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Feb 3rd - 5th Potential strong stm threat


Brian D
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IWX's ears perked up on with this morning's discussion:

GROWING CONCERN AS EC/GFS TRACKING 
HOOK LOW OUT OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO FRIDAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY. NBM APPEARS WOEFULLY UNDERDONE WITH RESPECT TO POPS AND 
IN COLLABORATION WITH SOME SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE GONE 30/35/35 
BLEND OF NBM/GFS/EC RESPECTIVELY. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TOO IN WAKE
OF SYSTEM AS UPPER LOW CUTOFF DEEPENS OVER GREAT LAKES. THIS 
SYSTEM BEARS WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SIGNIFICANT 
WINTER STORM WITHIN ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. 
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Trends today seem to be suppressed way south. Big change from previous days which were showing a massive storm and likely blizzard for the upper Midwest. Curious if it trends back towards that or if this system will end up way south like today's model runs show. Euro, gfs, and cmc had been remarkably consistent days prior with something tracking from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes

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5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

IWX's ears perked up on with this morning's discussion:


GROWING CONCERN AS EC/GFS TRACKING 
HOOK LOW OUT OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO FRIDAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY. NBM APPEARS WOEFULLY UNDERDONE WITH RESPECT TO POPS AND 
IN COLLABORATION WITH SOME SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE GONE 30/35/35 
BLEND OF NBM/GFS/EC RESPECTIVELY. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TOO IN WAKE
OF SYSTEM AS UPPER LOW CUTOFF DEEPENS OVER GREAT LAKES. THIS 
SYSTEM BEARS WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SIGNIFICANT 
WINTER STORM WITHIN ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. 

Storm threads will probably be popping up every other day(or 2) for a few weeks. Winter Pt 2 is gonna be fun to watch.

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8 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Im liking the seasonably chilly week followed by extreme cold. It will allow us to retain this semi-decent snowpack (3" up on the escarpment). Looking at the next 7-14 days shows some light snow/mix but nothing to write home about. 

I do enjoy following big time Southern US snowstorms as some models have shown so that would be fun to track. 

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10 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Im liking the seasonably chilly week followed by extreme cold. It will allow us to retain this semi-decent snowpack (3" up on the escarpment). Looking at the next 7-14 days shows some light snow/mix but nothing to write home about. 

I do enjoy following big time Southern US snowstorms as some models have shown so that would be fun to track. 

Remind me: Guelph?

Can't say I'm as content with cold and dry as you are. Really the bane of my existence.  But February has been our money month snowfall wise the last 15 years or so, so I'm reasonably optimistic. 

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Just now, WHEATCENT said:

my bad, they're just so close together. interesting, it stays snow at 35F over ohio 

18z is showing what my model is suggesting. A clipper system zipping into the lakes. What it does for sure I haven't worked out. Keeping tabs on this one before it. 

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2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Remind me: Guelph?

Can't say I'm as content with cold and dry as you are. Really the bane of my existence.  But February has been our money month snowfall wise the last 15 years or so, so I'm reasonably optimistic. 

Hamilton Mountain just off highway 6. I should probably switch my name haha 

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See overnight AFD for my thoughts on this one. No longer concerned about a snowpack nuke which is nice. Would certainly prefer a snowpack net gain like NAM/RGEM and last night's GEM solution. Not putting my eggs fully into that basket yet with so much ensemble spread and NAM and RGEM rather far out in their range, but tend to favor the colder outcome which could include light-mod snow accums in parts like above mentioned solutions.

Think that even in a change to rain outcome there would be a freezing rain risk in the morning. Probably a decent chance we end up needing an advisory for parts of the area. With sloppy non snow ptypes possible into parts of the area and support for post polar front precip with crashing temps could also see a rare flash freeze type setup materialize.

Models like the GFS commonly overdo surface warming when southeast surface winds are pulling from a lower dew point air mass and we have extensive deep snow pack. Also think it's possible previous runs have not been accounting for wet bulbing aloft enough.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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