Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The 18z Euro ens mean is pretty filthy...10:1 17 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: That's a pretty significant shift on the EPS 06z vs 18z Good shift yes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, yoda said: Good shift yes? more neutral tilt.. better 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: Surprised the snow map looked that good here given the lack of precip for several hours, with the banding just to the NW. That has been the trend though the last 2-3 runs, as I told you it would be last night when you were sure this was on the road to suppression lol. BTW I think you can still do pretty good with a more amped solution...I think a decent front end is likely and then so long as the storm exits more east then north (likely given the blocking) that deform axis will be shifting southeast as it exits and can clip you on the way out. March 2018 was a good example of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Best run yet. 6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Hurts when it happens! In 1/25/2000, I got stuck between heavy bands to the east and west, and even had sun peaking out. I measured about 7" while areas all around got double or more. Ironically the same happened to me where I was up in PA that year. Got about 8" but all around got like 10-12...was stuck between meso bands all afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Best run yet. Upped the 12" probabilities for most of the subforum too. And obviously given the low resolution this won't pick up on the usual areas that get death banded 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: The 18z Euro ens mean is pretty filthy...10:1 I can't decide if it's filthy or Stimpy after hitting the top shelf indica. 6 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I can't decide if it's filthy or Stimpy after hitting the top shelf indica. Check this out. Definite west cluster that are likely a clobbering with the costal. Would explain why the 12 inch probabilities went up a fair bit (for reference, the larger L is the op Euro, the rest are the EPS low pressure cluster) I'd imagine the numbers PSU referenced for the ratio of SE to tucked has drastically changed. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Nothing not to like about the EPS. More amplified less positively tilted trough. H5 cuts off in a better spot. Low is less progressive after being captured leading to the bump up in the snow mean. Most significantly a BIG expansion and ramping up of the precip shield across the members. Snowfall expanded on BOTH sides of the max stripe! That is a good sign heading into the home stretch. 23 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Wondering if we see this really amp up going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That hole is an area that got unlucky twice. Ended up between bands during the WAA then again during the deform. Subsidence can be cruel. Btw euro started to pick up on that duel banding structure on the NW side that happens EVERY time. There will always, in EVERY storm, be unlucky little pockets like that. I actually ended up in one in 2016. I got 28”, and no I’m not complaining one bit I’m not crazy, but all around me got 30-36”. I ended up in a couple dead zones between banding and oh well. But no model can get either the meso banding or the associated screw zones between them right from 24 hours let alone 72 so I wouldn’t sweat it. That’s something for the now cast. The 1/25/2000 did that to me in Sterling. Huge long lull over top of me with heavy stuff west and east of there! Edit: Ninjad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Wondering if we see this really amp up going forward. The Euro set the bar a few days ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 13 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I can't decide if it's filthy or Stimpy after hitting the top shelf indica. Why are the ensembles so much snowier down here in the Richmond area? Is this skewed by an outlier or too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, Yeoman said: more neutral tilt.. better Does that help to keep the storm closer to the coast? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Does that help to keep the storm closer to the coast? You see that greater than 18 inch Euro probability map posted above? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Dark sky forecast calls for 3-6” Sunday and 4-7” Monday. Wouldn’t that be nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 CWG doing a live video chat on their facebook page.. Wes is about to start his presentation 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 21 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Check this out. Definite west cluster that are likely a clobbering with the costal. Would explain why the 12 inch probabilities went up a fair bit (for reference, the larger L is the op Euro, the rest are the EPS low pressure cluster) I'd imagine the numbers PSU referenced for the ratio of SE to tucked has drastically changed. Seems like a pretty wide spread at such short range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 30 minutes ago, LP08 said: Best run yet. Even down here in RIC we’ll take that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: CWG doing a live video chat on their facebook page.. Wes is about to start his presentation Is Bob Ryan the camera man? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, RVASnowLover said: Even down here in RIC we’ll take that That’s a NOVA special with a side of fries. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: BTW I think you can still do pretty good with a more amped solution...I think a decent front end is likely and then so long as the storm exits more east then north (likely given the blocking) that deform axis will be shifting southeast as it exits and can clip you on the way out. March 2018 was a good example of that. It will be interesting to see how the mesos roll as we get more into their wheelhouse. The Fgen banding area will make all the difference for some. As long as the front end stays good and there isn't too much warming, a modest back end is fine. GFS is the one model that still annoys me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: GFS is the one model that still annoys me. It often does that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Pretty uniform maps. Nice to have almost everyone in the same spot for an event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I’m headed out to snowshoe, WV tomorrow for this event. Hopefully I’ll see 12+ for the event total. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Pretty uniform maps. Nice to have almost everyone in the same spot for an event. Your top map is outdated 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Wes just said on the CWG stream that he doesn't believe the GFS thermals - thinks Euro is right. Just to ease concerns. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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