WxMatt21 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 FWA and surrounding areas quite a bit colder than modeled thanks to clearing. Think HRRR has the right idea. 0Z NAM has FWA getting into the upper 30s Thursday afternoon, but it also had us at 24 by midnight. We're 16 right now. 00z HRRR has us getting to 33/34, it had us modeled at 19 by midnight. This colder solution will obviously translate to a better shot at getting more snow than rain. Still expecting about 1-2" here, though wonder if we could see an overachiever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Looks like a solid 2” to 5” event for the Detroit area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, WxMatt21 said: FWA and surrounding areas quite a bit colder than modeled thanks to clearing. Think HRRR has the right idea. 0Z NAM has FWA getting into the upper 30s Thursday afternoon, but it also had us at 24 by midnight. We're 16 right now. 00z HRRR has us getting to 33/34, it had us modeled at 19 by midnight. This colder solution will obviously translate to a better shot at getting more snow than rain. Still expecting about 1-2" here, though wonder if we could see an overachiever. Forecast low of 24 here. Current temp of 13. Was forecasted to be a high of 36 earlier Wed. never got above 25. Talk about underestimating a mini glacier snowpack. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The forecast high here on Thursday is 35. Looking at this, I wouldn't be too surprised if we overachieve a bit prior to precip arrival. Some pretty mild air lurking upstream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 37 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The forecast high here on Thursday is 35. Looking at this, I wouldn't be too surprised if we overachieve a bit prior to precip arrival. Some pretty mild air lurking upstream. Yea models are generally underdoing WAA. Probably of little practical significance other than perhaps a slight delay to the changeover to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 This is a fairly high impact event if I'm reading it correctly. 2"-4" of snow in a 3-4 hour window with high winds and rapid falling temps from above freezing to the ice box. Hopefully it verifies as this is a fun event to continue our winter's comeback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 just hoping to luck my way into some tssn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Quad cities always good for the hype train: ONIGHT'S FORECAST HAS ALL THE FEEL OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE FORECAST. THERE IS A DANGER THAT SEEMS TO EXIST IN ALL VARIABLES I'M SEEING, THOUGH NONE ARE STANDING OUT IN TRADITIONALLY OBVIOUS WAYS. THIS MAKES THIS FORECAST PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING, AS IT'S REALLY THE COMBINED EFFECT OF ALL VARIABLES THAT WE EXPECT TO CAUSE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. SNOW TOTALS TODAY, WHILE HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECASTS, REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 6 INCHES. RAINS WILL FALL TODAY, WHICH WILL INITIALLY SERVE TO LIMIT THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT FROM EXISTING SNOW, BUT ONCE NEW SNOW FALLS, THAT "CRUST" COULD POTENTIALLY SERVE TO HAVE A LOW FRICTION SURFACE FOR NEW SNOW TO BLOW OVER. THIS IS WELL HANDLED BY OUR CURRENT HEADLINES, WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH TO ADVISORY SOUTH, WHERE LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED AND SOMEWHAT LESS WIND. THIS ALL SAID, I AM CONCERNED THAT HEAVY SNOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, AND BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID INCREASE TO 40 MPH WINDS. THAT COULD FOR A SHORT DURATION TIP THE SCALE TOWARDS BLIZZARD WARNING FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL TREAT THIS AS A CONVECTIVE THREAT, AND IF WE NEED TO UPGRADE AN AREA OF THE CWA, WE CAN DO IT ONCE THE THREAT BECOMES MORE OBVIOUS. AT THIS STAGE, THE DANGER IN OUR FORECAST, IS ALSO TAKEN WITH A NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY OF SEVERITY. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 "THERE IS A DANGER THAT SEEMS TO EXIST IN ALL VARIABLES I'M SEEING, THOUGH NONE ARE STANDING OUT IN TRADITIONALLY OBVIOUS WAYS." is one weird sentence 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: "THERE IS A DANGER THAT SEEMS TO EXIST IN ALL VARIABLES I'M SEEING, THOUGH NONE ARE STANDING OUT IN TRADITIONALLY OBVIOUS WAYS." is one weird sentence Sounds like some UNCERTAINTY SEVERITY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 About as good as it gets w/ lapse rates at SGF this morning, though dry air is factoring in. 8.9C/km max mid-level lapse rates, and 8.3 from 700-500mb, w/ 147 J/kg of MUCAPE. Max lapse rates 2-6km are similar in a pretty large area of the warm sector. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 ORD plumes for this are slightly above 3 and then jump to 8 for the next round Sunday. Four of them are 12+ by Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Been ripping pretty good this morning. Inch down so far. Good luck to those further east 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 could be really heavy snow for a few hours this evening. Snow will probably end as drizzle then flash freeze. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Mixed precip about to start here with the initial waa band. The main show should start around 11 with heavy snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Hrrr locked in with ~4” tonight. Should be ripping for a few hours. Hope to get some TSSN. It’s been since 2/20/14 that I’ve had TSSN imby, though I did experience TSSN with a couple visible CG’s in a snow squall in Macomb county in Feb 2017. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 We had a period of FRDZ overnight as there was a glaze under the fresh snow on the sidewalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Getting some sleet here to start off the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 30 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said: Hrrr locked in with ~4” tonight. Should be ripping for a few hours. Hope to get some TSSN. It’s been since 2/20/14 that I’ve had TSSN imby, though I did experience TSSN with a couple visible CG’s in a snow squall in Macomb county in Feb 2017. Incredibly I saw thundersnow 3 times during the 2007-08 Winter and that was after being royally screwed on the actual January 1st storm. Also saw thundersnow GHDI but not GHDII (even tho ghdI saw 10" and ghdII saw 17"). I also saw it February 20, 2014 and with a squall Feb 1 2017. I believe that was the last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 48 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said: Hrrr locked in with ~4” tonight. Should be ripping for a few hours. Hope to get some TSSN. It’s been since 2/20/14 that I’ve had TSSN imby, though I did experience TSSN with a couple visible CG’s in a snow squall in Macomb county in Feb 2017. Afraid of warmer air and tongue sneaking in here on the east side. Thundersnow and better potential for overachieving out your way in oakland county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Afraid of warmer air and tongue sneaking in here on the east side. Thundersnow and better potential for overachieving out your way in oakland county. I don’t think he lives in the hills. I think he’s in southern oakland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 mostly freezing rain here with a few sleet pellets mixed in. Sidewalks are slick but roads seem fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st0rmbrkr Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Hey, could someone give me a little breakdown on why totals are dropping for the Milwaukee area and what is the possibility to overachieve? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 We've had a mix of sleety-snow and snow for the last hour, but it's changing to snow... about on schedule. The question for us has always been how robust will the precip shield be? Given the current look on radar, I don't think the higher totals some models have been spitting out will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 34.7º here this morning. I'm thinking 2" max here at this point. I can definitely see some areas overachieving and others underachieving. Anxious to see just how robust some of these bands can get this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 26 minutes ago, dmc76 said: I don’t think he lives in the hills. I think he’s in southern oakland. Either way i think he still has better potential in berkley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Heavy snow band looks to roll through the Detroit area between 7 and 10:00 p.m. this evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Looks like a straight thunderstorm just east of Iowa City? At least on radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Looks like a straight thunderstorm just east of Iowa City? At least on radar That's bright banding, where precip is mixing and/or snow is melting. No lightning in that area though the precip is convective. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Heavy snow band looks to roll through the Detroit area between 7 and 10:00 p.m. this evening Major Rippage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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