StormfanaticInd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 51 minutes ago, Baum said: To be honest, even you need a powerhouse cutter to head into the upper lakes to release the cold south. Once established your in the game. Perhaps not until. Sometimes a short term negative is a longer term positive. I actually agree 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 hours ago, madwx said: the pattern is shifting with this weekends storm. The west based -NAO will become an east based -NAO. That's why this storm will be able to cut much further west. So it sounds like we needed a happy medium -NAO to get the last storm and this weekend's storm to stay stronger longer, without cutting too far west like this third storm is expected to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It'll take some pretty wholesale changes to avoid rain in northern IL with this setup. I continue to hope that the operational ECMWF is too amped and to slow to swing the occluding cold front through. 00z Euro was slower than the ensemble mean and a good deal slower than the GFS's and the GEM. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z GFS comes in a bit slower and more amped. Gets the low down to 975 over SW Wisconsin on Thursday evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 meanwhile the 12z GFSv16 has the trough ejecting much slower which allows it to be suppressed and drives a 986 low through Chicago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 23 minutes ago, madwx said: meanwhile the 12z GFSv16 has the trough ejecting much slower which allows it to be suppressed and drives a 986 low through Chicago looks like 12z GEFS mean is around MLI then to just NW of MKE a couple members SE of that since it seems N IL gets more snow around this time on them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 One thing about this system, if it does cut like it's modeled we could be in for a really bad time for flooding. 40's/50's with rain on top of a snowpack of potentially 12-18" over a large area sounds like a good way to get major flooding. Add in the frozen ground and ice on the lakes and yeah it's not looking good. To make matters worse, after this storm we could get really really cold. Like 2019 cold wave cold. I could easily see a situation where we have march 2019 style flooding with massive ice jams and then everything just refreezes. Hopefully this doesn't happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 If this pans out as rain and the cold flows in, maybe not as dramatic as the GFS advertises, in the week following, talk about glaciers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 CMC shows a completely different scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 ready 2 b buried 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 1:53 PM, Baum said: no worries. one of my favorite winter storm keys comes into play here; the storm will be pushed south by the existing snowpack. and quad cities AFD takes the bait:"THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA (ESPECIALLY AFTER THE WEEKEND SYSTEM) 'SHOULD' PROVIDE A NEGATIVE FEEDBACK AND HELP ENHANCE THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. SUCH AN ENHANCEMENT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY STORM TRACK EITHER OVER THE AREA OR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 they were riding the 18z GFS before it came out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 1:49 PM, Brian D said: My modelling is suggesting a potential strong storm developing. A clash of air masses with this one is more typical of early spring. Strong ridging to the E and NW of the region will allow energy from the W to be funneled NE through the lakes. I might get a chance to have another blizzard from this system, or at least someone might, along with thunderstorms for others. Hope this one pans out. Have a week to see what happens for sure. 18z GFS and my model looking the same. What it does from there we shall see. Pretty typical tho that I get the frigid air while others get stormy wx this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: ready 2 b buried Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Storm is going south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 33 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Storm is going south. 18z gfs weak and south but snow for IL and IND 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I'll take what the 18z GFS runs are selling. Pass on snowpack nuking and hydro issues. Lots of time to go. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 22 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I'll take what the 18z GFS runs are selling. Pass on snowpack nuking and hydro issues. Lots of time to go. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I will buy as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 In other news we have gotten rid of the nasty cutter on the 00z GFS 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 This storm is giving me "the one" vibes. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Lo and behold the cutter is no more!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 hours ago, Stebo said: I will buy as well! Really buying what the GFS is selling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: Lo and behold the cutter is no more!!! on the gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: This storm is giving me "the one" vibes. I agree. This has some big potential if it can come together right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 When in a strong blocking pattern do not believe the cutters in the medium to long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, Baum said: on the gfs. ... and the GFSv16, Canadian, and UK. If the northern stream outruns/bypasses the southern stream, which is what models are beginning to show, then anything could happen after that. The southern wave could get dragged along and sheared (tonight's UK), or it could hang way back and get picked up by the next northern stream wave (other models). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Track notwithstanding, powerful trough/jet streak + good moisture transport + cold air dumping in behind = potential for a blockbuster storm should the trough ejection go properly here (00z UK is an example of how that can be screwed up). 00z parallel GFS was dumping some stupid numbers over NE and IA. Edit: 00z Euro also an example of how the ejection can get screwed up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I'd gladly be wrong on my calls on this one. So much time for this one but the changes we've seen on the operational run are good ones to end up with a snow event a few days after northern stream dominant frontal passage. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just give me a week of clippers like the old days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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