psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, WVclimo said: And PD II in 2003. Probably the greatest analog list ever, lol. That list looked like that 5 days before 2016 also. Obviously minus 2016 lol. Only other time they looked close to that good. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Endless light snow/snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: It really isn't THAT bad stand alone. People are comparing it to the Euro...so of course relative to that, it's awful. It's just a convoluted setup and progression...So there's really no way the GFS is going to get it right especially when we're talking about any sort of micro details. The Euro, with it's resolution, is probably more likely to get the features right. But really, ensembles are pretty valuable right now. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GFS still decides to stall a band of light-mod snow over the DC area from the costal/ULL. Weak for sure, but it's an improvement in that department 10:1 because Kuchera is contaminated by pervious event in some regions. Ninja'd That's an odd trajectory for that band...not that I'm complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Para is the real "disaster" (although still advisory lvl snow most places) with the surface low progressing well east, with flow changing NW which opens up the door on downsloping cutting into any ULL snow showers (I am not buying any snow the para is showing after 12-18Z Monday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Para took a step toward the Euro idea IMO. Despite a similar H5 look to the op GFS early on, the CAD is better represented (which should be the case with the para's finer vertical resolution). This feeds back to a stronger, earlier coastal development. Need that H5 to come across a bit further south to really be in business. eta: The low still escapes east - I was just comparing the H96-108 evolution. Also, seems to be setting up a repeat scenario D7-8. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 As bad as the dryslot is on the GFS it is still a 6-10 event for basically the entire subforum. Cant really complain if it ends up being right. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: As bad as the dryslot is on the GFS it is still a 6-10 event for basically the entire subforum. Cant really complain if it ends up being right. First, it's more like 4-8. Second, the warmer air and rain would make the ground reality much lower. I think you'll find we can absoLUTEly complain about that if it ends up being right ;-) 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, mattie g said: That's some serious stuff to have them as the top two analogs, but I see lots of Miller Bs in there, including... Boxing Day Boxing Day was a miller A it simply screwed us. You could make a (weak) argument it was hybrid because of the phase interaction with a NS wave but the real issue Imo was a weak wave that came across right in front that originally shunted the gulf wave to the south then the flow relaxed and it bombed due north but too late for us. WRT miller Bs you will always see some screw jobs in any analog list because frankly the difference between a big hit and a close miss is really minor on a pattern scale. If you go through some of the near misses and just look at h5 you can’t tell the difference from some of our HECS storms. I played that game once to prove a point. It’s hard to tell apart the screw jobs from the hecs at h5. That’s what makes them screw jobs. They had huge potential but didn’t perform. We will always be at risk of that from range. Especially given our southwest most locations of the northeast hecs zone. We need everything to come together the fastest. A late phase. A suppressed STJ so the storm has to develop a precip shield late. A messy transfer. A west primary that holds too long. They all can get their act together in time the further northeast you go but any of those factors kills us. We are always playing with fire here in ANY big coastal setup no matter how good it looks at range. Jan 2005 looked like a 2 foot DC hecs from 5 days then the stj got shunted southeast and it became all NS. Just this December every global was saying 12”+ for a while then the mid level issues appeared. The only totally safe setup here is a WAA wave with a cold high in front. And we kinda have that here except the wave is actually shearing out again as it moves east so we become dependent on the coastal for a lot of the snow. That’s a boom but also bust scenario. Right now I favor boom but bust is always lurking to set @Ji off! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Still running, but GEFS is certainly better. Weaker primary cluster/slightly south (Compared to 12z), earlier transfer on some members. QPF panels for costal aspect look improved. Not a full on cave but its getting closer. This would've been the GEFS progression in the Thursday threat where we knew what was gonna cave to what, that's for sure. Ninja'd! 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 great improvement on the GEFS (late to the party here so feel free to delete if this doesn't belong). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 It’s a slow bleed but the GfS seems to be caving in similar fashion to what we just saw on Sunday/Monday this past week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Look how wet it is off the coast. Perhaps we could argue that it trends at least a good bit wetter on guidance as the king's ensembles have been consistently more amped over the past day or so. And that's only 144 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 39 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Some decent snow/snowshowers on Monday as the 850 mb low goes to our north and east and gets squeezed. Lol at ppl tossing this like it’s garbage. Yea it’s not the euro hecs but a 5-10” area wide snowstorm is not something you label a fail unless you have no concept of our climo. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 It looks like the ridging is marginally better compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: It’s a slow bleed but the GfS seems to be caving in similar fashion to what we just saw on Sunday/Monday this past week It does appear that way. And obviously even the GFS solution still snows on us so I’d say we’re looking good! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 This one def is about to jackpot RVA and folks going to flip out. Just hoping we don’t take all the snow and leave some crumbs for our late night crew. 1 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Rvarookie said: This one def is about to jackpot RVA and folks going to flip out. Just hoping we don’t take all the snow and leave some crumbs for our late night crew. Good luck, Richmond jackpots like 1 out of 1,000,000 snowstorms 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol at ppl tossing this like it’s garbage. Yea it’s not the euro hecs but a 5-10” area wide snowstorm is not something you label a fail unless you have no concept of our climo. Fredericksburg falls in the “screw zone” on the 18z GFS and still gets ~6” so yeah it’s nice and it’s moving a certain way....I’ll take that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Since it's an off time, didn't see anyone comment, but the 18z RGEM looks much more "Euroish" than "GFSish". On 500 Vort. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 14 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Good luck, Richmond jackpots like 1 out of 1,000,000 snowstorms He is definitely trolling. None of us down here feel like we’re going to jackpot. Probably a snow to rain to back to snow event for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol at ppl tossing this like it’s garbage. Yea it’s not the euro hecs but a 5-10” area wide snowstorm is not something you label a fail unless you have no concept of our climo. Let’s be honest, per TT’s snow depth change it is a 2” storm on the front side with some wackiness on the back to pump it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 When people are tossing the "worst" looking model relatively speaking, and it still shows a general 4-8 with 12'' lollies, you know this is legit 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Not sure it is worth much but 18z ENS mean is basically a 4-8" storm for DC metro and 6-10" for the usual favored locations. But given the storm progression, you really wouldn't forecast those amounts....you'd break it up and probably end up with less than the sum of its parts. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Not sure it is worth much but 18z ENS mean is basically a 4-8" storm for DC metro and 6-10" for the usual favored locations. But given the storm progression, you really wouldn't forecast those amounts....you'd break it up and probably end up with less than the sum of its parts. Snow maps really cloud people’s vision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I’d like to see the gfs ens mean precip totals if anybody has them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol at ppl tossing this like it’s garbage. Yea it’s not the euro hecs but a 5-10” area wide snowstorm is not something you label a fail unless you have no concept of our climo. A clean 5-10 is a nice storm. This isn't that. I've seen storms like this before and they are garbage. You end up with hardly anything on the ground when it's over. Long duration with a front end followed by warming and rain to wash the first half away. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d like to see the gfs ens mean precip totals if anybody has them 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 People in here still cliff diving over the 18z GFS Snowmap. Damn. We need the euro to come save us asap. When is the 18z Euro running? Should be soon, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: A clean 5-10 is a nice storm. This isn't that. I've seen storms like this before and they are garbage. You end up with hardly anything on the ground when it's over. Long duration with a front end followed by warming and rain to wash the first half away. Exactly this. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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