Spartman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 00z GFS: 00z UK: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 06z GFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 no matter what. Thread needs a new title. I recommend, " Maps by Spartman" 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Useless poster, not even funny 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 IWX's ears perked up on with this morning's discussion: GROWING CONCERN AS EC/GFS TRACKING HOOK LOW OUT OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO FRIDAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. NBM APPEARS WOEFULLY UNDERDONE WITH RESPECT TO POPS AND IN COLLABORATION WITH SOME SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE GONE 30/35/35 BLEND OF NBM/GFS/EC RESPECTIVELY. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TOO IN WAKE OF SYSTEM AS UPPER LOW CUTOFF DEEPENS OVER GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WITHIN ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/30/2021 at 10:45 AM, Harry Perry said: This. This is the one. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Trends today seem to be suppressed way south. Big change from previous days which were showing a massive storm and likely blizzard for the upper Midwest. Curious if it trends back towards that or if this system will end up way south like today's model runs show. Euro, gfs, and cmc had been remarkably consistent days prior with something tracking from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 @A-L-E-K input please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 hours ago, IWXwx said: IWX's ears perked up on with this morning's discussion: GROWING CONCERN AS EC/GFS TRACKING HOOK LOW OUT OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO FRIDAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. NBM APPEARS WOEFULLY UNDERDONE WITH RESPECT TO POPS AND IN COLLABORATION WITH SOME SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE GONE 30/35/35 BLEND OF NBM/GFS/EC RESPECTIVELY. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TOO IN WAKE OF SYSTEM AS UPPER LOW CUTOFF DEEPENS OVER GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WITHIN ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. Storm threads will probably be popping up every other day(or 2) for a few weeks. Winter Pt 2 is gonna be fun to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The lake effect potential next week on this side of the lake has my full attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Last six months esp. have been so dry here. I'll take rain ma nature, just no whiff to the south please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 15 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Last six months esp. have been so dry here. I'll take rain ma nature, just no whiff to the south please. Euro has a mostly wiff south, same areas that get the nor'easter get pounded again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: Euro has a mostly wiff south, same areas that get the nor'easter get pounded again. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sEj8lUx0gwY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sEj8lUx0gwY Im liking the seasonably chilly week followed by extreme cold. It will allow us to retain this semi-decent snowpack (3" up on the escarpment). Looking at the next 7-14 days shows some light snow/mix but nothing to write home about. I do enjoy following big time Southern US snowstorms as some models have shown so that would be fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Im liking the seasonably chilly week followed by extreme cold. It will allow us to retain this semi-decent snowpack (3" up on the escarpment). Looking at the next 7-14 days shows some light snow/mix but nothing to write home about. I do enjoy following big time Southern US snowstorms as some models have shown so that would be fun to track. Remind me: Guelph? Can't say I'm as content with cold and dry as you are. Really the bane of my existence. But February has been our money month snowfall wise the last 15 years or so, so I'm reasonably optimistic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 15 hours ago, Spartman said: 00z GFS: 00z UK: So we go from a 975 MB MS River cutter to this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 welcome back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said: welcome back Different storm from this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naptown Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said: welcome back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 18Z GFS back to what it was showing a few days ago. Energy moving in from the SW along frontal boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, WHEATCENT said: my bad, they're just so close together. interesting, it stays snow at 35F over ohio 18z is showing what my model is suggesting. A clipper system zipping into the lakes. What it does for sure I haven't worked out. Keeping tabs on this one before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: Remind me: Guelph? Can't say I'm as content with cold and dry as you are. Really the bane of my existence. But February has been our money month snowfall wise the last 15 years or so, so I'm reasonably optimistic. Hamilton Mountain just off highway 6. I should probably switch my name haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 6 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: Last six months esp. have been so dry here. I'll take rain ma nature, just no whiff to the south please. We are in a minor drought here in SEMI. QPF has been minimal for a while now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 0Z suite basically just tells us there's a lot up in the air still lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 would be nice to keep this one mostly frozen to add to the pack heading into the vortex and ull snow chances 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 17 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: would be nice to keep this one mostly frozen to add to the pack heading into the vortex and ull snow chances Seems unlikely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 84hr 12z NAM showing a small refresher before the vortex visits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 84hr 12z NAM showing a small refresher before the vortex visits. I definitely think this is best case scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 RGEM similar to NAM. Most of us are above freezing, but the snowpack melting should be countered by any new additional snow at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 See overnight AFD for my thoughts on this one. No longer concerned about a snowpack nuke which is nice. Would certainly prefer a snowpack net gain like NAM/RGEM and last night's GEM solution. Not putting my eggs fully into that basket yet with so much ensemble spread and NAM and RGEM rather far out in their range, but tend to favor the colder outcome which could include light-mod snow accums in parts like above mentioned solutions.Think that even in a change to rain outcome there would be a freezing rain risk in the morning. Probably a decent chance we end up needing an advisory for parts of the area. With sloppy non snow ptypes possible into parts of the area and support for post polar front precip with crashing temps could also see a rare flash freeze type setup materialize.Models like the GFS commonly overdo surface warming when southeast surface winds are pulling from a lower dew point air mass and we have extensive deep snow pack. Also think it's possible previous runs have not been accounting for wet bulbing aloft enough. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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