WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Is the convection off the Carolina coast hurting us in this gfs run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 10:14 PM, MN Transplant said: Maybe we want less precip over Lake Michigan. Expand Haha no I meant it looks like the precip from the low is being thrown back into our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Multiple models now put me at 15+". Euro obviously was the better model at range, GFS is showing now what Euro showed days ago. We need a good happy hour Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Get outta here with those troll amounts 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Whoa, para finally joins the party. Total tuck and stall. Looks like all snow from DC on north. Great run. HH has been very kind. 13 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I'll take Steven DiMartino's map and run with it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 10:21 PM, WxUSAF said: Whoa, para finally joins the party. Total tuck and stall. Looks like all snow from DC ok north. Great run. HH has been very kind. Expand Still a bit too far north with its maximum love (for us Howard County folks), but each of the last 4 cycles has see the GFS para shift southward with the location of its max. Just need one or two more.... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 10:21 PM, WxUSAF said: Whoa, para finally joins the party. Total tuck and stall. Looks like all snow from DC ok north. Great run. HH has been very kind. Expand It’s been good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 10:27 PM, high risk said: Still a bit too far north with its maximum love (for us Howard County folks), but each of the last 4 cycles has see the GFS para shift southward with the location of its max. Just need one or two more.... Expand It’s REALLY close. @mappy and @psuhoffman are huggin’. Its been very stubbornly north even when the regular GFS started shifting. Seems like a big jump this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 10:20 PM, mappy said: Get outta here with those troll amounts 12” DCA16” Dulles10” BWITrace Mappys House . 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I notice that all of the models have convection blowing up off the North Carolina coast Sunday evening. Would love to know how this affects the storm in general terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Sterling slowly cranking the totals up.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Probably the last time where these ensembles are useful, but certainly juicing up the mean.. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 10:27 PM, high risk said: Still a bit too far north with its maximum love (for us Howard County folks), but each of the last 4 cycles has see the GFS para shift southward with the location of its max. Just need one or two more.... Expand Give me 2.5-3 more shifts to get some more of that into the metro area too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Question: Why are ensembles no longer useful once we get this close to an event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 10:43 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Question: Why are ensembles no longer useful once we get this close to an event? Expand Because they basically mimic the OP that close in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 10:44 PM, osfan24 said: Because they basically mimic the OP that close in. Expand That's definitely part of it. Also they're lower resolution and won't be able to show the more subtle features and/or thermals as well as the high-res deterministic counterparts. Ensembles are most useful beyond ~3 days. I might almost argue they're still of some use for a short while more for the second part of this event, with the coastal development, to get an idea of the low center spreads, etc. But we're on that fence of usefulness for that even now, as regional models are in range of it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 10:43 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Question: Why are ensembles no longer useful once we get this close to an event? Expand Most of the source of spread in the ensembles (SREF and HREF not included) comes from tweaks to the initial state, and one must go further into the forecast period before those tweaks start to manifest themselves as significant spread in the outcomes. If we forced spread to develop much faster in the forecast, it's likely that the spread in the longer ranges would be unusably large. 8 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Ok it’s been fun but it’s time for the euro to tuck this biatch right up against the Delmarva and end the suspense. 14 3 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 10:53 PM, psuhoffman said: Ok it’s been fun but it’s time for the euro to tuck this biatch right up against the Delmarva and end the suspense. Expand If that happens the forum will probably crash. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 10:53 PM, psuhoffman said: Ok it’s been fun but it’s time for the euro to tuck this biatch right up against the Delmarva and end the suspense. Expand Waitwaitwait... @CAPE and I would like at least some snow from the back end, don't be greedy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 10:56 PM, Eskimo Joe said: If that happens the forum will probably crash. Expand Haven’t had a weenie happy hour in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 10:53 PM, psuhoffman said: Ok it’s been fun but it’s time for the euro to tuck this biatch right up against the Delmarva and end the suspense. Expand You know it’s never that easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro come out around 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 10:57 PM, B-Paq said: Waitwaitwait... @CAPE and I would like at least some snow from the back end, don't be greedy! Expand If it slides ENE from there you will. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 11:04 PM, Imgoinhungry said: 1:00am Expand Happy hour Euro is 7 I believe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 All the players are onshore now, so we should see things start to tighten up. I would still carry some weight on the ensembles through 12z tomorrow for what the coastal does. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 10:30 PM, WxUSAF said: It’s REALLY close. @mappy and @psuhoffman are huggin’. Its been very stubbornly north even when the regular GFS started shifting. Seems like a big jump this run. Expand I’m happy with whatever falls On 1/29/2021 at 10:30 PM, DCAlexandria said: 12” DCA 16” Dulles 10” BWI Trace Mappys House . Expand lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted January 29, 2021 Sup peeps. I'm new here. How much for Rockville? 103 9 22 1 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 11:21 PM, Bob Chill said: Sup peeps. I'm new here. How much for Rockville? Expand Shut up. This really you?! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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