interesting how the Canadian models have been gung ho about this all of a sudden; wish it were easy to tell why they went this direction the past few runs under the hood. Not gonna hug it because it's literally too perfect, but I hope it has the better of the NAM this time around and we can reach those foot totals. But I'll take 6 if that's all we get. REally interested in where the euro puts the CCB; it's been much more optimistic than the NAM but not as much as the RGEM/GGEM. 

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

I thought 3K looked a tad better. It's not there yet, but it's way better than 12k and hopefully is catching on.

I think we all just need to hug the hell out of the RGEM. It's been consistently delivering for us.

Agree with what PSU said above about the trend with these tends to be later than modeled redevelopment, so you would certainly not prefer to see yourself on the southern edge of the CCB on models. Looks like somewhere between NYC and Philly is likely the spot to be, but let's see what happens. 

In my opinion this is the best run of the Icon for our area yet. Oddly the snow maps aren’t all that impressive. 

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6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Icon looks good. Faster and further south development of the coastal. Tucks into the eastern shore with nice banding into many areas by 00z Tue.

how is that model? I think its the first time ive ever heard you mention it lol

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

In my opinion this is the best run of the Icon for our area yet. Oddly the snow maps aren’t all that impressive. 

Seems like it's got thermal issues, gets pretty much everyone in MD not in the Appalachians into rain for a long period of time.

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