WEATHER53 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Good luck extrapolating where a deform of a coastal that hasn’t formed yet sets up in 72 hours from current observations. Let me know how that works for you. It already has worked well. Analogs. That’s why I asked snippy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, WEATHER53 said: It already has worked well. Analogs. That’s why I asked snippy. Analogs only give you a basic framework to work from. Nothing more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: It already has worked well. Analogs. That’s why I asked snippy. Every storm is unique. Analogs give you goalposts but yesterday for instance the top 4 analogs included 2 storms that dropped less then 3” on the DC metro and 2 storms that dropped over 20” so you gonna forecast 2-25”? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: Analogs only give you a basic framework to work from. Nothing more You ninjad me again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS look really good for you. N VA Jack. 9 inches at DCA on the 00z EPS mean lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 @jayyy @psuhoffman There are around 11 or 12 monster hits in the EPS tonight FYI ETA: I consider "monster" to be around 16 inches or more 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: There are around 11 or 12 monster hits in the EPS tonight FYI ETA: I consider "monster" to be around 16 inches or more Show us you will 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I’m so sleepy but I want to see more models runs that make me feel better hahaha 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: Show us you will I will take you to Jabba now... er.. show you the EPS members now 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: I will take you to Jabba now... er.. show you the EPS members now Ohhhh, wow. That’s promising to see. Member 26 anybody? Bueller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Ohhhh, wow. That’s promising to see. Member 26 anybody? Bueller? I added the first group just after you quoted my original post which only had the 2nd fyi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, yoda said: I added the first group just after you quoted my original post which only had the 2nd fyi Man. That was a solid EPS to end the night. Anybody else pumped for 6z? Alright. I need to sleep a little bit. Can’t wait to track some more with y’all in a few hours. T minus 30 hours until snow!!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I added the first group just after you quoted my original post which only had the 2nd fyi I was gonna say! Are my tired eyes playing tricks on me?! lol! PS - panel 14 is a thing of beauty. That’s my birthday day. Lock it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 You know things are going well when (a) you wonder if the 4 inch QPF would be all snow or just mostly snow (b) you wonder why that guy in BC always underpredicts snowfalls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 MDZ001-VAZ025>027-029-036>039-503-504-507-508-WVZ055-501>503-505- 506-301600- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T0300Z-210201T0300Z/ Garrett-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Nelson-Albemarle- Greene-Madison-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hardy- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 MDZ006-008-011-507-508-301600- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T1100Z-210201T1100Z/ Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford- 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Northern Baltimore, Cecil, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore and Northwest Harford Counties. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 DCZ001-MDZ003>005-013-014-016>018-501>506-VAZ028-030-031-040- 050>057-501-502-505-506-WVZ050>053-504-301600- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T0600Z-210201T0600Z/ District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Frederick VA-Warren- Clarke-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Eastern Mineral- 257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 06z 3km NAM juiced up compared to its 00z run by a good amount for the WAA part... up to 0.45" to 0.50" QPF by hour 45 when DCA mixes... 3-6" of snow... 4-8 on Kuchera 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 00z NAM still very juicy and nice with WAA... but big swing and miss after with CCB -- too far north for just about everyone 4-8" and that's it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Meanwhile... we hope... 06z NBM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 LWX morning disco on part 1 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 350 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build overhead today. Low pressure will approach from the west Sunday and transfer off the coast on Monday. High pressure will build back in by the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will build overhead today. Dry conditions expected with plenty of sunshine through much of the day. High clouds will begin to increase ahead of the next low pressure system that will arrive from the west later today into tonight. Highs will top out in the 30s to near 40. The low pressure system will move along the Ohio Valley tonight. A surge of warm advection aloft in advance of the surface low/closed upper low tracking into the Ohio Valley will start to overspread the area from southwest to northeast over the course of the nighttime hours. Snow should move into the central Shenandoah Valley and western parts of the Virginia Piedmont around midnight, before onward into D.C. around or just after daybreak on Sunday. A steady period of snow is expected across the entire area Sunday in association with this push of warm advection. A general 4-6 inches of snow is expected across the area with this round of snow. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for most of the forecast area. Once we have observed the latest guidance and tweaked our forecast to account for snow accumulations and any ice accumulation, we will decide which zones would be the most impacted by snow and/or ice, then we will issue advisories or warnings during this upcoming dayshift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 DCA just missed out on the epic CCB on 06z RGEM... just off to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3.4 liquid for philly that has to be some mix setting up right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, yoda said: dang saw this as soon as i posted about philly and having so much liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 33 minutes ago, yoda said: That's a paddle smacking NE MD, SE PA, a smidge of DE, and a bit of NJ. Or a spatula, if you'd prefer. Pancakes for breakfast! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I remember worrying about suppression. Not the problem. Slipping away to the north is the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Have to keep an eye on the location and timing of the area of heavier precip that develops to the west of the 850 low as it tracks off the coast. This is close over here with p-type as the cold is just wrapping back in at this time. Verbatim probably heavy rain/sleet flipping to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Miller Bs screw issues showing their hand. Dry slot, slow transfer, slow wraparound. NE Maryland pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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