WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 If that transfer would just happen quicker we’d be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, frd said: From HM, lower part Anthony is 100% spot on. The RGEM was a great example where it wasn't textbook in terms of 5H propagation and overall axis still slightly positive tilted, but it still delivered. The atmospheric dynamic is prone to subtle changes, so for a situation where transfers of energy are in question, the fluidity of everything will have significant feedback concerns in downstream trough/ridge orientations and that in turn translates immediately to the surface. Hopefully some of the questions about feature placement and strength get answered soon, but I have a feeling we might see subtle differences up to the 11th hour since the sensitivity of the setup is that privy to change. Get the whiskey on hand 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GFS looks a lot like the ICON in all honesty. CCB parks over NOVA/DC for hours on end. Snows through Tuesday morning. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Wow what a good run overall though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GFS looks great! ICON like and RGeM. Please God let the Euro follow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: No need for a super in depth response since that would be best left to its own thread, but do people more in the know think the huge issues with GFS thermals are to some extent brough about by certain overcorrections from its experimental days when the FV3 was cranking out nonsensical cold solutions storm after storm? It's a legit question, but it seems to be more of a function of the GFS PBL scheme, as the model has had these issues for a long time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: If that transfer would just happen quicker we’d be in business. I mean, IMO, we are in business on the last few models. 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: The good news is that the 12z GFS is more RGEM like with that piece. The thermals remain a problem, but, GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If that transfer would just happen quicker we’d be in business. It will. It is clearly trending that direction. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: I mean, IMO, we are in business on the last few models. 100% agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Please GFS (Wb) 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GFS model will have the north and west crew off the ledge for now if they still believe in the GFS as a model lol..decent CCB coastal during day on Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Adjust for GFS’ terrible ability at thermals (not saying we don’t mix at all) but I don’t think we mix to the extent GFS is showing in that deform. Much better coastal for the area. Yessir! Looks to be quite generous with the QPF from the coastal with most of our sub forum with an an inch or more total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Amazing how far apart the GFS and Euro are this close the the event. Also amazing how Euro and GFS have basically changed places in terms of snowy vs. non-snowy (for some areas). 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z GFS has 996 low off Ocean City at 06z Tuesday. That's what we want to see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GFS with some 1'+ totals north and west of the cities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 That GFS 84hr panel. Pummeling of white asteroids it would seem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: 12z GFS has 996 low off Ocean City at 06z Tuesday. That's what we want to see. It sits there for like 12 hours.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 10 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Yeah, GFS is surprising good and looks like it has finally grabbed on to the original idea of WAA then CCB beat down 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Man the GFS is nice. Everyone wins...even Delmarva get a solid warning event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I think that the GFS finally is caving to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: How often does a piece break off at 700 and expand like that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Man the GFS is nice. Everyone wins...even Delmarva get a solid warning event. Since we are closer the the event, even though complexities remain, do you regard the GFS modeling of the event as plausible, or do you weigh more towards the EPS/Euro , or use a blend of the Euro, GFS, Canadian, etc. if you were say going to word this in the afternoon AFD from Mount Holly. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 For reference, the January snow climo: IAD 7.3" BWI 6.8" DCA 5.6" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The 700-mb temperature gradient is definitely tighter on the 12z GFS compared to 06z, leading to greater frontogenetic forcing over the I-95 region. The model is also a bit colder, but its forecast boundary layer is still warm enough for rain for a time near and SE of I-95. If the stronger dynamics verify, I think the boundary layer could be less of an issue, especially given the favorable surface high position in SE Canada. Of course we could have those issues if the models end up developing the surface cyclone farther northwest. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I wouldnt dismiss the GFS...for its all its faults in the mid range...its a pretty good model within 60. And now with the european being the outlier....i wouldnt totally buy into the european. This is different from being 120 hours out 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: For reference, the January snow climo: IAD 7.3" BWI 6.8" DCA 5.6" Surprised DCA is at 5.6 the way they measure over there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It's starting to look like the GFS is finally caving to the Euro solution with the better costal low. Now all we need to get rid of is the mixing problem near I-95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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