LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: how does it compare to the 12z run? any slight changes? I’m a nobody but to my eyes it’s better. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: This looks beautiful to my eyes. How does precip look? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 looks like an ideal track 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Me likey....hints of the CCB on an ensemble mean. LFG. 7 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Me likey....hints of the CCB on an ensemble mean. LFG. Wow, I bet there are some beasts in the mean then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: Let’s be honest, per TT’s snow depth change it is a 2” storm on the front side with some wackiness on the back to pump it up. I dunno what the TT depth uses but about .4-.55 qpf falls before there is mixing across the general area low to high from EZF to Baltimore. I know WAA won’t have high ratios but I don’t see why they would be that low either. So that looks like a general 4-5” thump followed by dry slot then 2-4” with the upper low. Even if we toss the back end stuff that’s still by far the biggest snow for the area in a long time and I don’t see why we toss the upper low when something like that is showing on all guidance. Besides speculation that the run will be worse then it really is could happen with ANYTHING...it’s still kinda lol to see people calling a warning level snowfall a “disaster”. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Me likey....hints of the CCB on an ensemble mean. LFG. Snow mean up from 12z 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Good god yes. Look at that due almost East movement on the last panel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Mean of 6 inches here. The best i've seen so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 That's it, I am all in. Euro has not waivered at all and it is a beatdown 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Snow mean up from 12z It’s basically a perfect run IMO. QPF: 4 1 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The comma head looks great, but what's with the lack of significant precipitation? Low position also looks farther off the coast than we would like, at least to my untrained eye. I just watched Bernie Rayno's periscope. It was pretty good. He urged caution. Said it looks good for someone to get over a foot, but liked PA and NY and west of 95 for that. He said he is concerned how far south the energy dives and that the upper low has to cut off to get the storm up the coast. Also said there are lots of pieces of energy flying around, complicating things. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 9” through the cites. 11 out west. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 this is just silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Wb 144h. It's pretty. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Is the mean low too far east... could we get fringed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I dunno what the TT depth uses but about .4-.55 qpf falls before there is mixing across the general area low to high from EZF to Baltimore. I know WAA won’t have high ratios but I don’t see why they would be that low either. So that looks like a general 4-5” thump followed by dry slot then 2-4” with the upper low. Even if we toss the back end stuff that’s still by far the biggest snow for the area in a long time and I don’t see why we toss the upper low when something like that is showing on all guidance. Besides speculation that the run will be worse then it really is could happen with ANYTHING...it’s still kinda lol to see people calling a warning level snowfall a “disaster”. I still have nightmares about the Valentines Day 2014 storm. Got like 10-12 or so with the WAA and then got hit with drizzle and a dry slot. Snow melted a ton to just a few inches before backside came through with some heavy sleet and then some snow to end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: The comma head looks great, but what's with the lack of significant precipitation? Low position also looks farther off the coast than we would like, at least to my untrained eye. I just watched Bernie Rayno's periscope. It was pretty good. He urged caution. Said it looks good for someone to get over a foot, but liked PA and NY and west of 95 for that. He said he is concerned how far south the energy dives and that the upper low has to cut off to get the storm up the coast. Also said there are lots of pieces of energy flying around, complicating things. An ENS Mean of over 1" QPF all snow is not significant enough? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: Wb 144h. It's pretty. I know you’ve been waiting a long time for a decent storm. I hope you (we) finally get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I want that low to get stuck and rotate back like Sandy 5 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: I know you’ve been waiting a long time for a decent storm. I hope you (we) finally get it. I really have. I gave up hope I'd see one a while back lol, every winter has been blah after blah. I have yet to have a double digit snowfall. There was one storm (a couple years ago?) that was pretty decent? But nothing crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 anybody have the control ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: The comma head looks great, but what's with the lack of significant precipitation? Low position also looks farther off the coast than we would like, at least to my untrained eye. I just watched Bernie Rayno's periscope. It was pretty good. He urged caution. Said it looks good for someone to get over a foot, but liked PA and NY and west of 95 for that. He said he is concerned how far south the energy dives and that the upper low has to cut off to get the storm up the coast. Also said there are lots of pieces of energy flying around, complicating things. Lack? There's an inch on the mean. Thats pretty darn significant. Ofc it'll verify as .1 out here when all is said and done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Oh my. Perfect. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Not WW but 3 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 NAVGEM is a miss east.. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Control is not good though... it’s fantastic You aren’t kidding. 4 1 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: A clean 5-10 is a nice storm. This isn't that. I've seen storms like this before and they are garbage. You end up with hardly anything on the ground when it's over. Long duration with a front end followed by warming and rain to wash the first half away. DC is in the dryslot from 96 hours to 116 which is when temps support rain. There is virtually no precip. Temps do warm to the mid 30s but I doubt that melts all the ~5” that fell in the general DC area. Probably compressed it down to 2-3” but that would happen frankly after ANY storm ends in a storm we don’t have Arctic air behind it. Think of it as 2 storms. A 5” snow followed by a 2-4” storm 15 hours later, yes with some melting in between. It’s probably 2-3” of frozen slush with 2-4” of powder on top (even with mediocre surface temps snow under that upper low would be high ratio fluff) in the end. That’s like the 3rd best snowstorm in DC the last 6 years!!! And that’s the “disaster”. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: You aren’t kidding. Wow, wish we could lock that up. Kuchera would be a crushing. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: Not WW but Looks like it includes the MoCo @Bob Chill and HoCo @WxUSAF jackpot zones in there, too (higher probabilities)! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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