purduewx80 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 This system is a far cry from what was modeled a few days ago and still may try to bomb out Thursday night. Gone are the 40-50-degree snow-eating dew points. The complication with this one is due to the number of shortwaves that make up the trough, and of course all of the blocking. Models are now cutting off the southern wave shown on WV below and are showing increasing separation between it and the trough that affects us. That energy off the coast of Alaska is what ends up triggering cyclogenesis that passes through the area Thursday. The 18Z Euro and EPS made baby steps towards a more southerly solution. With screaming southerly flow ahead of the long wave trough, warm air will at least sneak in for a bit, perhaps after most of the WAA precip has shut off for many areas. Note that guidance is also trending wetter with the WAA and possible comma head precip associated with the new low. Snow can definitely occur closer to the low track than usual due to the amount of lift and dynamic cooling that occur. LOT's concern for a flash freeze Thursday night is legit should all of this pan out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 This is more for W IL and IA, but one thing to keep in mind with this system are the pristine conditions that will exist for blowing and drifting snow associated with the passage of the arctic front and departing low. GFSs gust 45-50mph, NAM/Euro 40-45. Additionally, rain showers and melting in the warm sector will ensure that the existing snowpack will have a layer of ice on top of it, exacerbating any blowing that does occur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Tonight's Euro with a nice surprise for northern Illinois. It's very similar to other models with its shifting of the energy southward, but while other models have more snow focused on Iowa, the Euro is east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 For those up tracking, we will be ramping up our winter weather messaging for Thursday in collab with WPC. Still concerned for freezing rain within the CWA earlier and now with trends of a lot of the guidance and strong ensemble support with a decided shift southward we're liking idea of accumulating snow, strong winds and blowing snow across northern IL Thursday night. Flash freeze scenario still in play as well since it does look like all areas should briefly rise above freezing. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 ^ winter '21 continues to ramp up a decent come back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 6 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GEFS Mean. Several ENS have 3-6” around here, with a few 6”+. Even one with 12”+ across N IL. . up again at 6z, would be nice to see a few more bumps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 up again at 6z, would be nice to see a few more bumpsIndeed. Shall see how things trend today.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 0z EPS Mean a bit behind the GEFS, but still not terrible. It did bump south. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Plumes say meh, little less than 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Plumes say meh, little less than 1"Given the NAM is further north and more meh, that’s not surprising.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 This has certainly trended more favorable from the initial brief torch and rain from days ago,.but i still never trust models lol. Hoping for a.wet snow thump then flash freeze. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Thinking a solid couple inches of wet snow in SE MI before the freeze. Then all eyes move onto Sunday which is looking better and better. ALA 6z EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 56 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Plumes say meh, little less than 1" 09Z jumped up just over 2” at ORD but has a spread from 0-7”, with a bit of a cluster from 3-4”. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 12z NAM has jumped nw big time. Models will need more time to figure this out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Another miss East and south incoming for the twin cities I’m afraid. Hopefully we can net a couple quick inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z NAM has jumped nw big time. Models will need more time to figure this out. I'm not a great model output guy. But I'm not seeing that. In fact, snowshield here minus the actual low pressure seems to have improved versus 00Z, Again, surging arctic fronts with a a wave riding along it can over perform nicely beyond model output....sometimes. This looks like it has this make up from a weenies blind eye. 3K even better. Not sure it matters at this long distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z NAM has jumped nw big time. Models will need more time to figure this out. It is totally different with the upper energy on every run. Most of the short waves involved still aren’t in its domain so it will probably jump around for at least another 24 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, Baum said: I'm not a great model output guy. But I'm not seeing that. In fact, snowshield here minus the actual low pressure seems to have improved versus 00Z, Again, surging arctic fronts with a a wave riding along it can over perform nicely beyond model output....sometimes. This looks like it has this make up from a weenies blind eye. 3K even better. Not sure it matters at this long distance. Agree there are now 2 precip maxes 1 which did jump nw and 1 over chicago metro which the 6z had .2 the 12z now has .5 to .7 (i am not sure that all of the 12z precip would be snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baum said: I'm not a great model output guy. But I'm not seeing that. In fact, snowshield here minus the actual low pressure seems to have improved versus 00Z, Again, surging arctic fronts with a a wave riding along it can over perform nicely beyond model output....sometimes. This looks like it has this make up from a weenies blind eye. 3K even better. Not sure it matters at this long distance. It's NW some, definitely not "big time." And yes, temps are cooler and shows much more snow across the area than 0z. Though the 3K totals around hour 60 make more sense than the 12k imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: Agree there are now 2 precip maxes 1 which did jump nw and 1 over chicago metro which the 6z had .2 the 12z now has .5 to .7 Yeah, QPF shows a bigger difference than low placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 rgem still a hit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: rgem still a hit A very good hit for the vast majority of LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Even the 3k NAM is nothing like the 12k NAM. As Purdue mentioned, another 24 hours for the various pieces of energy to present themselves will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Low party at @A-L-E-K's house Thursday night per 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 rgem still a hit Ticked a bit south, and cooler.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 28 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: A very good hit for the vast majority of LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 12z GFS a bit colder and snowier. 12” just north of cyclone. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Might the NW burbs win this round? @Cary67 and I would appreciate it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said: Might the NW burbs win this round? @Cary67 and I would appreciate it. Early on you are correct, but any time after 84 hours or so any place down wind of the Great Lakes will wind up being the winner. Looks like the lakes will finally produce snow in many of the normal LES regions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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