chris21 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, osfan24 said: A clean 5-10 is a nice storm. This isn't that. I've seen storms like this before and they are garbage. You end up with hardly anything on the ground when it's over. Long duration with a front end followed by warming and rain to wash the first half away. Yeah, 3-5 inches on the front end with temps in the upper 20s. Sounds exactly like this Mondays event. I’m going with osfan over psu here, all my chips are in. 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: Para is the real "disaster" (although still advisory lvl snow most places) with the surface low progressing well east, with flow changing NW which opens up the door on downsloping cutting into any ULL snow showers (I am not buying any snow the para is showing after 12-18Z Monday). Para is probably having convective issues and taking the low too far east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I’m waiting for one of the major models to blink. Maybe it’s the 18z EPS. Can’t go on forever. We should see watches in less than 72 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 41 minutes ago, osfan24 said: A clean 5-10 is a nice storm. This isn't that. I've seen storms like this before and they are garbage. You end up with hardly anything on the ground when it's over. Long duration with a front end followed by warming and rain to wash the first half away. I agree. Even two years ago, DC had a snowstorm that lasted 2 days, and dropped a foot from Saturday morning through Sunday evening. It was a great storm, but I imagine most people don't even remember it, because it was easy to forget. And that stayed all snow, for two days, but I think because there was a lull, there was considerable melting during the lull, especially in the city. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, real said: I agree. Even two years ago, DC had a snowstorm that lasted 2 days, and dropped a foot from Saturday morning through Sunday evening. It was a great storm, but I imagine most people don't even remember it, because it was easy to forget. And that stayed all snow, for two days, but I think because there was a lull, there was considerable melting during the lull, especially in the city. I was moving to Maryland that weekend in Jan 2019 from Alabama and delayed my move by a week because of road conditions (had a 2 wheel drive car). Since I moved I’ve been thinking I’d kill for a storm like that! Hopefully this is the one, and anymore more is gravy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, real said: I agree. Even two years ago, DC had a snowstorm that lasted 2 days, and dropped a foot from Saturday morning through Sunday evening. It was a great storm, but I imagine most people don't even remember it, because it was easy to forget. And that stayed all snow, for two days, but I think because there was a lull, there was considerable melting during the lull, especially in the city. !!! That was a nice event, part 2 really delivered and was quite delayed from part 1. We were on here all morning hemming and hawing about whether it would happen. Had some great rates during the end of the storm and finished with about 11 inches here in takoma park. Would love to replicate that Sunday and Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Any word on the euro? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 WB 18Z EURO compared to 12Z same time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO compared to 12Z same time. Keep em coming WW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Any word on the euro? Here's hr90, I can't really analyze much beyond since I lack the expertise, but 1mb weaker and a tad north compared to 12z Basically identical to the 12z EPS though which was our best look yet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 18z and 12z look very similar albeit both the SLP and 500 low are a touch north of 12z. EPS will go out to 144 so will capture the important parts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Man, the euro's positioning of the high is $! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Man, the euro's positioning of the high is $! Looks better compared to 12z, more expansive and a tiny bit stronger. It's damn cold in New York leading up to this, -10s to -20s as lows the day before. Temps def shouldnt be an issue for the front end thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: Looks better compared to 12z, more expansive and a tiny bit stronger. It's damn cold in New York leading up to this, -10s to -20s as lows the day before. Temps def shouldnt be an issue for the front end thump. That's a big difference compared to GooFuS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Not that you’d expect much differences in a 90hr forecast from one run to another, but the 18z is so close to 12z, that it might just be slight timing differences. Confluence differences in NE are a bit more distinctly different, but the shortwave and low look essentially identical. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Deck Pic said: Thanks Matt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I posted it last week when people got all excited about the gfs showing that mirage blizzard. The gfs is currently ranked dead last at 120 hours. It’ll slowly coave to the euro like it always does. I only personally ever use it at this range to verify that a storm is possible. Once under 84 hours it’s okay. The JMA has better verification statistically than the GFS at day 5 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Did anybody post the mean 18z eps precip total? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Did anybody post the mean 18z eps precip total? EPS not out yet. Should be in like 10-20 minutes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Did anybody post the mean 18z eps precip total? Not out yet 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Weaker primary earlier transfer on the 18z eps. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Weaker primary earlier transfer on the 18z eps. This is exactly what we needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 What does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 ILM, obx, then off va beach on the mean. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Hard to tell in the swarm, but seems like the tuck and stall off the coast is well liked by the 18z EPS maybe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: ILM, obx, then off va beach on the mean. how does it compare to the 12z run? any slight changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 People are gonna be quite happy with this EPS. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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