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Feb 3rd - 5th Potential strong stm threat


Brian D
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Just now, McHenrySnow said:

Because I was told yesterday that it was not going to get so much higher than forecast as it did yesterday. 

I wouldn't worry much about what the temperature does between now and the flip early this afternoon.

Still think we'll see about 2"-3" of new snow this afternoon.

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1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

Either way i think he still has better potential in berkley.

Wish I lived in the hills. But still think I’m far enough north to not have to worry so much. Kinda glad I’m sick right now so I don’t have to be up early Friday morning to clear snow

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REA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
1047 AM CST THU FEB 4 2021  
   
UPDATE  
  
1047 AM CST  
  
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES  
PLANNED.   
  
THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO SUPPORT AN PERIOD OF  
MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE SEE  
THIS WITH THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT ASSOCIATED   
WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE, AND STRONG LOWER-LEVEL   
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. THIS  
YIELDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THERE BEING SOME RESPECTABLE   
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.   
  
WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE BEGINNINGS OF THIS EVENT, WITH   
PRECIPITATION NOW DEVELOPING INTO NORTH CENTRAL IL. THE   
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS BEGINNING AS A SHORT (<1 HOUR) PERIOD OF   
RAIN AND SLEET. THIS IS DUE TO A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WAS SAMPLED  
OFF A RECENT AMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF KRFD TO BE AROUND 3.5C AT   
850MB. WHILE A WARM LAYER OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD NORMALLY BE   
CAUSE FOR CONCERN, THIS WARM LAYER IS ALSO FAIRLY DRY, WHICH WILL  
YIELD HIGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS THROUGH  
THE LAYER. FOR THIS REASON, WE EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME THE DOMINANT  
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITHIN AN HOUR OF PRECIPITATION START TIME.   
THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND OVER THE KDVN AREA, WHERE THEY QUICKLY   
TRANSITIONED OVER TO SNOW.   
  
OUR HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW STILL LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON  
ROUGHLY FROM ABOUT 1 PM THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. DURING THIS   
PERIOD THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY WET SNOW COULD YIELD SNOW RATES UP   
TO AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO WIND   
DOWN BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES   
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, EXPECT OUR   
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY TURN WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN   
MAGNITUDE. IT APPEARS WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH FOR A   
PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING SOME OVERNIGHT. THIS CAUSES   
CONCERN FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TONIGHT, IN  
SPITE OF THE SNOW FALLING TODAY BEING A WETTER TYPE. THE HIGHEST   
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE IN   
MORE WIDE OPEN AREAS OUTSIDE MORE URBAN AREAS.   
  
COLD THEN BECOMES THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN IN THE TEENS.   
  
KJB  

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7 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said:

Wish I lived in the hills. But still think I’m far enough north to not have to worry so much. Kinda glad I’m sick right now so I don’t have to be up early Friday morning to clear snow

 Hope you feel better. Too bad your sick this could be one where you really want to video the rates

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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 Hope you feel better. Too bad your sick this could be one where you really want to video the rates

Pfffft I’ll be out videoing anyway. Just tested negative for a certain pandemic causing virus and I’m feeling okay so far today. Bring on the tssn 

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