EastCoast NPZ Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I want that low to get stuck and rotate back like Sandy Like that 2010 storm that retrograded WSW and crushed NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 seems to be some slight tics East since the 12z runs..... starting with the 12z Euro Ens, now the 18z Euro Ens and the NavGEM for what its worth.......all just noise at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: DC is in the dryslot from 96 hours to 116 which is when temps support rain. There is virtually no precip. Temps do warm to the mid 30s but I doubt that melts all the ~5” that fell in the general DC area. Probably compressed it down to 2-3” but that would happen frankly after ANY storm ends in a storm we don’t have Arctic air behind it. Think of it as 2 storms. A 5” snow followed by a 2-4” storm 15 hours later, yes with some melting in between. It’s probably 2-3” of frozen slush with 2-4” of powder on top (even with mediocre surface temps snow under that upper low would be high ratio fluff) in the end. That’s like the 3rd best snowstorm in DC the last 6 years!!! And that’s the “disaster”. You’re talking about the GFS right? Not the storm as depicted by the Euro/EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Like that 2010 storm that retrograded WSW and crushed NYC.Exactly the one I was thinking of when he posted that. What a storm that was around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Looks like it includes the MoCo @Bob Chill and HoCo @WxUSAF jackpot zones in there, too (higher probabilities)! That’s what I’m talking about! Actually, the NoVA jackpots the euro keeps spitting out is definitely giving me Jan ‘16 vibes. 9 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 18Z Control: is the control more reliable as we get closer? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: Is the mean low too far east... could we get fringed? Yes and yes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: You aren’t kidding. Oh yeah bullseye over my house is a lock made of plastic with the key next to it. Still impressive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Yes and yes. We're in the bullseye brother. Now what do we do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: An ENS Mean of over 1" QPF all snow is not significant enough? Ya. I like Rayno. But, truly, he has no love for Dulles/DC. Everything is about PA/Pitt/NY—like no matter what. Been that way for many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Wonderdog said: We're in the bullseye brother. Now what do we do? Hide 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: seems to be some slight tics East since the 12z runs..... starting with the 12z Euro Ens, now the 18z Euro Ens and the NavGEM for what its worth.......all just noise at this point Sounds like Boston should be worried 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Hurricanegiants said: Ya. I like Rayno. But, truly, he has no love for Dulles/DC. Everything is about PA/Pitt/NY—like no matter what. Been that way for many years. Think about where he lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The 10:1 map is pretty and all, but this right here is a tear-jerker... Sorry it's low quality, I had to shrink it a bit since it snows for 48 hours 6 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Think about where he lives. Very true. Very true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 This is probably the most consecutive big hits we have had in this time range since 2016, yes? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 So the gamut of solutions ~90 hours out includes total whiffs, and/or a mostly rain event (with over an inch of QPF)... I wish I could get more excited, but this is FAR from a 2016 setup, it appears. I am rooting for the GFS... just give me a 2-4 inch WAA snow, then maybe another 1-2 inches with the wrap-around showers, the Euro is threading a needle that is more likely to go the JMA/KMA/NAVGEM route. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 9 minutes ago, catoctin wx said: Exactly the one I was thinking of when he posted that. What a storm that was around here . That was more of a pure Miller B. Basically just bowling ball that dove southeast out of Canada. This one I’d say is Miller a/b 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceCAPS Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Hurricanegiants said: Very true. Very true That's true but one would think, being a national meteorologist with his audience, he'd give portrayals of these storms in totality and without discrimination. I love how he delivers his analysis but I too have noticed the northern MA and New England bias and hearing him today actually got me quite concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: The 10:1 map is pretty and all, but this right here is a tear-jerker... Sorry it's low quality, I had to shrink it a bit since it snows for 48 hours This looks beautiful. I'm assuming the only reason we aren't being blued/yellowed is because it's an ensemble run? That's my main issue. Our big storms, the deform and even WAA snows show 1-2 inches an hour, sometimes even higher. This shows like a quarter inch to a half inch an hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: So the gamut of solutions ~90 hours out includes total whiffs, and/or a mostly rain event (with over an inch of QPF)... I wish I could get more excited, but this is FAR from a 2016 setup, it appears. The Euro (which has verified the most this year) is consistently showing a big hit, and even the GFS showed significant snow at 18z. What are you talking about? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: So the gamut of solutions ~90 hours out includes total whiffs, and/or a mostly rain event (with over an inch of QPF)... I wish I could get more excited, but this is FAR from a 2016 setup, it appears. There is no reputable model that is a total whiff or mostly rain. Even the “disaster” GFS is 3-6” WAA/dry slot or rain to snow showers on the back-end. Yes, this is not locked in by any means to a solution but its hard to argue against the consistency of the EPS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: This looks beautiful. I'm assuming the only reason we aren't being blued/yellowed is because it's an ensemble run? That's my main issue. Our big storms, the deform and even WAA snows show 1-2 inches an hour, sometimes even higher. This shows like a quarter inch to a half inch an hour. This is the control run not a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Chatter about where to chase, sledding with your kids and if a model is NSFW belongs in banter 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: I am beginning to think the best case scenario is the GFS, the JMA/KMA are very concerning (and they typically assimilate PAC data better) Lol the JMA. I’d recommend if you’re gonna be pessimistic over this threat, to at least use good models to do so. And do it in banter. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: This is the control run not a mean. 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: This looks beautiful. I'm assuming the only reason we aren't being blued/yellowed is because it's an ensemble run? That's my main issue. Our big storms, the deform and even WAA snows show 1-2 inches an hour, sometimes even higher. This shows like a quarter inch to a half inch an hour. History also shows that these type storm tend to juice up more as we get closer assuming the low forms in the right place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 18Z EPS Probs 3, 6, 12 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: There is no reputable model that is a total whiff or mostly rain. Even the “disaster” GFS is 3-6” WAA/dry slot or rain to snow showers on the back-end. Yes, this is not locked in by any means to a solution but its hard to argue against the consistency of the EPS. Agree with this but there is still variability among the individual members so the mean should be taken with that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 37 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: This is exactly what we needed. I liked 6z and 12z better. More tucked slp. An escape southeast and late capture is by far the biggest threat to missing a big snow if your north of DC. Places southeast of DC would wave that but honestly if your more then 20 miles east of 95 you have to mix for places west of the fall line to get a huge snowstorm. I hate to be brutally honest but in almost every HECS for places like Winchester or IAD or me and mappy southeast of 95 has to mix. That doesn’t mean the can’t get a lot of snow. But sorry the eastern shore and the blue ridge aren’t both getting 20” snowstorms. If lower MD is getting a 20” pure snow I am probably smoking cirrus. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: So the gamut of solutions ~90 hours out includes total whiffs, and/or a mostly rain event (with over an inch of QPF)... I wish I could get more excited, but this is FAR from a 2016 setup, it appears. At this range I think you'd have to say anything is still on the table but I'm seeing 4 most possible scenarios. 1. The system stays a bit further north. We get a thump of snow Sunday but then the transfer to the coast occurs sloppy and north, leading to us getting some rain and maybe eventually ending as some wrap around snow showers as the storm pulls off. Basically something like what the GFS has been touting. 2. The coastal transfer to our southeast as being shown by the Euro. All would start as a thump of snow later on Sunday, but from there are the different outcomes. 2a. The coastal stays in the best placement off shore being not too close but not too far and we get our big one we are hoping for. 2b. The coastal hugs too far west and leads to a mix or changeover to rain for the height of the storm. 2c. The coastal is too far east, keeping the bulk of the precipitation out of our areas. Also, 2016 was pretty rare. Not often does this area have the ability to nail down a monster snowstorm from distance with no real concerns over details. Expecting every, or any, big winter storms to be as easy as that was is a pipe dream in most cases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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