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Feb 3rd - 5th Potential strong stm threat


Brian D
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2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Wish i was in Michigan for this. Looks like macomb is getting heavy bands redeveloping overhead. Might be the jackpot area.

Around 4” and 3.5” of it fell in under 90 mins. It was awesome and I did not see thundersnow. 

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Quite a mini storm tonight. Finished with 4.2" of packing snow in about 4 hours however as I mentioned the 1st 3" fell in the 1st hour and a half. At 24.2" on the season.  Technically the biggest storm of the season is still the 4.3" on Nov 30/Dec 1st but it goes without saying that tonights storm was much more exciting. 

 

DTW was at 1/8 mile visib for near an hour, you often don't see that in many 8 to 12" storms. They received 4.1" which is their largest on the season so far (they had 3.9 Nov 30/Dec 1) and are at 23.7" season. I did not see thundersnow but there were lightning strikes detected over the river. Snow is actually compacting a bit now it is very dense and there's a little bit of dripping but the flash freeze is a few hours away. Deep winter returns to Michigan :wub:.  Going to use the snowblower in the morning, it will be interesting to see what a heavy packing snow on cement turns into when the temperature plummets into the low teens.

Screenshot_20210204-234803_Gallery.jpg

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Solid event around here today. Unfortunately missed the first round of ++SN but woke up in time for next round, then the backside snow and wind this evening has been solid.

Considering much of the modeling had this as a rainer a week ago, no complaints even though I bought into that for a bit (was just trying to jinx it ).

Regarding headlines for this event, without a true impact based winter storm criteria, we're kind of just left to wing it and decide on a case by case basis. The WSW we issued for the NW CWA was definitely for impacts and largely to match up DVN and MKX (they ended up going with a WWA).

As it turned out, and probably not too surprisingly, open areas outside of the warning had some legit winter storm impacts this evening and of course when the heavy snow came through it was briefly extremely low visibility. It's a tough call on these since you'll have a good amount of time with WWA impacts and the more sustained winter storm type impacts. I was also surprised DVN never upgraded any part of their CWA to a BZ.W, as they we're strongly considering one. Not always true but my perception is that they generally prefer to have the same winter
headline for their whole CWA, eastern IA posters can confirm.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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They pulled the plows here in this part of Whiteside County earlier this evening as they just couldn't keep up with the redrifting of snow.  The road here is currently drifted shut, with a good 2ft of snow all the way across the road from the open field just to the north.  Hopefully the plows are back out by early morning.

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Very solid event here. Have 3.4” so far, and hopefully will add a little more if the defo band clips us. As mentioned earlier, the rates were insane. Most of that fell in about 1.5 hours. Already had strong winds inside the snow, now waiting for the real westerlies to kick in and flash freeze everything. Shoveled a bit ago specifically so everything isn’t frozen. I’m up to 26.0” on the season. 

Of course, obligatory video: 

 

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Total IMBY is for the synoptic event is right around 6".  I think about 3 fell in the WAA event, then there was a "warm sector lull" as the center of the low passed nearby, then the cold front swung through with an additional burst that added up another 3".  It was pretty wet and heavy shoveling.  Definitely more synaptic than lake effect.  Also a lot of accumulation on tree branches, signs, etc... despite 40 mph+ wind gusts last night.  Think it's frozen on.

Lake effect has underpeformed.  Just very light mood flakes.  Kinda positioned between bands all day.  Less than an inch so far.  Might pick up in intensity or at least fill in some this evening though.

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15 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Total IMBY is for the synoptic event is right around 6".  I think about 3 fell in the WAA event, then there was a "warm sector lull" as the center of the low passed nearby, then the cold front swung through with an additional burst that added up another 3".  It was pretty wet and heavy shoveling.  Definitely more synaptic than lake effect.  Also a lot of accumulation on tree branches, signs, etc... despite 40 mph+ wind gusts last night.  Think it's frozen on.

Lake effect has underpeformed.  Just very light mood flakes.  Kinda positioned between bands all day.  Less than an inch so far.  Might pick up in intensity or at least fill in some this evening though.

LES has been alternating between light and moderate/heavy all day.  No way of measuring when my yard is either bare grass or a drift.  Looking forward to more this evening and overnight.

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3 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

LES has been alternating between light and moderate/heavy all day.  No way of measuring when my yard is either bare grass or a drift.  Looking forward to more this evening and overnight.

It seems like the SE side has been stuck between bands most of the day.

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7 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

0:10 I legit thought that white car had been launched onto the cab of that truck for a moment, before realizing it was a car hauler.

While I was counting down minutes to the blinding snow band with this storm, the general public just hear "Winter weather advisory", the same thing they issue when you grind out to 2-4" over 12 hours they issue when you go from dry to near 0 visib in minutes and 2"+/hr rates.  I know people who were caught driving in it the other night that said they could not see anything in front of them. I know NWS recently started doing snow squall warnings but it still seems the advisory/warning system is quite flawed with the variety of weather we can see. 

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