midatlanticweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Truth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, midatlanticweather said: Miller Bs screw issues showing their hand. Dry slot, slow transfer, slow wraparound. NE Maryland pummeled. Don't forget the E wind effing up the lower levels. Mild rainy day here much of Monday. Oh yeah the Euro caved lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Truth I never thought there was enough confluence with this one. The NA vortex is on the move as this system slowly evolves, so we lose the 'suppressive' element and the mechanism to keep the cold feed from the NE as the transfer is unfolding. I knew early on that there would be some rain here, and why I never bought the somewhat suppressed/colder Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: I never thought there was enough confluence with this one. The NA vortex is on the move as this system slowly evolves, so we lose the 'suppressive' element and the mechanism to keep the cold feed from the NE as the transfer is unfolding. I knew early on that there would be some rain here, and why I never bought the somewhat suppressed/colder Euro runs. My uneducated eyes suggested that the other day when psu had his meltdown over the euro suppression. Who knows.. not a warm and fuzzy morning in here that's for sure. Guess we are in scramble/save mode now. Good luck all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: My uneducated eyes suggested that the other day when psu had his meltdown over the euro suppression. Who knows.. not a warm and fuzzy morning in here that's for sure. Guess we are in scramble/save mode now. Good luck all! As usual I sleep through the overnight stuff and evaluate in the AM. And I don't go back and read the thread lol. This is pretty much going as I expected for my yard. I have always hoped the front end would maximize, and had low expectations beyond that. Front end still looks ok, although I think the forecast here of 4-8 through Sunday night might be a bit optimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 FWIW from AKQ for part 1... they went WSWarning for the counties bordering the LWX CWA URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 434 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 VAZ048-061-062-064-069-509>511-302200- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.210131T0300Z-210201T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.210131T0300Z-210201T0600Z/ Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Powhatan-Western Louisa- Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham, Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Corbin, Burruss Corner, Cedar Fork, Dawn, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, Louisa, Mineral, and Ashland 434 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central and north central Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: As usual I sleep through the overnight stuff and evaluate in the AM. And I don't go back and read the thread lol. This is pretty much going as I expected for my yard. I have always hoped the front end would maximize, and had low expectations beyond that. Front end still looks ok, although I think my forecast of 4-8 through Sunday night might be a bit optimistic. My two spots to stay are both in no man's land lol....I may be in the dryslot from start to finish ...that's one way to fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hey a novice question here. But don’t we do much better when the weaker Low develops in the gulf coast region and feeds/redevelops to the primary Low off the NC/VA border? it seems to me that, like our current situation, when the weaker Low comes from the west (farther North if you will) and we have to wait on that L to feed the coastal, we tend to bust more often as it becomes too far North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: My two spots to stay are both in no man's land lol....I may be in the dryslot from start to finish ...that's one way to fail I would choose Sykesville. Better shot to get in on the CCB as it looks now. That part of the storm is still iffy on the guidance, and subject to some changes imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: I would choose Sykesville. Better shot to get in on the CCB as it looks now. That part of the storm is still iffy on the guidance, and subject to some changes imo. Came up last night...hope your area gets some ground coverage... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Hurricanegiants said: Hey a novice question here. But don’t we do much better when the weaker Low develops in the gulf coast region and feeds/redevelops to the primary Low off the NC/VA border? it seems to me that, like our current situation, when the weaker Low comes from the west (farther North if you will) and we have to wait on that L to feed the coastal, we tend to bust more often as it becomes too far North. Not that I am an expert, but yes. Miller Bs that come from the west often reform too far north for our area. Lows out of the Gulf have all the moisture and strength they need without the new low becoming the driver to deliver the precipitation. The thing that can overcome the problem is blocking that can push these normally north of us storms underneath us, far enough to bring a healthy snow. Additionally, the storms get stuck from being able to go north so they stall and pour snow over the region. We see the typical issues with our latitude showing up now because the block to the north was not quite at the strength once modeled. The low is further north before it does the stall. Storm collapse appears more likely other than the front end thump or if you are northern Maryland and North and east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, yoda said: 00z NAM still very juicy and nice with WAA... but big swing and miss after with CCB -- too far north for just about everyone 4-8" and that's it I like that look. Solid snowy day Sunday, comes in hot and heavy. I’m gonna really enjoy daytime snow that sticks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 My two spots to stay are both in no man's land lol....I may be in the dryslot from start to finish ...that's one way to fail Geez just be happy you are seeing some snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: It’s because the h7 low keeps trending N imo. It’s also the trough taking its sweet time to tilt negative. If it ticks earlier or quicker the best lift will reorganize a little father SW and we’re in business on the tail end of the CCB. Unfortunately (like many times) just north of Baltimore and and Phillies area seem to be the sweet spot for deepening and cyclogenisis. I was also a little disappointed over past 2 days on the WAA thump. Those can really deliver here and can hold on sometimes longer than anticipated. That’s not as robust as it was 48 hours ago. For me though.. I’m all good. Sitting on plane at the moment in bound to Jackson Hole. It always snows back in dc when I leave during the winter. 09/10 was a direct result of my 6 week absence. So you’re welcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6z euro gets the ccb a little further south. Maybe we can stop the bleeding a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 CcB looks good into the cities on the 06z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6z euro is 6+ from EZf north. 10+ dc north 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6z euro with a decent uptick in qpf. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Look at that stinger from md up through poconos etc. that ccb needs to chill now though worried about further nw ticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6z euro with a decent uptick in qpf. Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesssssss.....suppression baby! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6z euro gets the ccb a little further south. Maybe we can stop the bleeding a little.Did anything tick south besides the ccb line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 15 minutes ago, LP08 said: 6z euro gets the ccb a little further south. Maybe we can stop the bleeding a little. Did anything tick south besides the ccb line? Not sure what you mean? 850 low looks slower exiting the coast which probably helped the ccb stay south longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pitmd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 At what point would we expect consensus on where the ccb will setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, pitmd said: At what point would we expect consensus on where the ccb will setup? Honestly never lol. Probably the model runs Monday 6z. I’ve storm chased enough storms to know there is never consensus until the storm is on top of us 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 WB 6z EURO 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, pitmd said: At what point would we expect consensus on where the ccb will setup? Real time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I don’t think this is a typical Miller B fail setup. Typically you’ve got a low that’s on a heading south of east that is in the process of transferring as the WAA precip is moving in to a low on the coast that immediately starts moving off to the ne. This low isn’t transferring until after the WAA precip is already through the area to a low almost on the South Carolina border on some models that is crawling. Not typical at all IMO. The reason that I think the WAA is a bit more lean is that the primary is a little further south than it was originally. Look in southern Va. The NAM is spitting out over an inch of WAA precip. It isn’t drying up. It’s just a little south. It’s a trade. Little south early enhances our chances with the main low. Just my thoughts. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6z EURO Acceptable 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Acceptable Very. I think the EURO improved by a smidge comparing the last two runs (today's 0z with yesterday's 12z). JUST one more smidge will solidify a double digit snowfall for mby. Maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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