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Feb 3rd - 5th Potential strong stm threat


Brian D
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FWA and surrounding areas quite a bit colder than modeled thanks to clearing. Think HRRR has the right idea. 0Z NAM has FWA getting into the upper 30s Thursday afternoon, but it also had us at 24 by midnight. We're 16 right now.

00z HRRR has us getting to 33/34, it had us modeled at 19 by midnight. This colder solution will obviously translate to a better shot at getting more snow than rain. Still expecting about 1-2" here, though wonder if we could see an overachiever. 

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1 hour ago, WxMatt21 said:

FWA and surrounding areas quite a bit colder than modeled thanks to clearing. Think HRRR has the right idea. 0Z NAM has FWA getting into the upper 30s Thursday afternoon, but it also had us at 24 by midnight. We're 16 right now.

00z HRRR has us getting to 33/34, it had us modeled at 19 by midnight. This colder solution will obviously translate to a better shot at getting more snow than rain. Still expecting about 1-2" here, though wonder if we could see an overachiever. 

Forecast low of 24 here.  Current temp of 13.  Was forecasted to be a high of 36 earlier Wed. never got above 25.  Talk about underestimating a mini glacier snowpack.

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37 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The forecast high here on Thursday is 35.  Looking at this, I wouldn't be too surprised if we overachieve a bit prior to precip arrival.  Some pretty mild air lurking upstream.

 

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Yea models are generally underdoing WAA. Probably of little practical significance other than perhaps a slight delay to the changeover to snow. 

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This is a fairly high impact event if I'm reading it correctly. 2"-4" of snow in a 3-4 hour window with high winds and rapid falling temps from above freezing to the ice box. Hopefully it verifies as this is a fun event to continue our winter's comeback.

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Quad cities always good for the hype train:

ONIGHT'S FORECAST HAS ALL THE FEEL OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE FORECAST.   
THERE IS A DANGER THAT SEEMS TO EXIST IN ALL VARIABLES I'M SEEING,   
THOUGH NONE ARE STANDING OUT IN TRADITIONALLY OBVIOUS WAYS. THIS   
MAKES THIS FORECAST PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING, AS IT'S REALLY THE   
COMBINED EFFECT OF ALL VARIABLES THAT WE EXPECT TO CAUSE DANGEROUS   
CONDITIONS.  SNOW TOTALS TODAY, WHILE HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECASTS,   
REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 6 INCHES.  RAINS WILL FALL TODAY, WHICH WILL   
INITIALLY SERVE TO LIMIT THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT FROM EXISTING SNOW,   
BUT ONCE NEW SNOW FALLS, THAT "CRUST" COULD POTENTIALLY SERVE TO   
HAVE A LOW FRICTION SURFACE FOR NEW SNOW TO BLOW OVER.  THIS IS WELL   
HANDLED BY OUR CURRENT HEADLINES, WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH   
TO ADVISORY SOUTH, WHERE LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED AND SOMEWHAT LESS   
WIND.    
  
THIS ALL SAID, I AM CONCERNED THAT HEAVY SNOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE   
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, AND BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID INCREASE TO 40 MPH   
WINDS.  THAT COULD FOR A SHORT DURATION TIP THE SCALE TOWARDS   
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL   
TREAT THIS AS A CONVECTIVE THREAT, AND IF WE NEED TO UPGRADE AN AREA   
OF THE CWA, WE CAN DO IT ONCE THE THREAT BECOMES MORE OBVIOUS.  AT   
THIS STAGE, THE DANGER IN OUR FORECAST, IS ALSO TAKEN WITH A NOTABLE   
UNCERTAINTY OF SEVERITY.  

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30 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said:

Hrrr locked in with ~4” tonight. Should be ripping for a few hours. Hope to get some TSSN. It’s been since 2/20/14 that I’ve had TSSN imby, though I did experience TSSN with a couple visible CG’s in a snow squall in Macomb county in Feb 2017. 

Incredibly I saw thundersnow 3 times during the 2007-08 Winter and that was after being royally screwed on the actual January 1st storm.  Also saw thundersnow GHDI but not GHDII (even tho ghdI saw 10" and ghdII saw 17"). I also saw it February 20, 2014 and with a squall Feb 1 2017. I believe that was the last time. 

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48 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said:

Hrrr locked in with ~4” tonight. Should be ripping for a few hours. Hope to get some TSSN. It’s been since 2/20/14 that I’ve had TSSN imby, though I did experience TSSN with a couple visible CG’s in a snow squall in Macomb county in Feb 2017. 

Afraid of warmer air and tongue sneaking in here on the east side. Thundersnow and better potential for overachieving out your way in oakland county.

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3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Afraid of warmer air and tongue sneaking in here on the east side. Thundersnow and better potential for overachieving out your way in oakland county.

I don’t think he lives in the hills. I think he’s in southern oakland. 

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