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Feb 3rd - 5th Potential strong stm threat


Brian D
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This is quite a storm here. Especially seeing as we probably only have 4-5” of new snow once this is all said and done. Obs/webcams/road conditions suggest blizzard criteria will easily be met across northwestern portions of DVN’s CWA. That, combined with their forecast of only 1-2” for IC and 2-3” for CR, they really dropped the ball with this one. As much as I hate to say it. 

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
151 PM CST THU FEB 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     SNOW             3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT     41.74N 87.78W
02/04/2021  M1.4 INCH        COOK               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ACCUMULATION IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR.
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17 minutes ago, hlcater said:

This is quite a storm here. Especially seeing as we probably only have 4-5” of new snow once this is all said and done. Obs/webcams/road conditions suggest blizzard criteria will easily be met across northwestern portions of DVN’s CWA. That, combined with their forecast of only 1-2” for IC and 2-3” for CR, they really dropped the ball with this one. As much as I hate to say it. 

 

Screen Shot 2021-02-04 at 2.48.52 PM.png

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2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

This was their story immediately before that, as of 10pm last night. 

While I had not yet bought into the jackpot totals on some models, no models were predicting anything less than 3" in Cedar Rapids.  At the time, my point forecast said 1-3", which didn't really make sense.

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40 minutes ago, Chinook said:

This band of snow in Indiana right now has no stations reporting snow under the band-- only stations to the southwest are reporting snow. Maybe it is just a timing thing, or maybe there is significant virga?

b1cQWBh.jpg

Several stations in MI and IN are now report SN- and SN.

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picking up again. Going to need a rally to get to my 3" wishcast.

Zone Forecast looks nice:

TONIGHT  
VERY WINDY. SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SNOW IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF  
FLURRIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS  
OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS 7 TO 11 ABOVE. LOWEST  
WIND CHILL READINGS ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH  
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON  
BECOMING WEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO  
45 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT.

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