MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The GFS is a bit on an island with the 00z to 12z Monday period. Most of the models have a pause or lighter precip. The GFS has significant (0.5"-1.0") precip during that timeframe. The struggle is of course that this is the most likely period to have thermal troubles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This is the Canadian, correct? Not sure if this is the CMC or RGEM but it looks pretty favorable with the costal, banding essentially pivots over the DMV area and points eastward. 6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Maybe I'm just naïve, but it seems concerning that we have such big differences with the major models on that feature over New England basically 48 hours from its impact on this storm. Seems like pretty big disparity for a feature so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, H2O said: How often does a piece break off at 700 and expand like that? It was a clean 700mb low pivot under the area on a transfer. The low intensified over near the coast, allowing for the 700mb jet to enhance overhead. This is a classic maturing phase of a cyclone prior to full occlusion. This is also one of the reasons why the surface low sits off OCMD and just doesn't move. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: This is the Canadian, correct? Not sure if this is the CMC or RGEM but it looks pretty favorable with the costal, banding essentially pivots over the DMV area and points eastward. Yeah hours 0-48 are the RGEM on that site and then past it, is the GGEM I think. That is a really nice panel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Yeah hours 0-48 are the RGEM on that site and then past it, is the GGEM I think. That is a really nice panel. Do you have the link to that? I know it was posted yesterday but can't find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Do you have the link to that? I know it was posted yesterday but can't find it. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html I found it here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, paxpatriot said: Maybe I'm just naïve, but it seems concerning that we have such big differences with the major models on that feature over New England basically 48 hours from its impact on this storm. Seems like pretty big disparity for a feature so close. Yes, for sure everyone is concerned. That’s the way we roll in the mid-Atl. Mods basically had to close the last thread because of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The GFS is a bit on an island with the 00z to 12z Monday period. Most of the models have a pause or lighter precip. The GFS has significant (0.5"-1.0") precip during that timeframe. The struggle is of course that this is the most likely period to have thermal troubles. I'm curious looking at the run, but it almost looks like some kind of inverted trough feature on the GFS right across central MD. This actually isn't the first model to show this feature either. I wonder if there could be something sneaky like this in the cards that won't be solved fully until closer in? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yeah hours 0-48 are the RGEM on that site and then past it, is the GGEM I think. That is a really nice panel. Hopefully the good maps come out because it went back to the idea of a 50 hour storm. Good thump, some mix in the middle, and than the CCB just keeps reforming over DCA/MD. Pummeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: It looks like the GFS finally caved to the Euro but still has a mixing problem this combined with the latest RGEM and Icon models really means that this storm is starting to makes sense and take shape. we heard you the first time 2 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RGEM has over 2 feet in Central Delaware, with the Def band more or less stalled overhead lol... Do any pro mets think this scenario is plausible? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Para GFS (v16) is drier and colder than the OP. 0.75-1" QPF total. Kucera 6" near DC, closer to a foot by the PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 i dont like outliers--even if its the european and especially when we are at short range. So lets see what the european does today but so far ICON/GFS/Canadiens are giving us back end love 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GGEM says monday PM is fun 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 CMC is out to 84 on pivotal, 10"+ area wide and the MOCO-HOCO deathband has put over a foot down there, and it is still snowing! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Canadian has the typical JYO to BWI jackpot zone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I think this will be a storm where in the end it will come down to the costal low and where the banding features set up. Unfortunately we won't know this until Sunday when the storm is already occurring so for now looking at snowfall maps is not that helpful. Just take the RGEM it sets up the band right over Fairfax and DC and dumps over a foot! The 00z run had it miss us and we got a still respectable 5-10 inches of snow. We just won't know for a while what happens. What I am saying is don't trust the banding this far out wait till Saturday or Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, TL97 said: CMC is out to 84 on pivotal, 10"+ area wide and the MOCO-HOCO deathband has put over a foot down there, and it is still snowing! Certainly good news considering that 0z CMC kinda went off the rails 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 With the morning models trending toward a more tucked and stuck solution we could slowly be moving toward that outcome. Which would be great IMO. Of course, that’s hypothetical. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Certainly good news considering that 0z CMC kinda went off the rails 22 for you 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Cmc is litterally all over the place 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 22 for you Subtract 12 from that and that's probably my upper limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I made a post last night about the cmc and a mysterious blob of Max vorticity over pa that pulled the H5 Vort north. 0z had it, 12z does not. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 In truth it’s gonna be near impossible to know where that band sets up, if it does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Ravens94 said: Cmc is litterally all over the place Did this thing seriously just give the I-95 corridor 20 inches? Lol Probably the wackiest model run we've seen to date! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Yeah so I guess the consensus is the CMC can't be trusted unfortunately, the EC solution where the band sets up further SE seems more plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 @psuhoffman@stormtracker--I am getting alot of March 2001 vibes. We may not know whats going to happen till Sunday morning lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Para GFS (v16) is drier and colder than the OP. 0.75-1" QPF total. Kucera 6" near DC, closer to a foot by the PA border. I was looking at the UL evolution and I really don't understand why it did what it did. It wasn't THAT far off from the GFS, but it was way off with the CCB comparatively. GFS has a slightly better 7H presentation, but it wasn't super different. Not sure. Wasn't a terrible run, but I think it could've looked a little better at the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Guys we can't trust banding features until late Saturday they will continue to jump around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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