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Feb 3rd - 5th Potential strong stm threat


Brian D
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1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said:

At the end of the day, I agree more with an impact-based system, just not sure those counties will experience anything drastically different from the rest of N IL. The general public doesn't know and doesn't care about "criteria" anyhow. 

That's a fair point.  Conditions look like they will be pretty similar in the advisory and warning areas.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

RC said they are shifting more impact based, so with the wind/blowing snow/rapid temp drop factors, that may be why they went with a warning despite amounts generally staying under criteria.

Agree. The winds will be howling and even though it's cement, there will be some reduced visibilities, some drifting, and a possible flash freeze. I would like to see NWS offices do more of this, rather than worry so much about their verification scores.

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GRB just released WSW's for their entire CWA. Around here by Green Bay they are calling for 5-9" which seems pretty reasonable IMO. The wind probably won't be AS big of an issue here as further south but it will still be pretty bad. Fortuantley where I am at least is relatively protected being at the bottom of the Fox valley and all that. Still going to suck walking to classes though.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
308 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

.SHORT TERM...
307 PM CST

Through Thursday night...

A quick Bottom Lines Up Front AFD here, with a full technical
discussion by 430 PM.

The Winter Storm Watch has been converted to a Winter Storm
Warning for Lee, Ogle, Winnebago, and Boone Counties, with a start
time that`s been moved up slightly to 10 AM Thursday. While
snowfall amounts have not materially increased in the warning
(3-5" with isolated amounts to 6" possible), the combination of a
period of rather heavy, convectively-driven rates coinciding with
the afternoon/evening commute, rapidly increasing snow:liquid
ratios and a likely period of fairly strong westerly winds gusting
to 40 if not 45 mph by later Thursday afternoon and evening were
concerning enough to warrant an impacts-based warning there.

To the east of the warning, we`ve layered on a Winter Weather
Advisory where slightly lower snowfall amounts (generally in the
2-5" range, although we`ll note a potential for overperformance
given the impressive lapse rate plume with this system) and a
slightly shorter window of stronger winds are expected to help
mute impacts a bit more. Still, as it stands right now, guidance
suggests that the Thursday afternoon/evening commute won`t be
terribly pleasant, with a period of potentially heavy snowfall
coinciding with the rush. Marginal surface temperatures near or
even just above freezing may help blunt the threat for
accumulation on the main thoroughfares (outside of heavier rates),
but reduced visibilities, and the potential for sharply falling
temperatures into the evening spells at least a non-zero potential
for a flash freeze scenario where wet roadways remain.

Think the threat for accumulating snowfall is more or less over by
midnight Thursday night, but the threat for blowing snow will
continue overnight and into Friday.

Full technical discussion will be issued by 430 PM.

Carlaw
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A little more optimistic than yesterday since we're dealing with more of an elongated pressure trough into the afternoon and not the earlier rapid deepening sfc low (a good thing while you're still in the "warm" sector) but still enough concerns over temps that I'm hesitant to go beyond 2-3" here.  If temps can end up just a tick colder, then could probably add an inch or maybe two to that. 

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Is ILX having issues today? Said AFD was out at 223pm but still showing last nights. I personally think IL River and points west should have WWA. Most models showing 1-2in and equally strong winds. Some models have a quicker changeover here. More excited for the next few waves after this one because they actually have potential south of I80! 

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