Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 1:07 AM, Yeoman said: more neutral tilt.. better Expand Does that help to keep the storm closer to the coast? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 1:28 AM, Wonderdog said: Does that help to keep the storm closer to the coast? Expand You see that greater than 18 inch Euro probability map posted above? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Dark sky forecast calls for 3-6” Sunday and 4-7” Monday. Wouldn’t that be nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 CWG doing a live video chat on their facebook page.. Wes is about to start his presentation 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 1:14 AM, Cobalt said: Check this out. Definite west cluster that are likely a clobbering with the costal. Would explain why the 12 inch probabilities went up a fair bit (for reference, the larger L is the op Euro, the rest are the EPS low pressure cluster) I'd imagine the numbers PSU referenced for the ratio of SE to tucked has drastically changed. Expand Seems like a pretty wide spread at such short range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 1:09 AM, LP08 said: Best run yet. Expand Even down here in RIC we’ll take that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 1:37 AM, PCT_ATC said: CWG doing a live video chat on their facebook page.. Wes is about to start his presentation Expand Is Bob Ryan the camera man? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 1:41 AM, RVASnowLover said: Even down here in RIC we’ll take that Expand That’s a NOVA special with a side of fries. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 1:08 AM, psuhoffman said: BTW I think you can still do pretty good with a more amped solution...I think a decent front end is likely and then so long as the storm exits more east then north (likely given the blocking) that deform axis will be shifting southeast as it exits and can clip you on the way out. March 2018 was a good example of that. Expand It will be interesting to see how the mesos roll as we get more into their wheelhouse. The Fgen banding area will make all the difference for some. As long as the front end stays good and there isn't too much warming, a modest back end is fine. GFS is the one model that still annoys me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 1:46 AM, CAPE said: GFS is the one model that still annoys me. Expand It often does that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Pretty uniform maps. Nice to have almost everyone in the same spot for an event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I’m headed out to snowshoe, WV tomorrow for this event. Hopefully I’ll see 12+ for the event total. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 1:55 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Pretty uniform maps. Nice to have almost everyone in the same spot for an event. Expand Your top map is outdated 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Wes just said on the CWG stream that he doesn't believe the GFS thermals - thinks Euro is right. Just to ease concerns. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 1:41 AM, RVASnowLover said: Even down here in RIC we’ll take that Expand 12/9/18 let’s go!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 1:59 AM, caviman2201 said: Wes just said on the CWG stream that he doesn't believe the GFS thermals - thinks Euro is right. Just to ease concerns. Expand Can I get GFS precip with euro thermals? TIA! Yes, precip and thermal profiles go hand in hand often... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 1:23 AM, ChesterfieldVa80 said: Why are the ensembles so much snowier down here in the Richmond area? Is this skewed by an outlier or too? Expand Euro/eps has been the coldest global leading in. I havent looked at nearly as many maps as others around here with this storm but I do know the euro suite is the most optimistic with cold. You're def getting plenty of precip. Just need CAD to flex. You know your climo better than me tho. That always matters in the midatlantic regardless of what models say 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 LWX AFD Update at 9:00 PM .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 9:00 PM UPDATE: No change to the previous forecast at this time, but some increase in expected snow totals may be necessary in the next shift. Model guidance continue to increase in confidence of 4-7" for most areas along and west of I-95, with the higher end of that starting to look a little more likely. Would like to see another round of guidance before bumping things up just yet. For now, see the previous update and discusison for more detailed thoughts. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 From Mt Holly, includes Eastern Shore, surprisingly even. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 2:10 AM, SnowenOutThere said: Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. HRRR is trash that far out. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 2:10 AM, SnowenOutThere said: Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. Expand I think you should avoid paying too much attention to the HRRR at 48h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 2:10 AM, SnowenOutThere said: Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. Expand Most people around here only use the HRRR right before the onset. Late tomorrow night and Sunday morning it will get discussed more. It’s not generally thought to be too useful past like 12 hours or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 WAA looks solid on the 0Z NAM .6-.7 for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12km NAM holding serve with a very wet front side. 6” WAA thump. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 We Take! 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 2:10 AM, SnowenOutThere said: Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. Expand I never looks HRRR or CAMS beyond 24 hours before an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 2:12 AM, DCAlexandria said: HRRR is trash that far out . Expand The caveat is that after a few runs of the 3km NAM being dry, I’m not sad to see 0.6” qpf on the other mesoscale model prior to 00z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 2:24 AM, MN Transplant said: The caveat is that after a few runs of the 3km NAM being dry, I’m not sad to see 0.6” qpf on the other mesoscale model prior to 00z. Expand And on queue, the NAM 3km is very dry on the front side again. 0.2” QPF by 00z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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