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Feb 3rd - 5th Potential strong stm threat


Brian D
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15 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

If this verifies, would qualify for another WSW for part of the LOT area. It would be the 3rd in 8-9 days. Wonder if that’s ever happened before.

Maybe 2007-08 had some runs like this particularly NW burbs into WI. Or late 70s winters perhaps

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I'm having trouble buying that this would be a several inch snow here, like what the Canadian models are suggesting.  It's not a bitterly cold antecedent airmass and that surface low is deepening pretty quickly and tracking overhead in a best case scenario or more likely northwest.  Given the above, I don't know how we're going to escape boundary layer temp issues around here during the day on Thursday.  The back side does look decent though for a burst of fairly intense conditions with the winds and snow.

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I'm having trouble buying that this would be a several inch snow here, like what the Canadian models are suggesting.  It's not a bitterly cold antecedent airmass and that surface low is deepening pretty quickly and tracking overhead in a best case scenario or more likely northwest.  Given the above, I don't know how we're going to escape boundary layer temp issues around here during the day on Thursday.  The back side does look decent though for a burst of fairly intense conditions with the winds and snow.

The GEM makes sense when you look under the hood.

SLP doesn’t really deepen until it’s passing NE of the area. WAA doesn’t take off until east as well, and 850’s are actually out of the west of a period of time.

On the flip side, the GFS has good snows further south for a different reason. It has the SLP strengthening sooner, with more WAA sooner and further west. However, the further south track helps bring the good snows further south.


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28 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm having trouble buying that this would be a several inch snow here, like what the Canadian models are suggesting.  It's not a bitterly cold antecedent airmass and that surface low is deepening pretty quickly and tracking overhead in a best case scenario or more likely northwest.  Given the above, I don't know how we're going to escape boundary layer temp issues around here during the day on Thursday.  The back side does look decent though for a burst of fairly intense conditions with the winds and snow.

We do have a wildcard. Its Feb now.  MSF's (michsnowfreak) south east trend to storms has been money the last 3 winters.  

Ride it.

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