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Feb 3rd - 5th Potential strong stm threat


Brian D
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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Let's be clear.  Temps tomorrow could be a bit of an issue, but using today to try to gauge what is going to happen tomorrow is not really useful.  Totally different circumstances.

Didn't say otherwise. Yeah, tomorrow we'll have clouds, but also actual warm air advection. 

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14 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Right...but it's still annoying.  Is UHI/albedo causing this?

I can assure you there is no urban heat island significantly affecting temps in McHenry or Lake Zurich. The snow on the ground is keeping us this cool, if the ground were bare, we would likely be into the 40s. 

Different story in the heart of the city, certainly. And that will likely be a big player into the accums in the city with such marginal temps as is. 

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2 minutes ago, Baum said:

LOT with warning for Watch areas. WWA for 2"-5" north of I-80.  Beats the modeled snow eater from 4 days ago.

Interesting.  Seems like it's more of an impact based decision with the wind component since there doesn't look to be very many 6"+ amounts.

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Somewhat of an odd storm evolution - if you simply looked at the SLP track, it looks like a classic mid-west snowstorm but surface features don't really play out that way (looks more like a glorified frontal passage). Much like the last storm, models have been fairly consistent with roughly .5 qpf for mby. I think 3-5" looks like a good call.

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1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said:

Quite interesting. Definitely wouldn't have thought they'd do that. Haven't really seen anything that would meet the requirements.

RC said they are shifting more impact based, so with the wind/blowing snow/rapid temp drop factors, that may be why they went with a warning despite amounts generally staying under criteria.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

RC said they are shifting more impact based, so with the wind/blowing snow/rapid temp drop factors, that may be why they went with a warning despite amounts generally staying under criteria.

At the end of the day, I agree more with an impact-based system, just not sure those counties will experience anything drastically different from the rest of N IL. The general public doesn't know and doesn't care about "criteria" anyhow. 

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1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said:

At the end of the day, I agree more with an impact-based system, just not sure those counties will experience anything drastically different from the rest of N IL. The general public doesn't know and doesn't care about "criteria" anyhow. 

Better chance for higher accumulation and somewhat less-wet snow, which would increase the impact out that way.

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