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Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD


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  On 1/30/2021 at 4:18 AM, Amped said:

CMC tucks us long time this run.

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It's the best case scenario, especially for DC/I-66 and points south. There definitely has been a northward tick with the 00z runs. Hopefully it's just a blip and when the Euro comes out it'll hold serve. The 00z suite is the first set of models that has all of the energy well onshore and sample by the RAOB network so we should see the guidance get a better handle on things quickly.

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  On 1/30/2021 at 3:58 AM, psuhoffman said:

12 hours ago that vort over New England was trending south. It has since relaxed some. But in a way suppressed is still an issue just not in an easily apparent way. But the fail option is to see the WAA wave suppressed...then have the coastal develop too late like the NAM. That ends up looking like the problem was a north trend because the coastal wraps snow back in to our north but in reality suppression initially helped that happen.  We need a storm to develop a healthy circulation and amp up quicker down here compared to the other northeast cities further up the coast.  

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So...are you saying that we can benefit from even more relaxation of that vort over NE? So in a way it's like the opposite...suppression issues show up as "north" and not south? In other words, a further relaxation of that vort would produce a more of a "south"--in a good way--solution?

*head spinning*

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  On 1/30/2021 at 4:20 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

It's the best case scenario, especially for DC/I-66 and points south. There definitely has been a northward tick with the 00z runs. Hopefully it's just a blip and when the Euro comes out it'll hold serve. The 00z suite is the first set of models that has all of the energy well onshore and sample by the RAOB network so we should see the guidance get a better handle on things quickly.

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CMC is best case scenario for everyone. Form VA to ME just about. It's the only model showing a HECS.

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  On 1/30/2021 at 4:21 AM, Always in Zugzwang said:

A little late here on this question, but any indication how that snow is "distributed" between the initial WAA and CCB parts?  Just curious.

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It’s hard to pin for everyone because the rain snow line is moving north then sinking south. But for the DC metro and northern VA this is all snow from the WAA 

78AAA969-5C3B-45BB-AD6E-B275A55FD08F.thumb.png.02fbc97c7121aff54ec859fb0096e425.png
and this is snow from the CCB

4DEE4D3C-2CFC-490D-B350-96EAA68918D2.thumb.png.b94c9f99dbf03a98971564f4a8326343.png
so far tonight my only qualm for N VA would be the coastal capture is happening a little slower and that risks shifting the CCB northeast of the area if it develops too late.  But that’s always a risk with a miller b. The DC split. 

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  On 1/30/2021 at 4:27 AM, clskinsfan said:

CMC cut back on the waa this run. 3 or 4 inches for everyone. 

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Would that be the first sign that things are going wrong?  I remember a storm like this once about 10 years ago where we were supposed to get a foot and the next morning I had two inches and regular citizens in Philly were digging snow out of the stadium in order to have a football game.  

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  On 1/30/2021 at 4:30 AM, blueberryfaygo said:

Would that be the first sign that things are going wrong?  I remember a storm like this once about 10 years ago where we were supposed to get a foot and the next morning I had two inches and regular citizens in Philly were digging snow out of the stadium in order to have a football game.  

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The CMC just dumped over a foot of snow in your neighborhood.  There may be reasons to worry, but the CMC isn’t one of them.  

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  On 1/30/2021 at 4:31 AM, jaydreb said:

NE MD pummelled! 

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what worries me is I keep seeing that southern NJ jackpot... back in December a storm pivoted over the NE like this one.. and some people saw all time records.. the way this thing tucks and pivots tells me that their is going to be a isolated max potential area.

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  On 1/30/2021 at 4:29 AM, psuhoffman said:

It’s hard to pin for everyone because the rain snow line is moving north then sinking south. But for the DC metro and northern VA this is all snow from the WAA 

78AAA969-5C3B-45BB-AD6E-B275A55FD08F.thumb.png.02fbc97c7121aff54ec859fb0096e425.png
and this is snow from the CCB

4DEE4D3C-2CFC-490D-B350-96EAA68918D2.thumb.png.b94c9f99dbf03a98971564f4a8326343.png
so far tonight my only qualm for N VA would be the coastal capture is happening a little slower and that risks shifting the CCB northeast of the area if it develops too late.  But that’s always a risk with a miller b. The DC split. 

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Thanks, PSU, that's an excellent and clear delineation there.

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  On 1/30/2021 at 4:30 AM, blueberryfaygo said:

Would that be the first sign that things are going wrong?  I remember a storm like this once about 10 years ago where we were supposed to get a foot and the next morning I had two inches and regular citizens in Philly were digging snow out of the stadium in order to have a football game.  

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Depends where you live. I certainly dont like the trend at 0Z for my area. But up where you are you should be pretty happy. I had pretty low expectations for my area anyways. We always get screwed in Miller B's. ALWAYS. I was hoping to snag 6 inches with the waa. But that has trended down tonight as well. 

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