HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 And don't forget the massive wind factor in this event, so it's all gonna go everywhere too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 23 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The GEM makes sense when you look under the hood. SLP doesn’t really deepen until it’s passing NE of the area. WAA doesn’t take off until east as well, and 850’s are actually out of the west of a period of time. On the flip side, the GFS has good snows further south for a different reason. It has the SLP strengthening sooner, with more WAA sooner and further west. However, the further south track helps bring the good snows further south. . Ok, fair points. That being said, I think it would be foolish at this point to expect several inches out this setup where I am. Maybe there's a better shot of that in far northern IL. At least it looks like we'll break even or possibly gain some snowcover here before we move on to the weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 euro with some cold frosting it seems is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Ok, fair points. That being said, I think it would be foolish at this point to expect several inches out this setup where I am. Maybe there's a better shot of that in far northern IL. At least it looks like we'll break even or possibly gain some snowcover here before we move on to the weekend. Valid. I'm not even fully sold for here as of yet, even though trends have been more favorable overall. I'd probably go 1-3" along/north of I-88 for now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, Baum said: euro with some cold frosting it seems is all. yep it backoff it 0z run here locally and has 2-4 for the northern tier of counties in IL. It is quite clear that the GFS and GEM have a much better handle on this event (haha). Lets see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: . How much of that in SW Michigan is post-frontal lake-enhanced snow? WAA stuff will be dense, but behind the front I'm assuming 10:1 is on the low end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I am definitely liking where I am sitting for this one. Some models have me getting close to a foot. That would be so nice up here. Man to have most of the state of Wisconsin have over 10" of snow OTG right before a massive cold outbreak would be awesome. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Buzzkill Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 KLOT not impressed with snow chances and agrees with Hoosier The jet core will continue to strengthen as the system treks eastward which should be able to drum up a decent surface low via cyclogenesis along the developing baroclinic zone as lead dome of colder air funnels into the trough axis. As the system nears the Great Lakes, the increased strengthening evidenced via the negative tilting of the trough and increased frontal strengthening should lead to a significant deepening of the associated surface low. We will be maintaining a southeast surface wind over the snowpack as warm south/southwest flow off the surface pumps in some warmer air aloft. This suggest there could be small window for brief freezing rain at onset Thursday morning, though it does not look to be long lived. Precip type appears to be snow north initially and rain south, with a generally changeover to a mix or rain for most areas except for northwest of Chicago which could remain as a wet snow. The period of highest confidence for precipitation is Thursday afternoon with the left exit of the upper jet in place, maximized isentropic lift, and strong q-vector convergence fields with the increased height falls. This would be the wild card period if snow remains dominant near and northwest of Chicago, but with system strengthening/deepening the pattern of maintaining warmer air aloft suggests the layer would warm enough unless precip rates were to remain sufficiently strong. There are some model differences in the strength of the low, but all generally show a stronger system with a deepening low with a fairly significant pressure rise on the back side as colder air funnels on in. This is the period of continued upper low strengthening combined with the strong surface cold front. Bitterly cold air accompanied by a "wall of wind" behind the front should result in a rapid changeover to snow if it had not occurred already. QPF should be starting to taper, but there appears a window time where forcing, decent lapse rates aloft, cold air, and strong pressure rises could result in a brief period of moderate snow and wind gusts in excess of 40 mph Thursday later in the evening and dangerous travel conditions. This does appear to be well after the evening commute. At this time model guidance has not changed much with the overall snow forecast, maybe slightly higher for snow near Rockford and less farther south and east, with the highest probabilities of a few inches of snow (maybe several north central IL) northwest of Chicago. The combination of snow and wind could certainly warrant some kind of winter weather alert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Re; LOT AFD: ^ not RC. Disregard. That said, the last line is more telling. And 2-4" North and West burbs and 1"-2" along the I-88 corridor with wind and temps crashing should be fun. Potential for more is still on the table.. Reread that write up again, and think it's pretty good and actually think they are fairly impressed. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 No major changes on the 18z NAM it appears. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 3k NAM actually increased totals across LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Both 18z NAMs actually do flip it to snow here on Thursday afternoon. Even if that were to occur, there would still be the boundary layer temp issue to contend with, which would likely cut into accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 20 minutes ago, Baum said: Re; LOT AFD: ^ not RC. Disregard. That said, the last line is more telling. And 2-4" North and West burbs and 1"-2" along the I-88 corridor with wind and temps crashing should be fun. Potential for more is still on the table.. Reread that write up again, and think it's pretty good and actually think they are fairly impressed. Interesting that 18z NAM has more snow via both Kuchera and 10:1 closer to metro Chicago and less and NW and west which is against the KLOT forecast. Just happy that the system went away from a rainer and snow eater. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 21 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: No major changes on the 18z NAM it appears. Pretty big changes upstairs (see below), but it didn't really translate to much difference at the surface. The splotchiness of snow accumulations in these parts is indicative of dynamic cooling. Probably going to have to rely on that south of ~88/290 as others have mentioned. Don't think we should disregard that scenario given the ingredients showing up on a lot of guidance: steep lapse rates, 500-250mb left exit region dynamics, highly focused WAA, but air temps will almost certainly be above freezing for at least a few hours S/SE of wherever the surface low ends up tracking. Whatever snow ended up falling in those areas may not accumulate on roads (unless it's heavy) but could add to the snow depth a bit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Feeling pretty good for a couple solid quick inches across SE Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Despite my pessimism, I can appreciate that we are even discussing the possibility of snow with a setup like this. There are plenty of times you aren't snowing immediately out ahead of a sfc low this deep. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 Well, I hope you guys enjoy. My model did ok showing this system. Thought it had a better chance coming my way. Oh well, 3-6" of powder before the Arctic relocates is ok too. Snow pack good enough to handle the cold, which is a good thing. Go for it Cheese Heads and Polar Bears lol ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Pretty big changes upstairs (see below), but it didn't really translate to much difference at the surface. The splotchiness of snow accumulations in these parts is indicative of dynamic cooling. Probably going to have to rely on that south of ~88/290 as others have mentioned. Don't think we should disregard that scenario given the ingredients showing up on a lot of guidance: steep lapse rates, 500-250mb left exit region dynamics, highly focused WAA, but air temps will almost certainly be above freezing for at least a few hours S/SE of wherever the surface low ends up tracking. Whatever snow ended up falling in those areas may not accumulate on roads (unless it's heavy) but could add to the snow depth a bit. Yeah, the nice thing is snow will stick to snow, so even if we wouldn't see much on paved surfaces, it might be enough to counteract melting and/or increase total depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 And Btw, next on the list is around the 10th. Gonna look at that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I keep thinking back to January 2019, the week of the extreme cold from the displaced polar vortex and remember a system that had what would normally be a garbage track for Chicago surprise us with an all snow front end thump. I believe we got 3 or 4" in the city. It warmed up above freezing and we had drizzle the rest of the day and then the arctic front eventually made it through the area the next day or so? Anyhow, this reminds me of that somewhat. Not necessary the atmospheric setup, but the heavy wet snow preceding the arctic blast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 rgem goin south you all smelling that miss south stank yet? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 16 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: rgem goin south you all smelling that miss south stank yet? yep on the 12z we had a deepening low in central wisconsin on the 18z we have a weakening low going thru southern IL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 It was sarcasm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 31 minutes ago, Brian D said: Well, I hope you guys enjoy. My model did ok showing this system. Thought it had a better chance coming my way. Oh well, 3-6" of powder before the Arctic relocates is ok too. Snow pack good enough to handle the cold, which is a good thing. Go for it Cheese Heads and Polar Bears lol ! What is "your model"? Keep seeing you reference it but only image you have posted is a paint rendered image. Are you referring to something like LRC/BSR/Heady Pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, WeatherMonger said: What is "your model"? Keep seeing you reference it but only image you have posted is a paint rendered image. Are you referring to something like LRC/BSR/Heady Pattern? No, it's my own creation. Sorry for the simple maps, tho. Not a graphics person. Just a simple paint program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 44 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: Feeling pretty good for a couple solid quick inches across SE Michigan. It would be interesting if it comes in like a wall of snow like January 18th last year. of course that was a much bigger storm, but still 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: It would be interesting if it comes in like a wall of snow like January 18th last year. of course that was a much bigger storm, but still Yes sir we are looking good for a 1-4" thump before the deep freeze 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cartier God Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, Brian D said: No, it's my own creation. Sorry for the simple maps, tho. Not a graphics person. Just a simple paint program. i thought i seen it all. mans fuked up in the crib makin models final call for east lansing: 4 inches of love 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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