notvirga! Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 From @jacksillin on Twitter. “So what "squishes" the low in the ECMWF's depiction? A shortwave trough moving through New England Sunday PM. The northerly flow behind this feature suppresses the burgeoning storm on Monday, letting it slip SE on Tuesday. The GEM has this feature *much* weaker and farther NE.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The 3K NAM is kinda ugly...hopefully it juices up that WAA stuff....it is at the end of the run so we'll see. ICON incoming already at 09z Sun..seems to be one of the earliest models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: If you forced me to make a forecast right now, I'd put 2-4" for Sunday and another 1-2" with the 500 passage on Monday. That's still a nice 3-6" storm with maybe a bit of upside given some of the other guidance. Its still going to snow I think that's a very solid forecast imo given the trends right now. I like 3-6" with max to 8" for areas south of I-70. This has the 270 corridor from Urbana on SE as the jackpot spot given the WAA trajectory. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, mappy said: if you really believe "next" then see you for the next threat and dont post more about this. you guys gotta stop with this crap. I meant "next model run", but ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Here's an idea...now hear me out. Why don't we wait for the other 80% of the 12z suite to run before we annoyingly declare "NEXT! she's gone, etc?" Might very well be the case, but why don't we wait for more than just 1 model in the 12z suite? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I saw a couple of things from Twitter mets this morning: It seems like there's a couple of features that are still moving around (although the trend isn't really our friend for the CCB snows), so maybe all is not said and done? But this storm does remind me of the Jan 2005 storm in DC--we were supposed to get a major winter storm, and got pretty decent WAA snows, but then the phase/capture happened too late and PHL north got a good storm but our WSW was downgraded to a blowing snow advisory. But as others have said, it's our first snow of any kind in years, so I'll take what we can get... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RGEM with a nice transfer and low location 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: I meant "next model run", but ok. I'm sure you did. This thread is falling apart as people lose their minds, we don't need a "next" analysis because one model run shows the coastal in an unfavorable position. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: I meant "next model run", but ok. I mean based on your previous bodies of work, you do seem overly negative a lot it's not hard to imagine you meant next storm. But I'll take you at your word that you meant next model. That's sound advice. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 If we can believe the RGEM (usual caveats of being out of range), it's a beautiful storm for the entire area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 23 minutes ago, mattie g said: I realize that this is a bit of a complicated situation, but it's truly amazing that model consensus has actually been harder to come by as we've gotten closer! Losing respect for the EPS. I can't believe the latest possible trends. Still hopeful, but jeez it's never easy. Thought the EPS was solid after yesterday's runs. But, the overnight and this AM.'s Euro is a bit disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z RGEM is a beatdown for the DC-BMore corridor. Wow. 12’’+. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: If we can believe the RGEM (usual caveats of being out of range), it's a beautiful storm for the entire area Appears to fringe northern areas of the forum with the deform band so far through 74hrs. Slightly south of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RGEM is nice, keeps the primary into Kentucky with a clean handoff. Would be a solid 6" - 12" for everyone. Nothing extreme from the coastal, but it would be a nice icing on the WAA snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RGEM visual 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 ICON get's areas north and west with the deform so far through 81hrs. Sitting about 50 miles of OC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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